TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13079664
Played Sep 4Finished
Karol Sulkowski
Home
1.85
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
8111136111191311
Dawid Kotwica
Away
1.85
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:17 and never touched — 63.0% is still 63.0%
Graded at full timeKarol Sulkowski to win
63.0%
63.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
94 points played in total.
Set by set
8111136111191311
H2H Karol Sulkowski 14–9 Dawid Kotwica Dawid Kotwica has won 9 of their 23 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 22:17What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.85 (50%)
Kotwica
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
14-9 in 23
Sulkowski
Correct
gap of 5 in 23, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sulkowski 1269 vs Kotwica 1290
Kotwica
Wrong
both rated, 21 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sulkowski 60% vs Kotwica 40%
Sulkowski
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sulkowski 50% vs Kotwica 30%
Sulkowski
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Sulkowski +2 · Kotwica +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Sulkowski) · live re-read · sealed at 63% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kotwica form (40%) is below what odds imply (54%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSulkowski 1.85 / Kotwica 1.85
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Sulkowski)+4.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13079664
Sulkowski1.85
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Kotwica1.85
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSulkowski6wins
AwayKotwica4wins
4 of 10 to a deciderSulkowski leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSulkowski71.4%5 of 7
AwayKotwica66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sulkowski7Kotwica3n = 10Sulkowski took 7 of 10
S2Sulkowski5Kotwica5n = 10split evenly
S3Sulkowski6Kotwica4n = 10Sulkowski took 6 of 10
S4Sulkowski6Kotwica4n = 10Sulkowski took 6 of 10
S5Sulkowski1Kotwica3n = 4Kotwica took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home550%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricSulkowskiKotwicaS − KBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match40.840.7+0.1per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSulkowskiKotwicaBasisWin rate · lifetime614 / 1243 vs 665 / 160249.4%41.5%614 / 1243 vs 665 / 1602Avg sets wonper match2.01.7per matchAvg pointsper match38.035.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SulkowskiSulkowski 1.85/Kotwica 1.85
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Sulkowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Sulkowski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 23 · 14:40K. Sulkowski—117126113D. Kotwica—811101192
LAug 23 · 03:50K. Sulkowski—111112572D. Kotwica—1391011113
WAug 19 · 03:50K. Sulkowski—11118113D. Kotwica—971161
WJun 9 · 01:35K. Sulkowski—111311113D. Kotwica—715751
LJun 8 · 23:05K. Sulkowski—11211462D. Kotwica—911711113
WJun 2 · 23:45K. Sulkowski—61111113D. Kotwica—114881
WJun 2 · 21:20K. Sulkowski—11611113D. Kotwica—911691
LMay 24 · 07:55K. Sulkowski—11871172D. Kotwica—811116113
LMay 14 · 01:00K. Sulkowski—611471D. Kotwica—11511113
WMay 13 · 22:35K. Sulkowski—111110123D. Kotwica—8712101
K. Sulkowski10
LSep 7 · 08:10S. Brud1.50611117113K. Sulkowski2.3511641142WSep 7 · 07:20M. Zwolinski2.009912101K. Sulkowski1.70111110123LSep 7 · 05:15B. Czerwinski1.541111113K. Sulkowski2.254950WSep 7 · 04:30B. Wisniewski2.3411791262K. Sulkowski1.519111110113LSep 7 · 03:00A. Szoltysek2.0512117113K. Sulkowski1.681021181WSep 6 · 14:40K. Golaszewski2.35571181K. Sulkowski1.5011118113WSep 6 · 13:30K. Sulkowski1.601111123B. Wisniewski2.2058100WSep 6 · 12:15M. Sinicki1.856880K. Sulkowski1.851111113WSep 6 · 11:00F. Jablonski1.9011761152K. Sulkowski1.75511119113WSep 6 · 09:25T. Piotrowski2.1561090K. Sulkowski1.601112113
D. Kotwica10
WSep 4 · 23:20K. Golaszewski2.15711781D. Kotwica1.6011811113WSep 4 · 22:15D. Kotwica1.5711118113D. Poloszczanski2.20771191LSep 4 · 21:05S. Wnek2.1511711113D. Kotwica1.62511731LSep 4 · 20:30D. Kotwica1.904880K. Golaszewski1.801111113LSep 4 · 18:55D. Kotwica1.47119741P. Strus2.5081111113WSep 4 · 17:45D. Kotwica2.20121011113D. Szlubowski1.571012651LSep 4 · 16:15D. Kotwica1.7591191192D. Poloszczanski1.95118118113WSep 4 · 15:00D. Kotwica1.901311113S. Wnek1.7511650LAug 31 · 24:10D. Kotwica1.9587111672A. Mugowski1.751111914113LAug 30 · 23:20D. Kotwica1.9012351182M. Trela1.801011119113
Upcoming Matches
K. Sulkowski1 of 1 neutral
D. Kotwica
Nothing scheduled
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