TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13052198
Played Sep 1Finished
Bartlomiej Mrugala
Home
1.58
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
7111131191311––
Kacper Marchlewski
Away
2.18
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:14 and never touched — 56.9% is still 56.9%
Graded at full timeBartlomiej Mrugala to win
56.9%
56.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
76 points played in total.
Set by set
7111131191311––
H2H Bartlomiej Mrugala 5–3 Kacper Marchlewski Kacper Marchlewski has won 3 of their 8 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 11:14What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.58 (58%)
Mrugala
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-3 in 8
Mrugala
Correct
gap of 2 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mrugala 1256 vs Marchlewski 1159
Mrugala
Correct
both rated, 97 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mrugala 60% vs Marchlewski 20%
Mrugala
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mrugala 50% vs Marchlewski 30%
Mrugala
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Mrugala +3 · Marchlewski -2
Mrugala
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Mrugala) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Marchlewski form (20%) is below what odds imply (46%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMrugala 1.58 / Marchlewski 2.18
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Mrugala)+1.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13052198
Mrugala1.58
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite50% won 66 of 133
Up 2–0, closes it96% 24 of 25
Up 1–0, closes it77% 44 of 57
Marchlewski2.18
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog34% won 36 of 107
Down 0–1, comes back11% 6 of 55
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 29
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeMrugala5wins
AwayMarchlewski3wins
4 of 8 to a deciderMrugala leads 5–3, and 4 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMrugala100%3 of 3
AwayMarchlewski75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mrugala3Marchlewski4n = 7Marchlewski took 4 of 7
S2Mrugala3Marchlewski4n = 7Marchlewski took 4 of 7
S3Mrugala4Marchlewski3n = 7Mrugala took 4 of 7
S4Mrugala3Marchlewski3n = 6split evenly
S5Mrugala2Marchlewski1n = 3Mrugala took 2 of 3
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home225%
3–2Decider, home338%
2–3Decider, away113%
1–3Four sets, away113%
0–3Straight, away113%
These 8 meetings
MetricMrugalaMarchlewskiMrugala − MarchlewskiBasisWins53+2in 8 meetingsFirst set34−1of 7Avg pointsper match44.041.0+3.0per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMrugalaMarchlewskiBasisWin rate · lifetime286 / 631 vs 135 / 30945.3%43.7%286 / 631 vs 135 / 309Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.536.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MrugalaMrugala 1.58/Marchlewski 2.18
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
59.2%
Mrugala · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Mrugala won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
WJul 28 · 22:55B. Mrugala—111114113K. Marchlewski—851681
LJul 28 · 24:10B. Mrugala—7911111K. Marchlewski—11116133
WJul 27 · 20:30B. Mrugala—111289113K. Marchlewski—810111162
WMar 22 · 17:55B. Mrugala—791411113K. Marchlewski—111112962
LMar 22 · 24:20B. Mrugala—118130K. Marchlewski—1311153
WMar 21 · 22:00B. Mrugala—11811113K. Marchlewski—611551
LMar 21 · 18:45B. Mrugala—91111792K. Marchlewski—119611113
B. Mrugala10
LSep 2 · 24:10B. Mrugala1.668970K. Marchlewski2.051111113LSep 1 · 23:20B. Mrugala1.857111031J. Rolak1.8511912113WSep 1 · 21:55B. Mrugala1.901311511113B. Wisniewski1.8015711692WSep 1 · 21:30B. Mrugala1.911111113W. Gluszek1.803680LSep 1 · 20:30B. Mrugala1.908114101J. Rolak1.8011811123LSep 1 · 18:55B. Mrugala2.2011791132D. Szlubowski1.57711119113WSep 1 · 17:45B. Mrugala2.1011118113W. Gluszek1.63681141LSep 1 · 16:15B. Mrugala1.95891281B. Wisniewski1.70111110113WSep 1 · 24:35B. Mrugala2.171111113M. Piecowski1.597880WAug 31 · 23:45M. Piecowski1.9811116972B. Mrugala1.73991111113
K. Marchlewski10
WSep 3 · 24:35K. Marchlewski2.001111113W. Gluszek1.718980WSep 2 · 23:45M. Piecowski1.83611591K. Marchlewski1.8611411113LSep 2 · 22:35K. Marchlewski1.8512940M. Kowalczyk1.801411113LSep 2 · 21:55M. Piecowski1.8511911113K. Marchlewski1.80711991WSep 2 · 19:40K. Marchlewski2.001111113P. Strus1.735670LSep 2 · 18:30K. Marchlewski2.24811881W. Gluszek1.5511911113WSep 2 · 17:20K. Marchlewski1.71117118113M. Piecowski1.9841191182LSep 2 · 16:15M. Piecowski1.831110118113K. Marchlewski1.8681241172LSep 2 · 15:25K. Marchlewski1.802950M. Kowalczyk1.901111113WSep 2 · 24:10B. Mrugala1.668970K. Marchlewski2.051111113
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