TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13071044
Played Sep 3Finished
Arkadiusz Mugowski
Home
2.50
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
9114111012––––
Rafal Stapor
Away
1.47
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:20 and never touched — 66.6% is still 66.6%
Graded at full timeRafal Stapor to win
66.6%
66.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
57 points played in total.
Set by set
9114111012––––
H2H Arkadiusz Mugowski 9–14 Rafal Stapor Arkadiusz Mugowski has won 9 of their 23 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 11:20What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.47 (63%)
Stapor
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
9-14 in 23
Stapor
Correct
gap of 5 in 23, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mugowski 1417 vs Stapor 1456
Stapor
Correct
both rated, 39 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mugowski 60% vs Stapor 20%
Mugowski
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mugowski 50% vs Stapor 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Mugowski -1 · Stapor -3
Stapor
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% — Clear lean (leans Stapor) · live re-read · sealed at 67% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Stapor form (20%) is below what odds imply (68%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMugowski 2.50 / Stapor 1.47
Signal prob.37% / 63%
Edge (Stapor)+0.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13071044
Mugowski2.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog41% won 211 of 510
Down 0–1, comes back26% 79 of 308
Down 0–2, comes back12% 21 of 170
Stapor1.47
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite63% won 421 of 668
Up 2–0, closes it96% 206 of 215
Up 1–0, closes it82% 323 of 394
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMugowski4wins
AwayStapor6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderStapor leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMugowski66.7%2 of 3
AwayStapor71.4%5 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mugowski3Stapor7n = 10Stapor took 7 of 10
S2Mugowski5Stapor5n = 10split evenly
S3Mugowski5Stapor5n = 10split evenly
S4Mugowski3Stapor6n = 9Stapor took 6 of 9
S5Mugowski2Stapor1n = 3Mugowski took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricMugowskiStaporM − SBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match36.640.1−3.5per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMugowskiStaporBasisWin rate · lifetime948 / 2070 vs 634 / 111945.8%56.7%948 / 2070 vs 634 / 1119Avg sets wonper match1.82.2per matchAvg pointsper match37.039.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StaporMugowski 2.50/Stapor 1.47
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
63.4%
Stapor · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Stapor won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 3 · 08:35A. Mugowski—11511113R. Stapor—411961
LAug 30 · 23:45A. Mugowski—721181R. Stapor—11113113
WAug 23 · 04:50A. Mugowski—5131110113R. Stapor—111191292
LAug 21 · 12:15A. Mugowski—712481R. Stapor—111011113
LJul 26 · 23:20A. Mugowski—411751R. Stapor—11511113
WJul 26 · 21:00A. Mugowski—111174113R. Stapor—79111192
WJun 11 · 18:30A. Mugowski—81111113R. Stapor—116921
LMay 3 · 24:40A. Mugowski—671181R. Stapor—11118113
LMay 2 · 22:15A. Mugowski—119911122R. Stapor—911118143
LMar 13 · 24:20A. Mugowski—8870R. Stapor—1111113
A. Mugowski10
WSep 5 · 13:50A. Mugowski1.921311143J. Wozniak1.76115120LSep 5 · 12:35A. Mugowski1.73111181242K. Klocek2.00991114113LSep 5 · 11:20A. Mugowski2.609980M. Minda1.421111113LSep 5 · 10:05J. Przewlocki1.951211123A. Mugowski1.74104100WSep 5 · 09:20A. Mugowski1.90921111113B. Kwodawski1.7511115842LSep 4 · 08:05A. Mugowski2.608890D. Solilo1.421111113LSep 4 · 06:25A. Lilien1.451111123A. Mugowski2.5075100LSep 4 · 05:35J. Zochniak1.5241312133A. Mugowski2.30111110111LSep 4 · 04:50A. Mugowski5.20581471G. Poliniewicz1.12111112113WSep 4 · 03:40A. Mugowski2.201111113M. Minda1.606770
R. Stapor10
LSep 3 · 13:05M. Kolek1.5012115123R. Stapor2.4010911101LSep 3 · 12:15R. Stapor2.156118101J. Witkowski1.6011711123LSep 3 · 10:35R. Stapor1.86118111192B. Czerwinski1.80611813113WSep 3 · 09:50A. Lilien1.65613481R. Stapor2.07111111113LSep 3 · 08:35A. Mugowski2.1511511113R. Stapor1.60411961WSep 3 · 07:20R. Stapor1.3891115113S. Wnek2.751151381WSep 3 · 06:05B. Sulkowski1.8094100R. Stapor1.861111123WSep 3 · 04:55K. Klocek2.006101161R. Stapor1.7011125113LSep 3 · 03:25M. Lukaszewski3.60111111113R. Stapor1.26713891WSep 2 · 14:20K. Rudomina1.411213781R. Stapor2.60141111113
Upcoming Matches
A. Mugowski
Nothing scheduled
R. Stapor
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