TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13070162
Played Sep 3Finished
Arkadiusz Mugowski
Home
2.15
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
114511119116––
Rafal Stapor
Away
1.60
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 07:38 and never touched — 61.5% is still 61.5%
Graded at full timeRafal Stapor to win
61.5%
61.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
68 points played in total.
Set by set
114511119116––
H2H Arkadiusz Mugowski 8–14 Rafal Stapor Arkadiusz Mugowski has won 8 of their 22 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 07:38What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.60 (57%)
Stapor
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
8-14 in 22
Stapor
Wrong
gap of 6 in 22, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mugowski 1390 vs Stapor 1488
Stapor
Wrong
both rated, 98 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mugowski 40% vs Stapor 80%
Stapor
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mugowski 50% vs Stapor 70%
Stapor
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Mugowski -3 · Stapor +3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Stapor) · live re-read · sealed at 62% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Stapor form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (63%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMugowski 2.15 / Stapor 1.60
Signal prob.42% / 59%
Edge (Stapor)+1.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13070162
Mugowski2.15
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog41% won 211 of 510
Down 0–1, comes back26% 79 of 308
Down 0–2, comes back12% 21 of 170
Stapor1.60
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite63% won 421 of 668
Up 2–0, closes it96% 206 of 215
Up 1–0, closes it82% 323 of 394
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMugowski4wins
AwayStapor6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderStapor leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMugowski66.7%2 of 3
AwayStapor71.4%5 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mugowski3Stapor7n = 10Stapor took 7 of 10
S2Mugowski5Stapor5n = 10split evenly
S3Mugowski4Stapor6n = 10Stapor took 6 of 10
S4Mugowski3Stapor6n = 9Stapor took 6 of 9
S5Mugowski3Stapor1n = 4Mugowski took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricMugowskiStaporM − SBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match37.341.5−4.2per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMugowskiStaporBasisWin rate · lifetime949 / 2069 vs 633 / 111445.9%56.8%949 / 2069 vs 633 / 1114Avg sets wonper match1.82.2per matchAvg pointsper match37.039.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StaporMugowski 2.15/Stapor 1.60
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
58.5%
Stapor · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Mugowski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 30 · 23:45A. Mugowski—721181R. Stapor—11113113
WAug 23 · 04:50A. Mugowski—5131110113R. Stapor—111191292
LAug 21 · 12:15A. Mugowski—712481R. Stapor—111011113
LJul 26 · 23:20A. Mugowski—411751R. Stapor—11511113
WJul 26 · 21:00A. Mugowski—111174113R. Stapor—79111192
WJun 11 · 18:30A. Mugowski—81111113R. Stapor—116921
LMay 3 · 24:40A. Mugowski—671181R. Stapor—11118113
LMay 2 · 22:15A. Mugowski—119911122R. Stapor—911118143
LMar 13 · 24:20A. Mugowski—8870R. Stapor—1111113
WMar 12 · 22:00A. Mugowski—114811113R. Stapor—51111892
A. Mugowski10
WSep 5 · 13:50A. Mugowski1.921311143J. Wozniak1.76115120LSep 5 · 12:35A. Mugowski1.73111181242K. Klocek2.00991114113LSep 5 · 11:20A. Mugowski2.609980M. Minda1.421111113LSep 5 · 10:05J. Przewlocki1.951211123A. Mugowski1.74104100WSep 5 · 09:20A. Mugowski1.90921111113B. Kwodawski1.7511115842LSep 4 · 08:05A. Mugowski2.608890D. Solilo1.421111113LSep 4 · 06:25A. Lilien1.451111123A. Mugowski2.5075100LSep 4 · 05:35J. Zochniak1.5241312133A. Mugowski2.30111110111LSep 4 · 04:50A. Mugowski5.20581471G. Poliniewicz1.12111112113WSep 4 · 03:40A. Mugowski2.201111113M. Minda1.606770
R. Stapor10
WSep 3 · 13:55A. Mugowski2.5094100R. Stapor1.471111123LSep 3 · 13:05M. Kolek1.5012115123R. Stapor2.4010911101LSep 3 · 12:15R. Stapor2.156118101J. Witkowski1.6011711123LSep 3 · 10:35R. Stapor1.86118111192B. Czerwinski1.80611813113WSep 3 · 09:50A. Lilien1.65613481R. Stapor2.07111111113WSep 3 · 07:20R. Stapor1.3891115113S. Wnek2.751151381WSep 3 · 06:05B. Sulkowski1.8094100R. Stapor1.861111123WSep 3 · 04:55K. Klocek2.006101161R. Stapor1.7011125113LSep 3 · 03:25M. Lukaszewski3.60111111113R. Stapor1.26713891WSep 2 · 14:20K. Rudomina1.411213781R. Stapor2.60141111113
Upcoming Matches
A. Mugowski
Nothing scheduled
R. Stapor
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