TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13071049
Played Sep 3Finished
Maciej Kolek
Home
1.50
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 5
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
12101195111210––
Rafal Stapor
Away
2.40
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:20 and never touched — 68.0% is still 68.0%
Graded at full timeMaciej Kolek to win
68.0%
68.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
80 points played in total.
Set by set
12101195111210––
H2H Maciej Kolek 5–4 Rafal Stapor Rafal Stapor has won 4 of their 9 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 11:20What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (62%)
Kolek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-4 in 9
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kolek 1623 vs Stapor 1463
Kolek
Correct
both rated, 160 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kolek 100% vs Stapor 40%
Kolek
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kolek 60% vs Stapor 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kolek +5 · Stapor -2
Kolek
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% — Clear lean (leans Kolek) · live re-read · sealed at 68% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kolek form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (67%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKolek 1.50 / Stapor 2.40
Signal prob.65% / 35%
Edge (Kolek)+3.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13071049
Kolek1.50
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 5
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite60% won 281 of 469
Up 2–0, closes it95% 106 of 112
Up 1–0, closes it81% 212 of 261
Stapor2.40
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog38% won 105 of 280
Down 0–1, comes back17% 30 of 175
Down 0–2, comes back7% 7 of 99
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeKolek5wins
AwayStapor4wins
4 of 9 to a deciderKolek leads 5–4, and 4 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKolek71.4%5 of 7
AwayStaporn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kolek7Stapor2n = 9Kolek took 7 of 9
S2Kolek4Stapor5n = 9Stapor took 5 of 9
S3Kolek8Stapor1n = 9Kolek took 8 of 9
S4Kolek2Stapor4n = 6Stapor took 4 of 6
S5Kolek1Stapor3n = 4Stapor took 3 of 4
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home333%
3–1Four sets, home111%
3–2Decider, home111%
2–3Decider, away333%
1–3Four sets, away111%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 9 meetings
MetricKolekStaporK − SBasisWins54+1in 9 meetingsFirst set72+5of 9Avg pointsper match42.437.9+4.5per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKolekStaporBasisWin rate · lifetime672 / 1356 vs 634 / 111849.6%56.7%672 / 1356 vs 634 / 1118Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.939.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KolekKolek 1.50/Stapor 2.40
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
64.7%
Kolek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Kolek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WAug 13 · 10:10M. Kolek—11119113R. Stapor—881161
WAug 13 · 06:40M. Kolek—1111153R. Stapor—55130
LAug 12 · 12:15M. Kolek—11712582R. Stapor—7111011113
LAug 4 · 04:50M. Kolek—891141R. Stapor—11116113
WJul 19 · 12:10M. Kolek—1111113R. Stapor—5760
LJul 12 · 10:55M. Kolek—1112111792R. Stapor—1314615113
WJun 18 · 10:35M. Kolek—1111153R. Stapor—68130
LJun 10 · 07:20M. Kolek—111011992R. Stapor—612411113
WJun 7 · 03:30M. Kolek—117118113R. Stapor—91191182
M. Kolek10
WSep 5 · 01:10M. Rutkowski1.57812111192M. Kolek2.251110139113LSep 5 · 24:45M. Kolek3.0088121162J. Kuzmicz1.361111108113WSep 4 · 23:55M. Kolek2.1011911113T. Filbrandt1.67411791LSep 4 · 22:05M. Kolek2.38791121P. Jendrzejewski1.5311116113LSep 4 · 21:20T. Filbrandt1.6711411113M. Kolek2.10711491LSep 4 · 20:30M. Rutkowski1.57101211113M. Kolek2.251210961WSep 4 · 18:30A. Daniel1.30123561M. Kolek3.40101111113LSep 4 · 17:40K. Kolodziej1.1451111113M. Kolek5.00113921WSep 4 · 16:05P. Jendrzejewski1.6189111172M. Kolek2.20111167113LSep 4 · 24:35M. Kolek2.63831191M. Rutkowski1.4411116113
R. Stapor10
WSep 3 · 13:55A. Mugowski2.5094100R. Stapor1.471111123LSep 3 · 12:15R. Stapor2.156118101J. Witkowski1.6011711123LSep 3 · 10:35R. Stapor1.86118111192B. Czerwinski1.80611813113WSep 3 · 09:50A. Lilien1.65613481R. Stapor2.07111111113LSep 3 · 08:35A. Mugowski2.1511511113R. Stapor1.60411961WSep 3 · 07:20R. Stapor1.3891115113S. Wnek2.751151381WSep 3 · 06:05B. Sulkowski1.8094100R. Stapor1.861111123WSep 3 · 04:55K. Klocek2.006101161R. Stapor1.7011125113LSep 3 · 03:25M. Lukaszewski3.60111111113R. Stapor1.26713891WSep 2 · 14:20K. Rudomina1.411213781R. Stapor2.60141111113
Upcoming Matches
M. Kolek
Nothing scheduled
R. Stapor
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