TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13090078
Played Sep 7Finished
Bartlomiej Mrugala
Home
2.35
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
611511911––––
Mateusz Trela
Away
1.51
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 01:22 and never touched — 59.6% is still 59.6%
Graded at full timeBartlomiej Mrugala to win
59.6%
59.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
53 points played in total.
Set by set
611511911––––
H2H Bartlomiej Mrugala 5–2 Mateusz Trela Mateusz Trela has won 2 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 01:22What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.51 (61%)
Trela
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-2 in 7
Mrugala
Wrong
gap of 3 in 7, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mrugala 1244 vs Trela 1352
Trela
Correct
both rated, 107 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mrugala 40% vs Trela 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mrugala 50% vs Trela 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Mrugala -2 · Trela +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% — Clear lean (leans Trela) · live re-read · sealed at 40% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Trela form (40%) is below what odds imply (66%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMrugala 2.35 / Trela 1.51
Signal prob.37% / 63%
Edge (Trela)+2.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13090078
Mrugala2.35
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog44% won 115 of 261
Down 0–1, comes back21% 27 of 132
Down 0–2, comes back6% 4 of 66
Trela1.51
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite54% won 143 of 263
Up 2–0, closes it93% 52 of 56
Up 1–0, closes it70% 95 of 135
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeMrugala5wins
AwayTrela2wins
2 of 7 to a deciderMrugala leads 5–2, and 2 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMrugala100%3 of 3
AwayTrela50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mrugala3Trela4n = 7Trela took 4 of 7
S2Mrugala5Trela2n = 7Mrugala took 5 of 7
S3Mrugala6Trela1n = 7Mrugala took 6 of 7
S4Mrugala3Trela2n = 5Mrugala took 3 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home229%
3–1Four sets, home229%
3–2Decider, home114%
2–3Decider, away114%
1–3Four sets, away114%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 7 meetings
MetricMrugalaTrelaM − TBasisWins52+3in 7 meetingsFirst set34−1of 7Avg pointsper match40.038.1+1.9per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMrugalaTrelaBasisWin rate · lifetime290 / 640 vs 805 / 164845.3%48.9%290 / 640 vs 805 / 1648Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.538.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TrelaMrugala 2.35/Trela 1.51
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
63.1%
Trela · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Trela won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
LMay 14 · 13:00B. Mrugala—81282062M. Trela—11101118113
WMay 6 · 13:00B. Mrugala—51113113M. Trela—1151151
WApr 20 · 17:30B. Mrugala—124119123M. Trela—1011811102
LApr 1 · 13:00B. Mrugala—861261M. Trela—111110113
WMar 25 · 14:00B. Mrugala—61112113M. Trela—1171081
WMar 12 · 14:00B. Mrugala—1111113M. Trela—6870
WMar 5 · 11:05B. Mrugala—1111113M. Trela—7890
B. Mrugala10
WSep 8 · 18:30P. Ostachowski2.00811831B. Mrugala1.7111411113WSep 8 · 17:45K. Golaszewski1.9712981142B. Mrugala1.691011118113WSep 8 · 16:55B. Mrugala1.80119211133J. Rolak1.86811119112LSep 8 · 15:50B. Mrugala2.10115861D. Szlubowski1.6571111113WSep 8 · 24:10M. Trela1.66681111102B. Mrugala2.05111179123WSep 7 · 23:45B. Mrugala1.741112113K. Golaszewski1.9191060LSep 7 · 22:55B. Mrugala2.234111181J. Przewlocki1.5311137113WSep 7 · 21:05B. Mrugala2.0017612113W. Iwasyszyn1.7215111081WSep 7 · 19:40B. Mrugala1.831111113P. Strus1.838870WSep 7 · 18:30B. Mrugala2.2511157113J. Przewlocki1.544131171
M. Trela10
LSep 8 · 24:10M. Trela1.66681111102B. Mrugala2.05111179123LSep 7 · 23:20M. Trela1.86811811132W. Iwasyszyn1.83119117153WSep 7 · 21:55M. Trela1.701116113K. Golaszewski2.0081460WSep 7 · 21:30M. Trela1.95811811113J. Przewlocki1.7411811462LSep 7 · 20:30W. Iwasyszyn1.85851111113M. Trela1.8011118352WSep 7 · 19:20M. Trela1.761491110133J. Nosiadek1.901211612112WSep 7 · 18:10P. Strus2.203111181M. Trela1.6011613113WSep 7 · 16:55J. Przewlocki1.85881471M. Trela1.85111112113WSep 6 · 23:20A. Myszewski1.91815100M. Trela1.771117123LSep 6 · 22:35A. Linek1.60412811113M. Trela2.15111011842
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