TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13044207
Played Aug 30Finished
Rafal Stapor
Home
1.87
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1181151113119––
Mateusz Misiak
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:57 and never touched — 64.9% is still 64.9%
Graded at full timeRafal Stapor to win
64.9%
64.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
79 points played in total.
Set by set
1181151113119––
H2H Rafal Stapor 16–10 Mateusz Misiak Mateusz Misiak has won 10 of their 26 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 21:57What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (51%)
Misiak
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
16-10 in 26
Stapor
Correct
gap of 6 in 26, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Stapor 1410 vs Misiak 1377
Stapor
Correct
both rated, 33 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stapor 80% vs Misiak 20%
Stapor
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stapor 70% vs Misiak 30%
Stapor
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Stapor -1 · Misiak +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Stapor) · live re-read · sealed at 65% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Misiak form (20%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStapor 1.87 / Misiak 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Stapor)+4.5pp
TT Elite Series · #13044207
Stapor1.87
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog37% won 102 of 273
Down 0–1, comes back17% 28 of 170
Down 0–2, comes back6% 6 of 98
Misiak1.83
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite59% won 243 of 409
Up 2–0, closes it97% 148 of 153
Up 1–0, closes it81% 193 of 237
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeStapor7wins
AwayMisiak3wins
2 of 10 to a deciderStapor leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStapor100%5 of 5
AwayMisiak60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stapor5Misiak5n = 10split evenly
S2Stapor7Misiak3n = 10Stapor took 7 of 10
S3Stapor8Misiak2n = 10Stapor took 8 of 10
S4Stapor5Misiak1n = 6Stapor took 5 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricStaporMisiakS − MBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match38.534.6+3.9per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStaporMisiakBasisWin rate · lifetime620 / 1092 vs 1083 / 204456.8%53%620 / 1092 vs 1083 / 2044Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.037.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StaporStapor 1.87/Misiak 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Stapor · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Stapor won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 29 · 16:15R. Stapor—41111113M. Misiak—117871
LAug 28 · 09:00R. Stapor—91111962M. Misiak—119811113
WAug 22 · 20:05R. Stapor—1111113M. Misiak—8670
LAug 21 · 13:30R. Stapor—8580M. Misiak—1111113
WAug 7 · 03:20R. Stapor—11911133M. Misiak—9118111
WJul 2 · 12:15R. Stapor—1111113M. Misiak—5490
LJul 1 · 05:40R. Stapor—9161011102M. Misiak—1114127123
WJul 1 · 03:25R. Stapor—11911113M. Misiak—911891
WJun 21 · 10:55R. Stapor—71111113M. Misiak—116991
WJun 21 · 08:05R. Stapor—1111113M. Misiak—9780
R. Stapor10
WSep 3 · 13:55A. Mugowski2.5094100R. Stapor1.471111123LSep 3 · 13:05M. Kolek1.5012115123R. Stapor2.4010911101LSep 3 · 12:15R. Stapor2.156118101J. Witkowski1.6011711123LSep 3 · 10:35R. Stapor1.86118111192B. Czerwinski1.80611813113WSep 3 · 09:50A. Lilien1.65613481R. Stapor2.07111111113LSep 3 · 08:35A. Mugowski2.1511511113R. Stapor1.60411961WSep 3 · 07:20R. Stapor1.3891115113S. Wnek2.751151381WSep 3 · 06:05B. Sulkowski1.8094100R. Stapor1.861111123WSep 3 · 04:55K. Klocek2.006101161R. Stapor1.7011125113LSep 3 · 03:25M. Lukaszewski3.60111111113R. Stapor1.26713891
M. Misiak10
LSep 4 · 14:40M. Misiak2.80119691A. Lilien1.3791111113WSep 4 · 13:05M. Misiak1.221111113M. Lukaszewski3.704840LSep 4 · 11:50M. Misiak2.6071160M. Minda1.411113113WSep 4 · 10:10M. Misiak1.511111123A. Myszewski2.4087100LSep 4 · 09:00M. Misiak1.745890W. Gronowski1.951111113WSep 4 · 07:40K. Klocek2.307121091M. Misiak1.55111012113LSep 4 · 06:55A. Myszewski2.4081211113M. Misiak1.501110431WSep 4 · 06:05M. Misiak1.2511119113M. Lukaszewski3.45771121LSep 4 · 04:30M. Misiak2.4031181192B. Sulkowski1.50117116113WSep 4 · 03:50W. Gronowski1.95611641M. Misiak1.7611711113
Upcoming Matches
R. Stapor
M. Misiak
Nothing scheduled
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.