TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13075505
Played Sep 4Finished
Arkadiusz Mugowski
Home
5.20
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
5118111412711––
Grzegorz Poliniewicz
Away
1.12
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 04:11 and never touched — 87.5% is still 87.5%
Graded at full timeGrzegorz Poliniewicz to win
87.5%
87.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
79 points played in total.
Set by set
5118111412711––
H2H Arkadiusz Mugowski 30–56 Grzegorz Poliniewicz Arkadiusz Mugowski has won 30 of their 86 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 04:11What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.12 (82%)
Poliniewicz
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
30-56 in 86
Poliniewicz
Correct
gap of 26 in 86, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mugowski 1422 vs Poliniewicz 1697
Poliniewicz
Correct
both rated, 275 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mugowski 40% vs Poliniewicz 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mugowski 40% vs Poliniewicz 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Mugowski +1 · Poliniewicz +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 86% — Strong (leans Poliniewicz) · live re-read · sealed at 88% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Poliniewicz form (40%) is below what odds imply (89%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMugowski 5.20 / Poliniewicz 1.12
Signal prob.14% / 86%
Edge (Poliniewicz)+4.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13075505
Mugowski5.20
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog42% won 215 of 517
Down 0–1, comes back26% 80 of 311
Down 0–2, comes back12% 21 of 171
Poliniewicz1.12
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite71% won 342 of 481
Up 2–0, closes it95% 153 of 161
Up 1–0, closes it85% 252 of 296
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMugowski4wins
AwayPoliniewicz6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderPoliniewicz leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMugowski80%4 of 5
AwayPoliniewicz100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mugowski5Poliniewicz5n = 10split evenly
S2Mugowski5Poliniewicz5n = 10split evenly
S3Mugowski3Poliniewicz7n = 10Poliniewicz took 7 of 10
S4Mugowski2Poliniewicz5n = 7Poliniewicz took 5 of 7
S5Mugowski2Poliniewicz1n = 3Mugowski took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricMugowskiPoliniewiczM − PBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match34.438.6−4.2per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMugowskiPoliniewiczBasisWin rate · lifetime949 / 2069 vs 1249 / 210645.9%59.3%949 / 2069 vs 1249 / 2106Avg sets wonper match1.82.2per matchAvg pointsper match37.038.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PoliniewiczMugowski 5.20/Poliniewicz 1.12
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
86.3%
Poliniewicz · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Poliniewicz won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WMay 6 · 04:00A. Mugowski—119115113G. Poliniewicz—81191172
LApr 21 · 11:25A. Mugowski—91180G. Poliniewicz—1113113
WApr 19 · 08:15A. Mugowski—11118113G. Poliniewicz—681181
LApr 16 · 06:30A. Mugowski—611791G. Poliniewicz—11911113
WApr 15 · 04:30A. Mugowski—1111113G. Poliniewicz—9780
LApr 14 · 04:10A. Mugowski—125671G. Poliniewicz—101111113
LApr 7 · 09:50A. Mugowski—911491G. Poliniewicz—11611113
LMar 20 · 11:35A. Mugowski—81111632G. Poliniewicz—116811113
LMar 15 · 13:45A. Mugowski—6470G. Poliniewicz—1111113
WMar 14 · 06:20A. Mugowski—124511113G. Poliniewicz—101111572
A. Mugowski10
WSep 5 · 13:50A. Mugowski1.921311143J. Wozniak1.76115120LSep 5 · 12:35A. Mugowski1.73111181242K. Klocek2.00991114113LSep 5 · 11:20A. Mugowski2.609980M. Minda1.421111113LSep 5 · 10:05J. Przewlocki1.951211123A. Mugowski1.74104100WSep 5 · 09:20A. Mugowski1.90921111113B. Kwodawski1.7511115842LSep 4 · 08:05A. Mugowski2.608890D. Solilo1.421111113LSep 4 · 06:25A. Lilien1.451111123A. Mugowski2.5075100LSep 4 · 05:35J. Zochniak1.5241312133A. Mugowski2.30111110111WSep 4 · 03:40A. Mugowski2.201111113M. Minda1.606770LSep 3 · 13:55A. Mugowski2.5094100R. Stapor1.471111123
G. Poliniewicz10
LSep 7 · 06:05M. Jadczyk1.141111510113G. Poliniewicz5.0079111282LSep 7 · 04:55P. David1.081111113G. Poliniewicz7.003690LSep 7 · 03:25J. Kosowski1.281211133G. Poliniewicz3.50107110LSep 6 · 08:05J. Braun1.36111111113G. Poliniewicz3.00139741WSep 6 · 07:20M. Nowalinski1.508138101G. Poliniewicz2.50111111123WSep 6 · 05:15M. Domin1.5711115192G. Poliniewicz2.25871111113LSep 6 · 04:30S. Kolasa1.331111113G. Poliniewicz3.255680LSep 6 · 03:00S. Sporek1.5711116133G. Poliniewicz2.259611111WSep 4 · 13:50J. Zochniak3.25114481G. Poliniewicz1.2761111113LSep 4 · 13:00A. Daniel1.3511711113G. Poliniewicz2.85611591
Upcoming Matches
A. Mugowski
Nothing scheduled
G. Poliniewicz
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