TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13049960
Played Aug 31Finished
Dawid Kotwica
Home
1.95
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 4
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
8117111191614711
Arkadiusz Mugowski
Away
1.75
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:24 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeArkadiusz Mugowski to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
105 points played in total.
Set by set
8117111191614711
H2H Dawid Kotwica 45–48 Arkadiusz Mugowski Dawid Kotwica has won 45 of their 93 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 22:24What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.75 (53%)
Mugowski
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
45-48 in 93
Mugowski
Correct
gap of 3 in 93, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kotwica 1327 vs Mugowski 1427
Mugowski
Correct
both rated, 100 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kotwica 20% vs Mugowski 60%
Mugowski
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kotwica 50% vs Mugowski 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kotwica -4 · Mugowski -1
Kotwica
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Mugowski)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kotwica form (20%) is below what odds imply (51%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKotwica 1.95 / Mugowski 1.75
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Mugowski)+1.3pp
TT Elite Series · #13049960
Kotwica1.95
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest100%takes the first set · 10 of 10
As underdog36% won 163 of 454
Down 0–1, comes back17% 44 of 267
Down 0–2, comes back2% 4 of 165
Mugowski1.75
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite57% won 129 of 225
Up 2–0, closes it96% 67 of 70
Up 1–0, closes it81% 102 of 126
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKotwica5wins
AwayMugowski5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKotwica71.4%5 of 7
AwayMugowski100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kotwica7Mugowski3n = 10Kotwica took 7 of 10
S2Kotwica6Mugowski4n = 10Kotwica took 6 of 10
S3Kotwica7Mugowski3n = 10Kotwica took 7 of 10
S4Kotwica2Mugowski4n = 6Mugowski took 4 of 6
S5Kotwica0Mugowski3n = 3Mugowski took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKotwicaMugowskiK − MBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match38.535.2+3.3per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKotwicaMugowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime670 / 1620 vs 965 / 209641.4%46%670 / 1620 vs 965 / 2096Avg sets wonper match1.71.9per matchAvg pointsper match35.337.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MugowskiKotwica 1.95/Mugowski 1.75
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Mugowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Mugowski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJul 30 · 16:35D. Kotwica—1111113A. Mugowski—6850
WJun 11 · 24:10D. Kotwica—11611133A. Mugowski—7115111
LJun 10 · 21:45D. Kotwica—101711692A. Mugowski—1215911113
WJun 10 · 16:55D. Kotwica—1111113A. Mugowski—5960
LJun 6 · 24:35D. Kotwica—10980A. Mugowski—1211113
LJun 5 · 22:10D. Kotwica—111195102A. Mugowski—641111123
LJun 5 · 19:20D. Kotwica—1041181A. Mugowski—12119113
WMay 27 · 24:10D. Kotwica—1112123A. Mugowski—110100
LMay 26 · 21:45D. Kotwica—11119582A. Mugowski—861111113
WMay 24 · 05:20D. Kotwica—13511113A. Mugowski—1111641
D. Kotwica10
WSep 4 · 23:20K. Golaszewski2.15711781D. Kotwica1.6011811113LSep 4 · 22:35K. Sulkowski1.85811611133D. Kotwica1.85113119112WSep 4 · 22:15D. Kotwica1.5711118113D. Poloszczanski2.20771191LSep 4 · 21:05S. Wnek2.1511711113D. Kotwica1.62511731LSep 4 · 20:30D. Kotwica1.904880K. Golaszewski1.801111113LSep 4 · 18:55D. Kotwica1.47119741P. Strus2.5081111113WSep 4 · 17:45D. Kotwica2.20121011113D. Szlubowski1.571012651LSep 4 · 16:15D. Kotwica1.7591191192D. Poloszczanski1.95118118113WSep 4 · 15:00D. Kotwica1.901311113S. Wnek1.7511650LAug 30 · 23:20D. Kotwica1.9012351182M. Trela1.801011119113
A. Mugowski10
WSep 5 · 13:50A. Mugowski1.921311143J. Wozniak1.76115120LSep 5 · 12:35A. Mugowski1.73111181242K. Klocek2.00991114113LSep 5 · 11:20A. Mugowski2.609980M. Minda1.421111113LSep 5 · 10:05J. Przewlocki1.951211123A. Mugowski1.74104100WSep 5 · 09:20A. Mugowski1.90921111113B. Kwodawski1.7511115842LSep 4 · 08:05A. Mugowski2.608890D. Solilo1.421111113LSep 4 · 06:25A. Lilien1.451111123A. Mugowski2.5075100LSep 4 · 05:35J. Zochniak1.5241312133A. Mugowski2.30111110111LSep 4 · 04:50A. Mugowski5.20581471G. Poliniewicz1.12111112113WSep 4 · 03:40A. Mugowski2.201111113M. Minda1.606770
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