TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13082625
Played Sep 5Finished
Arkadiusz Mugowski
Home
1.92
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
13111151412––––
Jakub Wozniak
Away
1.76
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:49 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJakub Wozniak to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
66 points played in total.
Set by set
13111151412––––
H2H Arkadiusz Mugowski 28–27 Jakub Wozniak Jakub Wozniak has won 27 of their 55 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 12:49What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.76 (52%)
Wozniak
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
28-27 in 55
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mugowski 1361 vs Wozniak 1381
Wozniak
Wrong
both rated, 19 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mugowski 20% vs Wozniak 80%
Wozniak
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mugowski 20% vs Wozniak 50%
Wozniak
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Mugowski -3 · Wozniak +1
Mugowski
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Wozniak)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Wozniak form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (57%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMugowski 1.92 / Wozniak 1.76
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Wozniak)+1.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13082625
Mugowski1.92
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog41% won 215 of 519
Down 0–1, comes back26% 80 of 312
Down 0–2, comes back12% 21 of 172
Wozniak1.76
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As favourite59% won 62 of 106
Up 2–0, closes it100% 24 of 24
Up 1–0, closes it79% 45 of 57
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMugowski5wins
AwayWozniak5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMugowski80%4 of 5
AwayWozniak80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mugowski5Wozniak5n = 10split evenly
S2Mugowski6Wozniak4n = 10Mugowski took 6 of 10
S3Mugowski5Wozniak5n = 10split evenly
S4Mugowski4Wozniak3n = 7Mugowski took 4 of 7
S5Mugowski1Wozniak2n = 3Wozniak took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricMugowskiWozniakM − WBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match39.138.8+0.3per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMugowskiWozniakBasisWin rate · lifetime943 / 2065 vs 291 / 61245.7%47.6%943 / 2065 vs 291 / 612Avg sets wonper match1.81.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.037.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
WozniakMugowski 1.92/Wozniak 1.76
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Wozniak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Mugowski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 29 · 04:25A. Mugowski—13117133J. Wozniak—11911111
WJun 4 · 24:10A. Mugowski—91311113J. Wozniak—1111471
LJun 3 · 21:45A. Mugowski—8111211132J. Wozniak—1151013153
LApr 24 · 17:30A. Mugowski—81111292J. Wozniak—1111710113
LApr 11 · 01:25A. Mugowski—8870J. Wozniak—1111113
WApr 10 · 22:55A. Mugowski—1113113J. Wozniak—51190
WMar 28 · 09:45A. Mugowski—1111113J. Wozniak—9770
LMar 7 · 02:25A. Mugowski—1176111J. Wozniak—61111133
WMar 6 · 23:55A. Mugowski—1210511113J. Wozniak—101211872
LFeb 28 · 13:35A. Mugowski—811491J. Wozniak—11611113
A. Mugowski10
LSep 5 · 12:35A. Mugowski1.73111181242K. Klocek2.00991114113LSep 5 · 11:20A. Mugowski2.609980M. Minda1.421111113LSep 5 · 10:05J. Przewlocki1.951211123A. Mugowski1.74104100WSep 5 · 09:20A. Mugowski1.90921111113B. Kwodawski1.7511115842LSep 4 · 08:05A. Mugowski2.608890D. Solilo1.421111113LSep 4 · 06:25A. Lilien1.451111123A. Mugowski2.5075100LSep 4 · 05:35J. Zochniak1.5241312133A. Mugowski2.30111110111LSep 4 · 04:50A. Mugowski5.20581471G. Poliniewicz1.12111112113WSep 4 · 03:40A. Mugowski2.201111113M. Minda1.606770LSep 3 · 13:55A. Mugowski2.5094100R. Stapor1.471111123
J. Wozniak10
WSep 5 · 13:00J. Przewlocki1.951511610102J. Wozniak1.751391112123LSep 5 · 12:10J. Wozniak1.8710650B. Kwodawski1.811211113WSep 5 · 10:30J. Wozniak2.10117911113M. Minda1.6791111872WSep 5 · 09:45K. Klocek1.87111171152J. Wozniak1.80751113113WSep 5 · 08:30K. Klocek1.87119211112J. Wozniak1.83811117133WSep 5 · 07:15J. Wozniak1.8581111113D. Wrobel1.80112571LSep 5 · 06:00J. Przewlocki2.001112123J. Wozniak1.71910100LSep 5 · 04:50M. Minda1.54111110123J. Wozniak2.256712101LSep 5 · 03:20W. Gronowski1.9511118113J. Wozniak1.75761181LAug 29 · 14:20A. Szoltysek2.7014116113J. Wozniak1.401281161
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