TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13070258
Played Sep 3Finished
Aleksander Lilien
Home
1.65
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
6111311411811––
Rafal Stapor
Away
2.07
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:19 and never touched — 58.3% is still 58.3%
Graded at full timeAleksander Lilien to win
58.3%
58.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
75 points played in total.
Set by set
6111311411811––
H2H Aleksander Lilien 8–3 Rafal Stapor Rafal Stapor has won 3 of their 11 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 08:19What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.65 (56%)
Lilien
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
8-3 in 11
Lilien
Wrong
gap of 5 in 11, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Lilien 1554 vs Stapor 1472
Lilien
Wrong
both rated, 82 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Lilien 80% vs Stapor 60%
Lilien
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Lilien 60% vs Stapor 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Lilien +3 · Stapor -1
Lilien
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Lilien)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Stapor form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLilien 1.65 / Stapor 2.07
Signal prob.58% / 42%
Edge (Lilien)+2.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13070258
Lilien1.65
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite59% won 243 of 409
Up 2–0, closes it96% 127 of 132
Up 1–0, closes it78% 188 of 242
Stapor2.07
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog38% won 105 of 280
Down 0–1, comes back17% 30 of 175
Down 0–2, comes back7% 7 of 99
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeLilien7wins
AwayStapor3wins
8 of 10 to a deciderLilien leads 7–3, and 8 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLilien85.7%6 of 7
AwayStapor66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Lilien7Stapor3n = 10Lilien took 7 of 10
S2Lilien5Stapor5n = 10split evenly
S3Lilien3Stapor7n = 10Stapor took 7 of 10
S4Lilien7Stapor3n = 10Lilien took 7 of 10
S5Lilien5Stapor3n = 8Lilien took 5 of 8
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home550%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricLilienStaporL − SBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match46.443.5+2.9per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLilienStaporBasisWin rate · lifetime837 / 1543 vs 633 / 111554.2%56.8%837 / 1543 vs 633 / 1115Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.538.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LilienLilien 1.65/Stapor 2.07
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
58%
Lilien · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Stapor won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 20 · 06:25A. Lilien—11115113R. Stapor—351171
WAug 13 · 09:00A. Lilien—111149113R. Stapor—57111142
LAug 13 · 07:45A. Lilien—71312742R. Stapor—11111011113
WAug 12 · 10:35A. Lilien—1181111113R. Stapor—91113782
WAug 7 · 07:15A. Lilien—118911143R. Stapor—711116122
WJul 23 · 08:05A. Lilien—114117133R. Stapor—311811112
LJul 23 · 05:35A. Lilien—109111172R. Stapor—121176113
LJul 19 · 20:05A. Lilien—125151192R. Stapor—1011177113
WJul 9 · 11:25A. Lilien—11113113R. Stapor—731161
WJun 16 · 09:50A. Lilien—5111111123R. Stapor—118136102
A. Lilien10
LSep 7 · 24:10A. Myszewski2.401211113A. Lilien1.5110490LSep 6 · 23:45A. Lilien1.66118991A. Linek2.1071111113LSep 6 · 22:55A. Lilien1.66511961B. Sulkowski2.0511711113WSep 6 · 21:05A. Lilien1.471111113M. Trela2.453880WSep 6 · 20:05A. Wos1.63115111082A. Lilien2.10911712113LSep 6 · 19:20A. Myszewski2.301111113A. Lilien1.528560LSep 6 · 17:20J. Michalczyk1.90111275113A. Lilien1.80710111182WSep 6 · 16:35B. Sulkowski2.258115101A. Lilien1.5511811123LSep 6 · 15:00M. Trela3.051111113A. Lilien1.319890LSep 6 · 24:10A. Lilien1.83713291K. Kufel1.83111111113
R. Stapor10
WSep 3 · 13:55A. Mugowski2.5094100R. Stapor1.471111123LSep 3 · 13:05M. Kolek1.5012115123R. Stapor2.4010911101LSep 3 · 12:15R. Stapor2.156118101J. Witkowski1.6011711123LSep 3 · 10:35R. Stapor1.86118111192B. Czerwinski1.80611813113LSep 3 · 08:35A. Mugowski2.1511511113R. Stapor1.60411961WSep 3 · 07:20R. Stapor1.3891115113S. Wnek2.751151381WSep 3 · 06:05B. Sulkowski1.8094100R. Stapor1.861111123WSep 3 · 04:55K. Klocek2.006101161R. Stapor1.7011125113LSep 3 · 03:25M. Lukaszewski3.60111111113R. Stapor1.26713891WSep 2 · 14:20K. Rudomina1.411213781R. Stapor2.60141111113
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