TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13084504
Played Sep 5Finished
Aleksander Lilien
Home
1.62
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
711117711811––
Bartosz Sulkowski
Away
2.15
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:51 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeAleksander Lilien to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
73 points played in total.
Set by set
711117711811––
H2H Aleksander Lilien 23–15 Bartosz Sulkowski Bartosz Sulkowski has won 15 of their 38 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:51What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.62 (57%)
Lilien
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
23-15 in 38
Lilien
Wrong
gap of 8 in 38, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Lilien 1514 vs Sulkowski 1438
Lilien
Wrong
both rated, 76 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Lilien 60% vs Sulkowski 80%
Sulkowski
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Lilien 70% vs Sulkowski 70%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Lilien +3 · Sulkowski +2
Lilien
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Lilien) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sulkowski form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (47%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLilien 1.62 / Sulkowski 2.15
Signal prob.58% / 42%
Edge (Lilien)+1.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13084504
Lilien1.62
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite60% won 249 of 417
Up 2–0, closes it96% 128 of 133
Up 1–0, closes it78% 189 of 244
Sulkowski2.15
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog32% won 161 of 504
Down 0–1, comes back17% 50 of 290
Down 0–2, comes back2% 3 of 137
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeLilien7wins
AwaySulkowski3wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLilien leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLilien100%5 of 5
AwaySulkowski60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Lilien5Sulkowski5n = 10split evenly
S2Lilien6Sulkowski4n = 10Lilien took 6 of 10
S3Lilien6Sulkowski4n = 10Lilien took 6 of 10
S4Lilien4Sulkowski4n = 8split evenly
S5Lilien3Sulkowski1n = 4Lilien took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricLilienSulkowskiL − SBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match40.037.0+3.0per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLilienSulkowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime829 / 1532 vs 534 / 121054.1%44.1%829 / 1532 vs 534 / 1210Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.637.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LilienLilien 1.62/Sulkowski 2.15
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
58.2%
Lilien · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Sulkowski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 5 · 20:30A. Lilien—14511113B. Sulkowski—1211491
WAug 26 · 11:25A. Lilien—1111113B. Sulkowski—4850
WAug 26 · 05:15A. Lilien—111112113B. Sulkowski—551481
LAug 14 · 12:15A. Lilien—991191B. Sulkowski—11117113
WAug 13 · 14:20A. Lilien—11114113B. Sulkowski—481171
LAug 12 · 11:25A. Lilien—711100B. Sulkowski—1113123
LAug 7 · 11:50A. Lilien—51171172B. Sulkowski—115115113
WJul 26 · 18:10A. Lilien—411115113B. Sulkowski—11991152
WJul 17 · 11:50A. Lilien—118114113B. Sulkowski—71161192
WJul 14 · 06:30A. Lilien—911118113B. Sulkowski—11991172
A. Lilien10
LSep 7 · 24:10A. Myszewski2.401211113A. Lilien1.5110490LSep 6 · 23:45A. Lilien1.66118991A. Linek2.1071111113LSep 6 · 22:55A. Lilien1.66511961B. Sulkowski2.0511711113WSep 6 · 21:05A. Lilien1.471111113M. Trela2.453880WSep 6 · 20:05A. Wos1.63115111082A. Lilien2.10911712113LSep 6 · 19:20A. Myszewski2.301111113A. Lilien1.528560LSep 6 · 17:20J. Michalczyk1.90111275113A. Lilien1.80710111182WSep 6 · 16:35B. Sulkowski2.258115101A. Lilien1.5511811123LSep 6 · 15:00M. Trela3.051111113A. Lilien1.319890LSep 6 · 24:10A. Lilien1.83713291K. Kufel1.83111111113
B. Sulkowski10
WSep 7 · 24:35A. Linek1.97136681B. Sulkowski1.71111111113WSep 6 · 22:55A. Lilien1.66511961B. Sulkowski2.0511711113LSep 6 · 22:15M. Trela1.941111117113B. Sulkowski1.7461341192LSep 6 · 21:30A. Myszewski2.3711711113B. Sulkowski1.51511451WSep 6 · 19:40J. Michalczyk2.21811981B. Sulkowski1.5711211113WSep 6 · 18:55M. Trela2.239711121B. Sulkowski1.5611112143WSep 6 · 18:10B. Sulkowski1.60111178113A. Myszewski2.1036111142LSep 6 · 16:35B. Sulkowski2.258115101A. Lilien1.5511811123LSep 6 · 15:50A. Wos1.421511113113B. Sulkowski2.6017761162WSep 5 · 22:35D. Poloszczanski2.9541013111B. Sulkowski1.35111211133
Upcoming Matches
A. Lilien
Nothing scheduled
B. Sulkowski
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