TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13075495
Played Sep 4Finished
Mateusz Misiak
Home
1.25
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
117117911112––
Mikolaj Lukaszewski
Away
3.45
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 04:08 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMikolaj Lukaszewski to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
69 points played in total.
Set by set
117117911112––
H2H Mateusz Misiak 30–6 Mikolaj Lukaszewski Mikolaj Lukaszewski has won 6 of their 36 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 04:08What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.25 (73%)
Misiak
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
30-6 in 36
Misiak
Correct
gap of 24 in 36, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Misiak 1348 vs Lukaszewski 1242
Misiak
Correct
both rated, 106 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Misiak 40% vs Lukaszewski 60%
Lukaszewski
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Misiak 30% vs Lukaszewski 60%
Lukaszewski
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Misiak -1 · Lukaszewski -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 78% — Strong (leans Misiak) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lukaszewski form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (29%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMisiak 1.25 / Lukaszewski 3.45
Signal prob.78% / 22%
Edge (Misiak)+4.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13075495
Misiak1.25
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite60% won 225 of 374
Up 2–0, closes it97% 138 of 143
Up 1–0, closes it81% 183 of 226
Lukaszewski3.45
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog41% won 276 of 676
Down 0–1, comes back15% 55 of 379
Down 0–2, comes back3% 5 of 199
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMisiak9wins
AwayLukaszewski1wins
1 of 10 to a deciderMisiak leads 9–1, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMisiak100%9 of 9
AwayLukaszewskin = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Misiak9Lukaszewski1n = 10Misiak took 9 of 10
S2Misiak7Lukaszewski3n = 10Misiak took 7 of 10
S3Misiak7Lukaszewski3n = 10Misiak took 7 of 10
S4Misiak4Lukaszewski1n = 5Misiak took 4 of 5
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home550%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricMisiakLukaszewskiM − LBasisWins91+8in 10 meetingsFirst set91+8of 10Avg pointsper match36.624.4+12.2per matchSweeps50+53–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMisiakLukaszewskiBasisWin rate · lifetime1067 / 2010 vs 925 / 203153.1%45.5%1067 / 2010 vs 925 / 2031Avg sets wonper match2.11.8per matchAvg pointsper match37.736.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MisiakMisiak 1.25/Lukaszewski 3.45
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
77.8%
Misiak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Misiak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 4 · 13:05M. Misiak—1111113M. Lukaszewski—4840
WSep 4 · 06:05M. Misiak—11119113M. Lukaszewski—771121
WAug 21 · 08:10M. Misiak—1111113M. Lukaszewski—4470
WJul 19 · 09:25M. Misiak—111111113M. Lukaszewski—513751
WJan 19 · 01:15M. Misiak—1111113M. Lukaszewski—2860
WJan 18 · 22:50M. Misiak—113811113M. Lukaszewski—81111162
WJan 8 · 18:45M. Misiak—1111113M. Lukaszewski—3650
WDec 29 · 02:30M. Misiak—11119123M. Lukaszewski—5511101
LDec 29 · 24:00M. Misiak—5111111M. Lukaszewski—11138113
WDec 8 · 01:40M. Misiak—1111113M. Lukaszewski—4380
M. Misiak10
LSep 4 · 14:40M. Misiak2.80119691A. Lilien1.3791111113WSep 4 · 13:05M. Misiak1.221111113M. Lukaszewski3.704840LSep 4 · 11:50M. Misiak2.6071160M. Minda1.411113113WSep 4 · 10:10M. Misiak1.511111123A. Myszewski2.4087100LSep 4 · 09:00M. Misiak1.745890W. Gronowski1.951111113WSep 4 · 07:40K. Klocek2.307121091M. Misiak1.55111012113LSep 4 · 06:55A. Myszewski2.4081211113M. Misiak1.501110431LSep 4 · 04:30M. Misiak2.4031181192B. Sulkowski1.50117116113WSep 4 · 03:50W. Gronowski1.95611641M. Misiak1.7611711113LAug 30 · 24:10R. Stapor1.87111111113M. Misiak1.83851391
M. Lukaszewski10
LSep 4 · 13:55A. Myszewski1.28131111113M. Lukaszewski3.251113761LSep 4 · 13:05M. Misiak1.221111113M. Lukaszewski3.704840WSep 4 · 12:15M. Lukaszewski3.7581512113A. Lilien1.2211131081WSep 4 · 10:35M. Lukaszewski2.55811911113W. Gronowski1.4311911772LSep 4 · 09:50M. Minda1.23111111123M. Lukaszewski3.558134101WSep 4 · 08:35A. Myszewski1.411111111192M. Lukaszewski2.60213713113LSep 4 · 07:20M. Lukaszewski3.355770B. Sulkowski1.271111113LSep 4 · 04:55W. Gronowski1.3611117113M. Lukaszewski2.80281171LSep 4 · 03:25K. Klocek1.651311113M. Lukaszewski2.0511810WSep 3 · 07:40M. Lukaszewski2.95115155113B. Sulkowski1.35711131152
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