TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13091771
Played Sep 8Finished
Bartlomiej Mrugala
Home
2.10
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
117511811611––
Dariusz Szlubowski
Away
1.65
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:17 and never touched — 61.5% is still 61.5%
Graded at full timeDariusz Szlubowski to win
61.5%
61.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
70 points played in total.
Set by set
117511811611––
H2H Bartlomiej Mrugala 1–6 Dariusz Szlubowski Bartlomiej Mrugala has won 1 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 10:17What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.65 (56%)
Szlubowski
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-6 in 7
Szlubowski
Correct
gap of 5 in 7, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mrugala 1291 vs Szlubowski 1315
Szlubowski
Correct
both rated, 24 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mrugala 80% vs Szlubowski 20%
Mrugala
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mrugala 60% vs Szlubowski 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Mrugala +2 · Szlubowski +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Szlubowski) · live re-read · sealed at 62% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Szlubowski form (20%) is below what odds imply (61%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMrugala 2.10 / Szlubowski 1.65
Signal prob.42% / 58%
Edge (Szlubowski)+1.6pp
TT Elite Series · #13091771
Mrugala2.10
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog44% won 116 of 261
Down 0–1, comes back21% 28 of 131
Down 0–2, comes back6% 4 of 66
Szlubowski1.65
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite61% won 82 of 135
Up 2–0, closes it89% 33 of 37
Up 1–0, closes it80% 51 of 64
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeMrugala1wins
AwaySzlubowski6wins
2 of 7 to a deciderSzlubowski leads 6–1, and 2 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMrugala33.3%1 of 3
AwaySzlubowski100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mrugala3Szlubowski4n = 7Szlubowski took 4 of 7
S2Mrugala3Szlubowski4n = 7Szlubowski took 4 of 7
S3Mrugala1Szlubowski6n = 7Szlubowski took 6 of 7
S4Mrugala3Szlubowski3n = 6split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home114%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away229%
1–3Four sets, away343%
0–3Straight, away114%
These 7 meetings
MetricMrugalaSzlubowskiM − SBasisWins16−5in 7 meetingsFirst set34−1of 7Avg pointsper match33.340.1−6.8per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMrugalaSzlubowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime296 / 649 vs 207 / 34545.6%60%296 / 649 vs 207 / 345Avg sets wonper match1.92.2per matchAvg pointsper match37.539.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SzlubowskiMrugala 2.10/Szlubowski 1.65
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
57.6%
Szlubowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Szlubowski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
LSep 1 · 18:55B. Mrugala—11791132D. Szlubowski—711119113
LAug 20 · 15:50B. Mrugala—117681D. Szlubowski—81111113
LJul 28 · 15:50B. Mrugala—911951D. Szlubowski—11911113
LMay 22 · 19:30B. Mrugala—31131192D. Szlubowski—113117113
LMay 13 · 17:05B. Mrugala—61090D. Szlubowski—1112113
LFeb 17 · 18:05B. Mrugala—311471D. Szlubowski—11611113
WJan 16 · 21:40B. Mrugala—11611113D. Szlubowski—611971
B. Mrugala10
WSep 8 · 17:45K. Golaszewski1.9712981142B. Mrugala1.691011118113WSep 8 · 16:55B. Mrugala1.80119211133J. Rolak1.86811119112WSep 8 · 24:10M. Trela1.66681111102B. Mrugala2.05111179123WSep 7 · 23:45B. Mrugala1.741112113K. Golaszewski1.9191060LSep 7 · 22:55B. Mrugala2.234111181J. Przewlocki1.5311137113WSep 7 · 21:05B. Mrugala2.0017612113W. Iwasyszyn1.7215111081WSep 7 · 19:40B. Mrugala1.831111113P. Strus1.838870WSep 7 · 18:30B. Mrugala2.2511157113J. Przewlocki1.544131171WSep 7 · 17:20B. Mrugala1.95611811113J. Nosiadek1.7411911762LSep 7 · 16:15W. Iwasyszyn1.7181111123B. Mrugala2.001138101
D. Szlubowski10
LSep 8 · 16:35D. Szlubowski1.80911791K. Klocek1.8611411113WSep 4 · 20:05D. Szlubowski1.871111129113S. Wnek1.83713101162LSep 4 · 18:30D. Poloszczanski2.05111666113D. Szlubowski1.66814111182LSep 4 · 17:45D. Kotwica2.20121011113D. Szlubowski1.571012651LSep 4 · 16:55D. Szlubowski1.5491111482K. Golaszewski2.35119611113LSep 4 · 15:50D. Szlubowski1.27841171P. Strus3.3011116113WSep 1 · 19:40B. Wisniewski3.25951121D. Szlubowski1.2811117113WSep 1 · 18:55B. Mrugala2.2011791132D. Szlubowski1.57711119113WSep 1 · 18:10D. Szlubowski1.4771111113J. Rolak2.50118781WSep 1 · 16:35D. Szlubowski1.65811119113K. Marchlewski2.0611581142
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