TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13076472
Played Sep 4Finished
Michal Minda
Home
1.23
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
11811131141210––
Mikolaj Lukaszewski
Away
3.55
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:49 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMichal Minda to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
80 points played in total.
Set by set
11811131141210––
H2H Michal Minda 12–9 Mikolaj Lukaszewski Mikolaj Lukaszewski has won 9 of their 21 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 08:49What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.23 (74%)
Minda
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
12-9 in 21
Minda
Correct
gap of 3 in 21, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Minda 1461 vs Lukaszewski 1237
Minda
Correct
both rated, 223 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Minda 20% vs Lukaszewski 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Minda 40% vs Lukaszewski 60%
Lukaszewski
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Minda -1 · Lukaszewski +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 78% — Strong (leans Minda) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Minda form (20%) is below what odds imply (81%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMinda 1.23 / Lukaszewski 3.55
Signal prob.78% / 23%
Edge (Minda)+3.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13076472
Minda1.23
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite60% won 289 of 480
Up 2–0, closes it97% 120 of 124
Up 1–0, closes it80% 215 of 270
Lukaszewski3.55
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog41% won 278 of 673
Down 0–1, comes back14% 53 of 372
Down 0–2, comes back3% 5 of 195
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMinda7wins
AwayLukaszewski3wins
2 of 10 to a deciderMinda leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMinda85.7%6 of 7
AwayLukaszewski66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Minda7Lukaszewski3n = 10Minda took 7 of 10
S2Minda6Lukaszewski4n = 10Minda took 6 of 10
S3Minda7Lukaszewski3n = 10Minda took 7 of 10
S4Minda3Lukaszewski2n = 5Minda took 3 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricMindaLukaszewskiM − LBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match36.833.1+3.7per matchSweeps41+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMindaLukaszewskiBasisWin rate · lifetime1017 / 2005 vs 927 / 204650.7%45.3%1017 / 2005 vs 927 / 2046Avg sets wonper match2.01.8per matchAvg pointsper match39.136.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MindaMinda 1.23/Lukaszewski 3.55
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
77.5%
Minda · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Minda won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WMar 16 · 12:45M. Minda—1111113M. Lukaszewski—7880
LDec 26 · 13:35M. Minda—311101162M. Lukaszewski—117127113
LDec 25 · 20:40M. Minda—12810121M. Lukaszewski—101112143
WNov 27 · 14:55M. Minda—13611113M. Lukaszewski—1111791
WNov 27 · 09:35M. Minda—1111113M. Lukaszewski—7680
WNov 7 · 06:15M. Minda—11811113M. Lukaszewski—911791
WOct 7 · 09:20M. Minda—1111113M. Lukaszewski—9860
LSep 2 · 24:10M. Minda—9480M. Lukaszewski—1111113
WSep 1 · 21:45M. Minda—811118113M. Lukaszewski—11731182
WAug 26 · 09:45M. Minda—1211113M. Lukaszewski—10390
M. Minda10
LSep 7 · 06:25J. Zochniak1.54111111113M. Minda2.25881381LSep 7 · 05:35M. Sklensky1.471111113M. Minda2.459480WSep 7 · 04:50M. Minda2.80101113153K. Wisniewski1.3712811131LSep 7 · 03:40M. Minda1.95711101182A. Sobel1.76119129113WSep 5 · 14:15K. Klocek2.70101113121M. Minda1.3512815143WSep 5 · 13:25B. Kwodawski2.90911621M. Minda1.3511911113WSep 5 · 11:20A. Mugowski2.609980M. Minda1.421111113LSep 5 · 10:30J. Wozniak2.10117911113M. Minda1.6791111872WSep 5 · 09:00J. Przewlocki2.951191031M. Minda1.3561112113WSep 5 · 08:05M. Minda1.451111143D. Wrobel2.4569120
M. Lukaszewski10
LSep 4 · 13:55A. Myszewski1.28131111113M. Lukaszewski3.251113761LSep 4 · 13:05M. Misiak1.221111113M. Lukaszewski3.704840WSep 4 · 12:15M. Lukaszewski3.7581512113A. Lilien1.2211131081WSep 4 · 10:35M. Lukaszewski2.55811911113W. Gronowski1.4311911772WSep 4 · 08:35A. Myszewski1.411111111192M. Lukaszewski2.60213713113LSep 4 · 07:20M. Lukaszewski3.355770B. Sulkowski1.271111113LSep 4 · 06:05M. Misiak1.2511119113M. Lukaszewski3.45771121LSep 4 · 04:55W. Gronowski1.3611117113M. Lukaszewski2.80281171LSep 4 · 03:25K. Klocek1.651311113M. Lukaszewski2.0511810WSep 3 · 07:40M. Lukaszewski2.95115155113B. Sulkowski1.35711131152
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