TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13075493
Played Sep 4Finished
Aleksander Lilien
Home
1.45
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 4
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1171151210––––
Arkadiusz Mugowski
Away
2.50
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 04:08 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeAleksander Lilien to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
56 points played in total.
Set by set
1171151210––––
H2H Aleksander Lilien 75–37 Arkadiusz Mugowski Arkadiusz Mugowski has won 37 of their 112 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 04:08What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.45 (63%)
Lilien
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
75-37 in 112
Lilien
Correct
gap of 38 in 112, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Lilien 1485 vs Mugowski 1377
Lilien
Correct
both rated, 108 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Lilien 20% vs Mugowski 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Lilien 30% vs Mugowski 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Lilien -4 · Mugowski -2
Lilien
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 68% — Clear lean (leans Lilien) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mugowski form (20%) is below what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLilien 1.45 / Mugowski 2.50
Signal prob.68% / 32%
Edge (Lilien)+4.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13075493
Lilien1.45
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite60% won 254 of 425
Up 2–0, closes it96% 130 of 135
Up 1–0, closes it77% 192 of 248
Mugowski2.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog42% won 215 of 516
Down 0–1, comes back26% 79 of 309
Down 0–2, comes back13% 22 of 171
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeLilien6wins
AwayMugowski4wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLilien leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLilien80%4 of 5
AwayMugowski60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Lilien5Mugowski5n = 10split evenly
S2Lilien9Mugowski1n = 10Lilien took 9 of 10
S3Lilien6Mugowski4n = 10Lilien took 6 of 10
S4Lilien3Mugowski3n = 6split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricLilienMugowskiL − MBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match38.435.2+3.2per matchSweeps31+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLilienMugowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime829 / 1533 vs 943 / 206054.1%45.8%829 / 1533 vs 943 / 2060Avg sets wonper match2.11.8per matchAvg pointsper match38.637.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LilienLilien 1.45/Mugowski 2.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
67.7%
Lilien · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Lilien won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 4 · 06:25A. Lilien—1111123A. Mugowski—75100
WSep 3 · 12:40A. Lilien—91411113A. Mugowski—1112791
LAug 9 · 23:20A. Lilien—1019971A. Mugowski—121711113
LAug 9 · 15:00A. Lilien—10950A. Mugowski—1211113
LJul 26 · 20:30A. Lilien—11119932A. Mugowski—371111113
WMay 14 · 05:15A. Lilien—41111113A. Mugowski—115791
WMay 13 · 13:55A. Lilien—11119113A. Mugowski—761141
WMay 5 · 06:55A. Lilien—1113123A. Mugowski—911100
WApr 29 · 11:25A. Lilien—1111113A. Mugowski—6760
LApr 21 · 09:25A. Lilien—613111052A. Mugowski—1111912113
A. Lilien10
LSep 7 · 24:10A. Myszewski2.401211113A. Lilien1.5110490LSep 6 · 23:45A. Lilien1.66118991A. Linek2.1071111113LSep 6 · 22:55A. Lilien1.66511961B. Sulkowski2.0511711113WSep 6 · 21:05A. Lilien1.471111113M. Trela2.453880WSep 6 · 20:05A. Wos1.63115111082A. Lilien2.10911712113LSep 6 · 19:20A. Myszewski2.301111113A. Lilien1.528560LSep 6 · 17:20J. Michalczyk1.90111275113A. Lilien1.80710111182WSep 6 · 16:35B. Sulkowski2.258115101A. Lilien1.5511811123LSep 6 · 15:00M. Trela3.051111113A. Lilien1.319890LSep 6 · 24:10A. Lilien1.83713291K. Kufel1.83111111113
A. Mugowski10
WSep 5 · 13:50A. Mugowski1.921311143J. Wozniak1.76115120LSep 5 · 12:35A. Mugowski1.73111181242K. Klocek2.00991114113LSep 5 · 11:20A. Mugowski2.609980M. Minda1.421111113LSep 5 · 10:05J. Przewlocki1.951211123A. Mugowski1.74104100WSep 5 · 09:20A. Mugowski1.90921111113B. Kwodawski1.7511115842LSep 4 · 08:05A. Mugowski2.608890D. Solilo1.421111113LSep 4 · 05:35J. Zochniak1.5241312133A. Mugowski2.30111110111LSep 4 · 04:50A. Mugowski5.20581471G. Poliniewicz1.12111112113WSep 4 · 03:40A. Mugowski2.201111113M. Minda1.606770LSep 3 · 13:55A. Mugowski2.5094100R. Stapor1.471111123
Upcoming Matches
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