TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13081540
Played Sep 5Finished
Jacek Przewlocki
Home
1.95
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
12101141210––––
Arkadiusz Mugowski
Away
1.74
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 07:59 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJacek Przewlocki to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
59 points played in total.
Set by set
12101141210––––
H2H Jacek Przewlocki 16–26 Arkadiusz Mugowski Jacek Przewlocki has won 16 of their 42 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 07:59What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.74 (53%)
Mugowski
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
16-26 in 42
Mugowski
Wrong
gap of 10 in 42, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Przewlocki 1332 vs Mugowski 1402
Mugowski
Wrong
both rated, 70 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Przewlocki 60% vs Mugowski 20%
Przewlocki
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Przewlocki 40% vs Mugowski 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Przewlocki -1 · Mugowski +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Mugowski) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mugowski form (20%) is below what odds imply (57%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPrzewlocki 1.95 / Mugowski 1.74
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Mugowski)+1.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13081540
Przewlocki1.95
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog42% won 89 of 210
Down 0–1, comes back23% 26 of 112
Down 0–2, comes back7% 4 of 61
Mugowski1.74
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite56% won 118 of 210
Up 2–0, closes it95% 58 of 61
Up 1–0, closes it80% 92 of 115
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePrzewlocki6wins
AwayMugowski4wins
2 of 10 to a deciderPrzewlocki leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePrzewlocki83.3%5 of 6
AwayMugowski75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Przewlocki6Mugowski4n = 10Przewlocki took 6 of 10
S2Przewlocki6Mugowski4n = 10Przewlocki took 6 of 10
S3Przewlocki6Mugowski4n = 10Przewlocki took 6 of 10
S4Przewlocki3Mugowski3n = 6split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricPrzewlockiMugowskiP − MBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match37.634.0+3.6per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPrzewlockiMugowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime525 / 1078 vs 944 / 206548.7%45.7%525 / 1078 vs 944 / 2065Avg sets wonper match2.01.8per matchAvg pointsper match38.737.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MugowskiPrzewlocki 1.95/Mugowski 1.74
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Mugowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Przewlocki won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 27 · 06:55J. Przewlocki—7911101A. Mugowski—11114123
LApr 29 · 05:25J. Przewlocki—8880A. Mugowski—1111113
WApr 29 · 03:00J. Przewlocki—411119123A. Mugowski—115711102
WApr 7 · 13:55J. Przewlocki—11118113A. Mugowski—871191
LApr 7 · 08:35J. Przewlocki—1110812102A. Mugowski—9121110123
WFeb 9 · 13:35J. Przewlocki—11119113A. Mugowski—591151
WJan 31 · 05:10J. Przewlocki—1111113A. Mugowski—3580
LJan 24 · 06:15J. Przewlocki—7215111A. Mugowski—111113133
WDec 27 · 11:35J. Przewlocki—1111113A. Mugowski—9290
WDec 14 · 15:15J. Przewlocki—1111113A. Mugowski—8950
J. Przewlocki10
LSep 5 · 14:35J. Przewlocki1.85119881B. Kwodawski1.8551111113LSep 5 · 13:00J. Przewlocki1.951511610102J. Wozniak1.751391112123LSep 5 · 11:45J. Przewlocki1.959470K. Klocek1.701111113LSep 5 · 09:00J. Przewlocki2.951191031M. Minda1.3561112113WSep 5 · 07:40W. Gronowski2.0091111882J. Przewlocki1.71115911113LSep 5 · 06:50K. Klocek1.59131011113J. Przewlocki2.171112561WSep 5 · 06:00J. Przewlocki2.001112123J. Wozniak1.71910100WSep 5 · 04:25J. Przewlocki1.801111113D. Wrobel1.864980LSep 5 · 03:40M. Minda1.401111123J. Przewlocki2.6577100LAug 31 · 13:55J. Przewlocki2.2573150P. Blocho1.541111173
A. Mugowski10
WSep 5 · 13:50A. Mugowski1.921311143J. Wozniak1.76115120LSep 5 · 12:35A. Mugowski1.73111181242K. Klocek2.00991114113LSep 5 · 11:20A. Mugowski2.609980M. Minda1.421111113WSep 5 · 09:20A. Mugowski1.90921111113B. Kwodawski1.7511115842LSep 4 · 08:05A. Mugowski2.608890D. Solilo1.421111113LSep 4 · 06:25A. Lilien1.451111123A. Mugowski2.5075100LSep 4 · 05:35J. Zochniak1.5241312133A. Mugowski2.30111110111LSep 4 · 04:50A. Mugowski5.20581471G. Poliniewicz1.12111112113WSep 4 · 03:40A. Mugowski2.201111113M. Minda1.606770LSep 3 · 13:55A. Mugowski2.5094100R. Stapor1.471111123
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