TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13083028
Played Sep 5Finished
Jakub Michalczyk
Home
1.78
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
3111168111210114
Bartosz Kwodawski
Away
1.93
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:33 and never touched — 61.2% is still 61.2%
Graded at full timeJakub Michalczyk to win
61.2%
61.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
87 points played in total.
Set by set
3111168111210114
H2H Jakub Michalczyk 4–1 Bartosz Kwodawski Bartosz Kwodawski has won 1 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 14:33What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.78 (52%)
Michalczyk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-1 in 5
Michalczyk
Correct
gap of 3 in 5, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Michalczyk 1373 vs Kwodawski 1370
Michalczyk
Correct
both rated, 3 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Michalczyk 40% vs Kwodawski 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Michalczyk 30% vs Kwodawski 50%
Kwodawski
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Michalczyk +1 · Kwodawski +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Michalczyk) · live re-read · sealed at 61% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kwodawski form (40%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMichalczyk 1.78 / Kwodawski 1.93
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Michalczyk)+2.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13083028
Michalczyk1.78
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite60% won 21 of 35
Up 2–0, closes it92% 11 of 12
Up 1–0, closes it84% 16 of 19
Kwodawski1.93
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog29% won 43 of 148
Down 0–1, comes back17% 16 of 93
Down 0–2, comes back10% 7 of 68
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeMichalczyk4wins
AwayKwodawski1wins
1 of 5 to a deciderMichalczyk leads 4–1, and 1 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMichalczyk100%3 of 3
AwayKwodawskin = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Michalczyk3Kwodawski2n = 5Michalczyk took 3 of 5
S2Michalczyk2Kwodawski3n = 5Kwodawski took 3 of 5
S3Michalczyk4Kwodawski1n = 5Michalczyk took 4 of 5
S4Michalczyk2Kwodawski1n = 3Michalczyk took 2 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home120%
3–1Four sets, home240%
3–2Decider, home120%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away120%
These 5 meetings
MetricMichalczykKwodawskiM − KBasisWins41+3in 5 meetingsFirst set32+1of 5Avg pointsper match37.034.8+2.2per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMichalczykKwodawskiBasisWin rate · lifetime175 / 333 vs 193 / 45752.6%42.2%175 / 333 vs 193 / 457Avg sets wonper match2.11.8per matchAvg pointsper match40.235.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MichalczykMichalczyk 1.78/Kwodawski 1.93
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Michalczyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Michalczyk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
LAug 15 · 18:55J. Michalczyk—66100B. Kwodawski—1111123
WAug 15 · 12:10J. Michalczyk—11511113B. Kwodawski—811861
WAug 1 · 16:35J. Michalczyk—119119113B. Kwodawski—81151192
WSep 2 · 18:55J. Michalczyk—1111113B. Kwodawski—8990
WSep 2 · 11:00J. Michalczyk—71211113B. Kwodawski—1110791
J. Michalczyk10
LSep 6 · 19:40J. Michalczyk2.21811981B. Sulkowski1.5711211113WSep 6 · 18:30J. Michalczyk2.50411117113A. Wos1.4611681172WSep 6 · 17:20J. Michalczyk1.90111275113A. Lilien1.80710111182LSep 6 · 16:15M. Trela2.604101111113J. Michalczyk1.4211127772WSep 6 · 15:25J. Michalczyk1.541111108113A. Myszewski2.2569121192WSep 6 · 14:35J. Michalczyk1.6311711113T. Pisarczyk2.10611871WSep 6 · 13:00J. Michalczyk1.791315113M. Zagajewski1.88111330WSep 6 · 11:45J. Michalczyk1.77111120113P. Staniszewski1.90972281LSep 6 · 10:05J. Michalczyk1.9589111162I. Dabrowski1.74111174113LSep 6 · 09:00J. Michalczyk2.153860D. Wasilewski1.631111113
B. Kwodawski10
LSep 5 · 19:40D. Poloszczanski2.40128612113B. Kwodawski1.501011111082LSep 5 · 18:55B. Sulkowski1.5311119113B. Kwodawski2.30671161WSep 5 · 18:10B. Kwodawski3.055111011113A. Lilien1.3111812872LSep 5 · 16:35B. Kwodawski1.639550K. Kufel2.151111113WSep 5 · 14:35J. Przewlocki1.85119881B. Kwodawski1.8551111113LSep 5 · 13:25B. Kwodawski2.90911621M. Minda1.3511911113WSep 5 · 12:10J. Wozniak1.8710650B. Kwodawski1.811211113LSep 5 · 10:55K. Klocek1.9511811113B. Kwodawski1.77911451LSep 5 · 09:20A. Mugowski1.90921111113B. Kwodawski1.7511115842WSep 2 · 14:40B. Kwodawski1.5711118113M. Zwolinski2.20491151
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