TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13077506
Played Sep 5Finished
Arkadiusz Mugowski
Home
1.90
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 4
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
911211115118114
Bartosz Kwodawski
Away
1.75
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:18 and never touched — 56.6% is still 56.6%
Graded at full timeBartosz Kwodawski to win
56.6%
56.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
83 points played in total.
Set by set
911211115118114
H2H Arkadiusz Mugowski 11–10 Bartosz Kwodawski Bartosz Kwodawski has won 10 of their 21 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 13:18What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.75 (52%)
Kwodawski
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
11-10 in 21
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mugowski 1391 vs Kwodawski 1375
Mugowski
Correct
both rated, 16 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mugowski 20% vs Kwodawski 60%
Kwodawski
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mugowski 30% vs Kwodawski 50%
Kwodawski
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Mugowski -4 · Kwodawski +2
Mugowski
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kwodawski) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mugowski form (20%) is below what odds imply (53%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMugowski 1.90 / Kwodawski 1.75
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Kwodawski)+1.9pp
TT Elite Series · #13077506
Mugowski1.90
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog41% won 215 of 519
Down 0–1, comes back26% 80 of 312
Down 0–2, comes back12% 21 of 172
Kwodawski1.75
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite67% won 38 of 57
Up 2–0, closes it91% 20 of 22
Up 1–0, closes it85% 29 of 34
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMugowski3wins
AwayKwodawski7wins
4 of 10 to a deciderKwodawski leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMugowski20%1 of 5
AwayKwodawski60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mugowski5Kwodawski5n = 10split evenly
S2Mugowski3Kwodawski7n = 10Kwodawski took 7 of 10
S3Mugowski5Kwodawski5n = 10split evenly
S4Mugowski2Kwodawski7n = 9Kwodawski took 7 of 9
S5Mugowski2Kwodawski2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricMugowskiKwodawskiM − KBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match39.442.8−3.4per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMugowskiKwodawskiBasisWin rate · lifetime943 / 2064 vs 191 / 45245.7%42.3%943 / 2064 vs 191 / 452Avg sets wonper match1.81.8per matchAvg pointsper match37.035.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KwodawskiMugowski 1.90/Kwodawski 1.75
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Kwodawski · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Mugowski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJun 11 · 16:15A. Mugowski—1196101B. Kwodawski—61111123
LMay 26 · 15:00A. Mugowski—11180B. Kwodawski—1113113
LApr 18 · 18:15A. Mugowski—1691181B. Kwodawski—18116113
LMar 15 · 10:30A. Mugowski—51161452B. Kwodawski—1141112113
LFeb 21 · 21:35A. Mugowski—113111062B. Kwodawski—711512113
LDec 23 · 14:30A. Mugowski—119791B. Kwodawski—81111113
LNov 10 · 12:25A. Mugowski—115681B. Kwodawski—81111113
WAug 19 · 10:35A. Mugowski—1112135113B. Kwodawski—714111182
WAug 12 · 17:45A. Mugowski—91111113B. Kwodawski—114791
WAug 12 · 11:00A. Mugowski—1011119113B. Kwodawski—12991172
A. Mugowski10
WSep 5 · 13:50A. Mugowski1.921311143J. Wozniak1.76115120LSep 5 · 12:35A. Mugowski1.73111181242K. Klocek2.00991114113LSep 5 · 11:20A. Mugowski2.609980M. Minda1.421111113LSep 5 · 10:05J. Przewlocki1.951211123A. Mugowski1.74104100LSep 4 · 08:05A. Mugowski2.608890D. Solilo1.421111113LSep 4 · 06:25A. Lilien1.451111123A. Mugowski2.5075100LSep 4 · 05:35J. Zochniak1.5241312133A. Mugowski2.30111110111LSep 4 · 04:50A. Mugowski5.20581471G. Poliniewicz1.12111112113WSep 4 · 03:40A. Mugowski2.201111113M. Minda1.606770LSep 3 · 13:55A. Mugowski2.5094100R. Stapor1.471111123
B. Kwodawski10
LSep 5 · 19:40D. Poloszczanski2.40128612113B. Kwodawski1.501011111082LSep 5 · 18:55B. Sulkowski1.5311119113B. Kwodawski2.30671161WSep 5 · 18:10B. Kwodawski3.055111011113A. Lilien1.3111812872LSep 5 · 16:35B. Kwodawski1.639550K. Kufel2.151111113LSep 5 · 15:50J. Michalczyk1.78311812113B. Kwodawski1.93116111042WSep 5 · 14:35J. Przewlocki1.85119881B. Kwodawski1.8551111113LSep 5 · 13:25B. Kwodawski2.90911621M. Minda1.3511911113WSep 5 · 12:10J. Wozniak1.8710650B. Kwodawski1.811211113LSep 5 · 10:55K. Klocek1.9511811113B. Kwodawski1.77911451WSep 2 · 14:40B. Kwodawski1.5711118113M. Zwolinski2.20491151
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