TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13091622
Played Sep 7Finished
Mateusz Rutkowski
Home
1.40
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
119119118––––
Kamil Kostyk
Away
2.75
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:38 and never touched — 54.5% is still 54.5%
Graded at full timeMateusz Rutkowski to win
54.5%
54.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMateusz Rutkowski above · Kamil Kostyk below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-8
Point 59 set 3, 11-8 — our read held Mateusz Rutkowski at 54.5%
59 points played in total.
H2H Mateusz Rutkowski 1–1 Kamil Kostyk Dead even across their 2 meetings.
Last 2 · 1–1Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:38What took a side2 for · 0 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Rutkowski
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-1 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Rutkowski 1661 vs Kostyk 1473
Rutkowski
Correct
both rated, 188 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Rutkowski 40% vs Kostyk 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Rutkowski 50% vs Kostyk 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Rutkowski +1 · Kostyk -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 4 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 69% — Clear lean (leans Rutkowski) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Rutkowski form (40%) is below what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRutkowski 1.40 / Kostyk 2.75
Signal prob.69% / 31%
Edge (Rutkowski)+2.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13091622
Rutkowski1.40
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite69% won 379 of 546
Up 2–0, closes it96% 184 of 191
Up 1–0, closes it89% 302 of 339
Kostyk2.75
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog37% won 45 of 122
Down 0–1, comes back22% 16 of 72
Down 0–2, comes back8% 3 of 39
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeRutkowski1wins
AwayKostyk1wins
Level at 1–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home1
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away1
These 2 meetings
MetricRutkowskiKostykR − KBasisWins110in 2 meetingsFirst set110of 2Avg pointsper match33.031.0+2.0per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRutkowskiKostykBasisWin rate · lifetime768 / 1372 vs 217 / 42256%51.4%768 / 1372 vs 217 / 422Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.938.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
RutkowskiRutkowski 1.40/Kostyk 2.75
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
69.1%
Rutkowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Rutkowski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
LJun 21 · 15:00M. Rutkowski—41280K. Kostyk—1114113
WMay 9 · 17:30M. Rutkowski—11911113K. Kostyk—511911
M. Rutkowski10
WSep 7 · 18:05K. Glazowski1.839111081M. Rutkowski1.8311912113LSep 7 · 16:55K. Kapik1.911112113M. Rutkowski1.8081070LSep 7 · 15:25K. Strowski1.6111111113M. Rutkowski2.20911341LSep 5 · 01:10M. Rutkowski1.57812111192M. Kolek2.251110139113WSep 5 · 24:20M. Rutkowski1.801413113P. Jendrzejewski1.91121150WSep 4 · 22:50M. Rutkowski1.731111113J. Kuzmicz2.009680WSep 4 · 22:30M. Rutkowski1.731111113T. Filbrandt2.007380LSep 4 · 21:45P. Jendrzejewski1.801111113M. Rutkowski1.919550WSep 4 · 20:30M. Rutkowski1.57101211113M. Kolek2.251210961LSep 4 · 19:15K. Kolodziej1.361311113M. Rutkowski3.0011610
K. Kostyk10
LSep 7 · 20:05K. Kapik1.57811119123K. Kostyk2.25117911102LSep 7 · 17:20K. Strowski1.221111811113K. Kostyk4.0049111332LSep 7 · 16:30K. Glazowski1.2811911113K. Kostyk3.50611541WSep 7 · 15:00K. Staszczyk1.6154110K. Kostyk2.201111133WAug 16 · 23:20B. Mleczko1.85112651K. Kostyk1.8591111113LAug 16 · 22:35D. Solilo2.85131198113K. Kostyk1.36119111192LAug 16 · 22:15K. Kostyk1.678811121A. Lilien2.0311118143WAug 16 · 21:05D. Kotwica2.4011155732K. Kostyk1.518131111113LAug 16 · 20:30K. Kostyk1.6614117992B. Mleczko2.051271111113WAug 16 · 18:55K. Kostyk1.301011158153J. Michalczyk3.251221311132
Upcoming Matches
M. Rutkowski3 of 10 neutral
Sep 7 · 21:25M. Rutkowski1.73K. Kapik2.00—Sep 7 · 21:50M. Rutkowski1.17B. Sulkowski4.50—Sep 7 · 23:20M. Rutkowski2.00K. Staszczyk1.73—Sep 8 · 24:10M. Rutkowski1.40K. Kostyk2.75—Sep 8 · 15:00M. Rutkowski—K. Kostyk——Sep 8 · 16:30M. Rutkowski—K. Glazowski——Sep 8 · 17:20M. Rutkowski—A. Daniel——Sep 8 · 19:15M. Rutkowski—K. Kapik——Sep 8 · 20:05M. Rutkowski—L. Pietraszko——Sep 8 · 21:00M. Rutkowski—K. Kostyk——
K. Kostyk2 of 10 neutral
Sep 7 · 21:00K. Kostyk2.20K. Staszczyk1.61—Sep 7 · 22:55K. Kostyk2.25K. Kapik1.57—Sep 7 · 23:45K. Kostyk1.44B. Sulkowski2.63—Sep 8 · 24:10K. Kostyk2.75M. Rutkowski1.40—Sep 8 · 15:00K. Kostyk—M. Rutkowski——Sep 8 · 16:05K. Kostyk—A. Daniel——Sep 8 · 17:40K. Kostyk—L. Pietraszko——Sep 8 · 18:50K. Kostyk—K. Glazowski——Sep 8 · 20:30K. Kostyk—K. Kapik——Sep 8 · 21:00K. Kostyk—M. Rutkowski——
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