TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #12443430
Played Aug 16Finished
Kamil Kostyk
Home
1.25
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1185111210115––
Dawid Kotwica
Away
3.50
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:21 and never touched — 57.9% is still 57.9%
Graded at full timeKamil Kostyk to win
57.9%
57.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
73 points played in total.
Set by set
1185111210115––
H2H Kamil Kostyk 4–1 Dawid Kotwica Dawid Kotwica has won 1 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 12:21What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.25 (74%)
Kostyk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-1 in 5
Kostyk
Correct
gap of 3 in 5, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kostyk 1441 vs Kotwica 1267
Kostyk
Correct
both rated, 174 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kostyk 20% vs Kotwica 40%
Kotwica
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kostyk 20% vs Kotwica 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kostyk -2 · Kotwica -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 84% — Strong (leans Kostyk) · live re-read · sealed at 58% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kotwica form (40%) outperforms what odds imply (29%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKostyk 1.25 / Kotwica 3.50
Signal prob.84% / 16%
Edge (Kostyk)+10.0pp
TT Elite Series · #12443430
Kostyk1.25
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite63% won 51 of 81
Up 2–0, closes it96% 24 of 25
Up 1–0, closes it73% 38 of 52
Kotwica3.50
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog36% won 169 of 473
Down 0–1, comes back16% 45 of 276
Down 0–2, comes back3% 5 of 175
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeKostyk4wins
AwayKotwica1wins
Kostyk leads 4–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKostyk100%4 of 4
AwayKotwican = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kostyk4Kotwica1n = 5Kostyk took 4 of 5
S2Kostyk5Kotwica0n = 5Kostyk took 5 of 5
S3Kostyk4Kotwica1n = 5Kostyk took 4 of 5
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home480%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away120%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 5 meetings
MetricKostykKotwicaKostyk − KotwicaBasisWins41+3in 5 meetingsFirst set41+3of 5Avg pointsper match35.427.2+8.2per matchSweeps40+43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKostykKotwicaBasisWin rate · lifetime210 / 410 vs 681 / 166151.2%41%210 / 410 vs 681 / 1661Avg sets wonper match2.01.7per matchAvg pointsper match38.035.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KostykKostyk 1.25/Kotwica 3.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
83.7%
Kostyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Kostyk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
WApr 7 · 24:35K. Kostyk—1111113D. Kotwica—5870
WApr 6 · 22:10K. Kostyk—1111123D. Kotwica—98100
LOct 26 · 07:20K. Kostyk—9117101D. Kotwica—11811123
WSep 6 · 10:35K. Kostyk—1111143D. Kotwica—56120
WSep 4 · 16:55K. Kostyk—1511113D. Kotwica—13560
K. Kostyk10
LSep 7 · 16:30K. Glazowski1.2811911113K. Kostyk3.50611541WSep 7 · 15:00K. Staszczyk1.6154110K. Kostyk2.201111133WAug 16 · 23:20B. Mleczko1.85112651K. Kostyk1.8591111113LAug 16 · 22:35D. Solilo2.85131198113K. Kostyk1.36119111192LAug 16 · 22:15K. Kostyk1.678811121A. Lilien2.0311118143WAug 16 · 21:05D. Kotwica2.4011155732K. Kostyk1.518131111113LAug 16 · 20:30K. Kostyk1.6614117992B. Mleczko2.051271111113WAug 16 · 18:55K. Kostyk1.301011158153J. Michalczyk3.251221311132WAug 16 · 17:45K. Kostyk1.5711117113A. Lilien2.20681191WAug 16 · 16:15K. Kostyk2.001111113D. Solilo1.716780
D. Kotwica10
WSep 4 · 23:20K. Golaszewski2.15711781D. Kotwica1.6011811113LSep 4 · 22:35K. Sulkowski1.85811611133D. Kotwica1.85113119112WSep 4 · 22:15D. Kotwica1.5711118113D. Poloszczanski2.20771191LSep 4 · 21:05S. Wnek2.1511711113D. Kotwica1.62511731LSep 4 · 20:30D. Kotwica1.904880K. Golaszewski1.801111113LSep 4 · 18:55D. Kotwica1.47119741P. Strus2.5081111113WSep 4 · 17:45D. Kotwica2.20121011113D. Szlubowski1.571012651LSep 4 · 16:15D. Kotwica1.7591191192D. Poloszczanski1.95118118113WSep 4 · 15:00D. Kotwica1.901311113S. Wnek1.7511650LAug 16 · 21:05D. Kotwica2.4011155732K. Kostyk1.518131111113
Upcoming Matches
K. Kostyk2 of 10 neutral
Sep 7 · 17:20K. Kostyk4.50K. Strowski1.17—Sep 7 · 19:15K. Kostyk2.75M. Rutkowski1.40—Sep 7 · 20:05K. Kostyk2.25K. Kapik1.57—Sep 7 · 21:00K. Kostyk2.20K. Staszczyk1.61—Sep 7 · 22:55K. Kostyk2.25K. Kapik1.57—Sep 7 · 23:45K. Kostyk1.44B. Sulkowski2.63—Sep 8 · 24:10K. Kostyk2.75M. Rutkowski1.40—Sep 8 · 15:00K. Kostyk—M. Rutkowski——Sep 8 · 16:05K. Kostyk—A. Daniel——Sep 8 · 17:40K. Kostyk—L. Pietraszko——
D. Kotwica
Nothing scheduled
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