TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13065591
Played Sep 3Finished
Mikolaj Lukaszewski
Home
3.60
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1171113118119––
Rafal Stapor
Away
1.26
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:19 and never touched — 59.9% is still 59.9%
Graded at full timeRafal Stapor to win
59.9%
59.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
81 points played in total.
Set by set
1171113118119––
H2H Mikolaj Lukaszewski 14–22 Rafal Stapor Mikolaj Lukaszewski has won 14 of their 36 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 15:19What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.26 (74%)
Stapor
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
14-22 in 36
Stapor
Wrong
gap of 8 in 36, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Lukaszewski 1156 vs Stapor 1473
Stapor
Wrong
both rated, 317 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Lukaszewski 40% vs Stapor 60%
Stapor
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Lukaszewski 20% vs Stapor 60%
Stapor
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Lukaszewski -1 · Stapor +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 77% — Strong (leans Stapor) · live re-read · sealed at 60% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Stapor form (60%) is below what odds imply (79%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLukaszewski 3.60 / Stapor 1.26
Signal prob.23% / 77%
Edge (Stapor)+3.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13065591
Lukaszewski3.60
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog41% won 276 of 677
Down 0–1, comes back14% 54 of 379
Down 0–2, comes back3% 5 of 201
Stapor1.26
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite63% won 420 of 665
Up 2–0, closes it96% 207 of 216
Up 1–0, closes it82% 323 of 394
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeLukaszewski3wins
AwayStapor7wins
4 of 10 to a deciderStapor leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLukaszewski50%2 of 4
AwayStapor83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Lukaszewski4Stapor6n = 10Stapor took 6 of 10
S2Lukaszewski2Stapor8n = 10Stapor took 8 of 10
S3Lukaszewski2Stapor8n = 10Stapor took 8 of 10
S4Lukaszewski2Stapor4n = 6Stapor took 4 of 6
S5Lukaszewski3Stapor1n = 4Lukaszewski took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away440%
These 10 meetings
MetricLukaszewskiStaporL − SBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match35.742.5−6.8per matchSweeps04−43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLukaszewskiStaporBasisWin rate · lifetime923 / 2047 vs 630 / 111045.1%56.8%923 / 2047 vs 630 / 1110Avg sets wonper match1.82.2per matchAvg pointsper match36.239.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StaporLukaszewski 3.60/Stapor 1.26
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
77.3%
Stapor · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Lukaszewski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJun 11 · 10:10M. Lukaszewski—74110R. Stapor—1111133
WJun 10 · 04:30M. Lukaszewski—117911113R. Stapor—91111842
LMay 27 · 07:05M. Lukaszewski—117871R. Stapor—91111113
LMay 27 · 04:35M. Lukaszewski—4660R. Stapor—1111113
LMay 21 · 12:35M. Lukaszewski—11380R. Stapor—1311113
LMay 19 · 10:55M. Lukaszewski—111198102R. Stapor—991111123
WMay 17 · 20:05M. Lukaszewski—1112913123R. Stapor—13101111102
LMay 13 · 10:30M. Lukaszewski—9101161R. Stapor—11129113
WMay 13 · 06:40M. Lukaszewski—145127113R. Stapor—1211101182
LMay 13 · 04:10M. Lukaszewski—410100R. Stapor—1112123
M. Lukaszewski10
LSep 4 · 13:55A. Myszewski1.28131111113M. Lukaszewski3.251113761LSep 4 · 13:05M. Misiak1.221111113M. Lukaszewski3.704840WSep 4 · 12:15M. Lukaszewski3.7581512113A. Lilien1.2211131081WSep 4 · 10:35M. Lukaszewski2.55811911113W. Gronowski1.4311911772LSep 4 · 09:50M. Minda1.23111111123M. Lukaszewski3.558134101WSep 4 · 08:35A. Myszewski1.411111111192M. Lukaszewski2.60213713113LSep 4 · 07:20M. Lukaszewski3.355770B. Sulkowski1.271111113LSep 4 · 06:05M. Misiak1.2511119113M. Lukaszewski3.45771121LSep 4 · 04:55W. Gronowski1.3611117113M. Lukaszewski2.80281171LSep 4 · 03:25K. Klocek1.651311113M. Lukaszewski2.0511810
R. Stapor10
WSep 3 · 13:55A. Mugowski2.5094100R. Stapor1.471111123LSep 3 · 13:05M. Kolek1.5012115123R. Stapor2.4010911101LSep 3 · 12:15R. Stapor2.156118101J. Witkowski1.6011711123LSep 3 · 10:35R. Stapor1.86118111192B. Czerwinski1.80611813113WSep 3 · 09:50A. Lilien1.65613481R. Stapor2.07111111113LSep 3 · 08:35A. Mugowski2.1511511113R. Stapor1.60411961WSep 3 · 07:20R. Stapor1.3891115113S. Wnek2.751151381WSep 3 · 06:05B. Sulkowski1.8094100R. Stapor1.861111123WSep 3 · 04:55K. Klocek2.006101161R. Stapor1.7011125113WSep 2 · 14:20K. Rudomina1.411213781R. Stapor2.60141111113
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R. Stapor
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