TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13077476
Played Sep 4Finished
Mateusz Misiak
Home
2.80
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
119911611911––
Aleksander Lilien
Away
1.37
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:19 and never touched — 61.3% is still 61.3%
Graded at full timeAleksander Lilien to win
61.3%
61.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
77 points played in total.
Set by set
119911611911––
H2H Mateusz Misiak 24–47 Aleksander Lilien Mateusz Misiak has won 24 of their 71 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 13:19What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.37 (67%)
Lilien
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
24-47 in 71
Lilien
Correct
gap of 23 in 71, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Misiak 1356 vs Lilien 1500
Lilien
Correct
both rated, 144 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Misiak 60% vs Lilien 80%
Lilien
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Misiak 50% vs Lilien 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Misiak +1 · Lilien +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 71% — Strong (leans Lilien) · live re-read · sealed at 61% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Misiak form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (36%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMisiak 2.80 / Lilien 1.37
Signal prob.29% / 71%
Edge (Lilien)+4.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13077476
Misiak2.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog37% won 111 of 304
Down 0–1, comes back14% 24 of 167
Down 0–2, comes back5% 5 of 94
Lilien1.37
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite59% won 244 of 411
Up 2–0, closes it96% 127 of 132
Up 1–0, closes it78% 188 of 242
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMisiak2wins
AwayLilien8wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLilien leads 8–2, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMisiak25%1 of 4
AwayLilien83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Misiak4Lilien6n = 10Lilien took 6 of 10
S2Misiak4Lilien6n = 10Lilien took 6 of 10
S3Misiak4Lilien6n = 10Lilien took 6 of 10
S4Misiak3Lilien5n = 8Lilien took 5 of 8
S5Misiak1Lilien3n = 4Lilien took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricMisiakLilienM − LBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match37.943.8−5.9per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMisiakLilienBasisWin rate · lifetime1070 / 2016 vs 830 / 153453.1%54.1%1070 / 2016 vs 830 / 1534Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.738.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LilienMisiak 2.80/Lilien 1.37
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
71.1%
Lilien · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Lilien won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 4 · 14:40M. Misiak—119691A. Lilien—91111113
LAug 7 · 14:20M. Misiak—1241271A. Lilien—141110113
WAug 7 · 05:15M. Misiak—1115123A. Lilien—613100
LJul 8 · 14:20M. Misiak—761241A. Lilien—111110113
LJul 7 · 05:15M. Misiak—81251182A. Lilien—1110118113
LJul 7 · 03:00M. Misiak—6111011122A. Lilien—117129143
LApr 13 · 15:00M. Misiak—1110931A. Lilien—51211113
WFeb 8 · 18:50M. Misiak—1091112113A. Lilien—121191082
LJan 27 · 19:55M. Misiak—71060A. Lilien—1112113
LDec 26 · 17:45M. Misiak—11115842A. Lilien—991111113
M. Misiak10
WSep 4 · 13:05M. Misiak1.221111113M. Lukaszewski3.704840LSep 4 · 11:50M. Misiak2.6071160M. Minda1.411113113WSep 4 · 10:10M. Misiak1.511111123A. Myszewski2.4087100LSep 4 · 09:00M. Misiak1.745890W. Gronowski1.951111113WSep 4 · 07:40K. Klocek2.307121091M. Misiak1.55111012113LSep 4 · 06:55A. Myszewski2.4081211113M. Misiak1.501110431WSep 4 · 06:05M. Misiak1.2511119113M. Lukaszewski3.45771121LSep 4 · 04:30M. Misiak2.4031181192B. Sulkowski1.50117116113WSep 4 · 03:50W. Gronowski1.95611641M. Misiak1.7611711113LAug 30 · 24:10R. Stapor1.87111111113M. Misiak1.83851391
A. Lilien10
LSep 7 · 24:10A. Myszewski2.401211113A. Lilien1.5110490LSep 6 · 23:45A. Lilien1.66118991A. Linek2.1071111113LSep 6 · 22:55A. Lilien1.66511961B. Sulkowski2.0511711113WSep 6 · 21:05A. Lilien1.471111113M. Trela2.453880WSep 6 · 20:05A. Wos1.63115111082A. Lilien2.10911712113LSep 6 · 19:20A. Myszewski2.301111113A. Lilien1.528560LSep 6 · 17:20J. Michalczyk1.90111275113A. Lilien1.80710111182WSep 6 · 16:35B. Sulkowski2.258115101A. Lilien1.5511811123LSep 6 · 15:00M. Trela3.051111113A. Lilien1.319890LSep 6 · 24:10A. Lilien1.83713291K. Kufel1.83111111113
Upcoming Matches
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A. Lilien
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