TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #12444752
Played Aug 16Finished
Dawid Kotwica
Home
2.40
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1181513511711311
Kamil Kostyk
Away
1.51
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:22 and never touched — 71.0% is still 71.0%
Graded at full timeKamil Kostyk to win
71.0%
71.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
95 points played in total.
Set by set
1181513511711311
H2H Dawid Kotwica 1–5 Kamil Kostyk Dawid Kotwica has won 1 of their 6 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 18:22What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.51 (61%)
Kostyk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-5 in 6
Kostyk
Correct
gap of 4 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kotwica 1253 vs Kostyk 1471
Kostyk
Correct
both rated, 218 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kotwica 20% vs Kostyk 80%
Kostyk
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kotwica 30% vs Kostyk 50%
Kostyk
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kotwica -2 · Kostyk -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 72% — Strong (leans Kostyk) · live re-read · sealed at 71% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kostyk form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (66%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKotwica 2.40 / Kostyk 1.51
Signal prob.28% / 72%
Edge (Kostyk)+11.0pp
TT Elite Series · #12444752
Kotwica2.40
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog36% won 169 of 473
Down 0–1, comes back16% 45 of 276
Down 0–2, comes back3% 5 of 175
Kostyk1.51
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite63% won 51 of 81
Up 2–0, closes it96% 24 of 25
Up 1–0, closes it73% 38 of 52
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeKotwica1wins
AwayKostyk5wins
Kostyk leads 5–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKotwican = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayKostyk100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kotwica1Kostyk5n = 6Kostyk took 5 of 6
S2Kotwica1Kostyk5n = 6Kostyk took 5 of 6
S3Kotwica1Kostyk5n = 6Kostyk took 5 of 6
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home117%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away117%
0–3Straight, away467%
These 6 meetings
MetricKotwicaKostykKotwica − KostykBasisWins15−4in 6 meetingsFirst set15−4of 6Avg pointsper match28.336.0−7.7per matchSweeps04−43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKotwicaKostykBasisWin rate · lifetime682 / 1666 vs 214 / 41540.9%51.6%682 / 1666 vs 214 / 415Avg sets wonper match1.72.0per matchAvg pointsper match35.338.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KostykKotwica 2.40/Kostyk 1.51
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
72.4%
Kostyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Kostyk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
LAug 16 · 15:00D. Kotwica—8111051K. Kostyk—11512113
LApr 7 · 24:35D. Kotwica—5870K. Kostyk—1111113
LApr 6 · 22:10D. Kotwica—98100K. Kostyk—1111123
WOct 26 · 07:20D. Kotwica—11811123K. Kostyk—9117101
LSep 6 · 10:35D. Kotwica—56120K. Kostyk—1111143
LSep 4 · 16:55D. Kotwica—13560K. Kostyk—1511113
D. Kotwica10
WSep 4 · 23:20K. Golaszewski2.15711781D. Kotwica1.6011811113LSep 4 · 22:35K. Sulkowski1.85811611133D. Kotwica1.85113119112WSep 4 · 22:15D. Kotwica1.5711118113D. Poloszczanski2.20771191LSep 4 · 21:05S. Wnek2.1511711113D. Kotwica1.62511731LSep 4 · 20:30D. Kotwica1.904880K. Golaszewski1.801111113LSep 4 · 18:55D. Kotwica1.47119741P. Strus2.5081111113WSep 4 · 17:45D. Kotwica2.20121011113D. Szlubowski1.571012651LSep 4 · 16:15D. Kotwica1.7591191192D. Poloszczanski1.95118118113WSep 4 · 15:00D. Kotwica1.901311113S. Wnek1.7511650LAug 31 · 24:10D. Kotwica1.9587111672A. Mugowski1.751111914113
K. Kostyk10
LSep 7 · 16:30K. Glazowski1.2811911113K. Kostyk3.50611541WSep 7 · 15:00K. Staszczyk1.6154110K. Kostyk2.201111133WAug 16 · 23:20B. Mleczko1.85112651K. Kostyk1.8591111113LAug 16 · 22:35D. Solilo2.85131198113K. Kostyk1.36119111192LAug 16 · 22:15K. Kostyk1.678811121A. Lilien2.0311118143LAug 16 · 20:30K. Kostyk1.6614117992B. Mleczko2.051271111113WAug 16 · 18:55K. Kostyk1.301011158153J. Michalczyk3.251221311132WAug 16 · 17:45K. Kostyk1.5711117113A. Lilien2.20681191WAug 16 · 16:15K. Kostyk2.001111113D. Solilo1.716780WAug 16 · 15:00K. Kostyk1.2511512113D. Kotwica3.508111051
Upcoming Matches
D. Kotwica
Nothing scheduled
K. Kostyk2 of 10 neutral
Sep 7 · 17:20K. Kostyk4.50K. Strowski1.17—Sep 7 · 19:15K. Kostyk2.75M. Rutkowski1.40—Sep 7 · 20:05K. Kostyk2.25K. Kapik1.57—Sep 7 · 21:00K. Kostyk2.20K. Staszczyk1.61—Sep 7 · 22:55K. Kostyk2.25K. Kapik1.57—Sep 7 · 23:45K. Kostyk1.44B. Sulkowski2.63—Sep 8 · 24:10K. Kostyk2.75M. Rutkowski1.40—Sep 8 · 15:00K. Kostyk—M. Rutkowski——Sep 8 · 16:05K. Kostyk—A. Daniel——Sep 8 · 17:40K. Kostyk—L. Pietraszko——
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.