TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13076925
Played Sep 4Finished
Mateusz Misiak
Home
1.22
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
114118114––––
Mikolaj Lukaszewski
Away
3.70
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:38 and never touched — 69.7% is still 69.7%
Graded at full timeMateusz Misiak to win
69.7%
69.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
49 points played in total.
Set by set
114118114––––
H2H Mateusz Misiak 29–6 Mikolaj Lukaszewski Mikolaj Lukaszewski has won 6 of their 35 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 10:38What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.22 (75%)
Misiak
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
29-6 in 35
Misiak
Correct
gap of 23 in 35, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Misiak 1344 vs Lukaszewski 1267
Misiak
Correct
both rated, 77 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Misiak 40% vs Lukaszewski 60%
Lukaszewski
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Misiak 50% vs Lukaszewski 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Misiak -1 · Lukaszewski +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 80% — Strong (leans Misiak) · live re-read · sealed at 70% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lukaszewski form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (27%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMisiak 1.22 / Lukaszewski 3.70
Signal prob.80% / 20%
Edge (Misiak)+4.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13076925
Misiak1.22
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite60% won 226 of 380
Up 2–0, closes it97% 136 of 141
Up 1–0, closes it80% 180 of 224
Lukaszewski3.70
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog41% won 278 of 673
Down 0–1, comes back14% 53 of 372
Down 0–2, comes back3% 5 of 195
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMisiak9wins
AwayLukaszewski1wins
1 of 10 to a deciderMisiak leads 9–1, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMisiak100%9 of 9
AwayLukaszewskin = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Misiak9Lukaszewski1n = 10Misiak took 9 of 10
S2Misiak6Lukaszewski4n = 10Misiak took 6 of 10
S3Misiak7Lukaszewski3n = 10Misiak took 7 of 10
S4Misiak5Lukaszewski1n = 6Misiak took 5 of 6
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricMisiakLukaszewskiM − LBasisWins91+8in 10 meetingsFirst set91+8of 10Avg pointsper match37.925.3+12.6per matchSweeps40+43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMisiakLukaszewskiBasisWin rate · lifetime1069 / 2014 vs 927 / 204653.1%45.3%1069 / 2014 vs 927 / 2046Avg sets wonper match2.11.8per matchAvg pointsper match37.736.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MisiakMisiak 1.22/Lukaszewski 3.70
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
79.6%
Misiak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Misiak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 4 · 06:05M. Misiak—11119113M. Lukaszewski—771121
WAug 21 · 08:10M. Misiak—1111113M. Lukaszewski—4470
WJul 19 · 09:25M. Misiak—111111113M. Lukaszewski—513751
WJan 19 · 01:15M. Misiak—1111113M. Lukaszewski—2860
WJan 18 · 22:50M. Misiak—113811113M. Lukaszewski—81111162
WJan 8 · 18:45M. Misiak—1111113M. Lukaszewski—3650
WDec 29 · 02:30M. Misiak—11119123M. Lukaszewski—5511101
LDec 29 · 24:00M. Misiak—5111111M. Lukaszewski—11138113
WDec 8 · 01:40M. Misiak—1111113M. Lukaszewski—4380
WDec 7 · 23:15M. Misiak—111311113M. Lukaszewski—315431
M. Misiak10
LSep 4 · 14:40M. Misiak2.80119691A. Lilien1.3791111113LSep 4 · 11:50M. Misiak2.6071160M. Minda1.411113113WSep 4 · 10:10M. Misiak1.511111123A. Myszewski2.4087100LSep 4 · 09:00M. Misiak1.745890W. Gronowski1.951111113WSep 4 · 07:40K. Klocek2.307121091M. Misiak1.55111012113LSep 4 · 06:55A. Myszewski2.4081211113M. Misiak1.501110431WSep 4 · 06:05M. Misiak1.2511119113M. Lukaszewski3.45771121LSep 4 · 04:30M. Misiak2.4031181192B. Sulkowski1.50117116113WSep 4 · 03:50W. Gronowski1.95611641M. Misiak1.7611711113LAug 30 · 24:10R. Stapor1.87111111113M. Misiak1.83851391
M. Lukaszewski10
LSep 4 · 13:55A. Myszewski1.28131111113M. Lukaszewski3.251113761WSep 4 · 12:15M. Lukaszewski3.7581512113A. Lilien1.2211131081WSep 4 · 10:35M. Lukaszewski2.55811911113W. Gronowski1.4311911772LSep 4 · 09:50M. Minda1.23111111123M. Lukaszewski3.558134101WSep 4 · 08:35A. Myszewski1.411111111192M. Lukaszewski2.60213713113LSep 4 · 07:20M. Lukaszewski3.355770B. Sulkowski1.271111113LSep 4 · 06:05M. Misiak1.2511119113M. Lukaszewski3.45771121LSep 4 · 04:55W. Gronowski1.3611117113M. Lukaszewski2.80281171LSep 4 · 03:25K. Klocek1.651311113M. Lukaszewski2.0511810WSep 3 · 07:40M. Lukaszewski2.95115155113B. Sulkowski1.35711131152
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