TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13075499
Played Sep 4Finished
Jakub Zochniak
Home
1.52
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
411131112101311––
Arkadiusz Mugowski
Away
2.30
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 04:09 and never touched — 55.5% is still 55.5%
Graded at full timeJakub Zochniak to win
55.5%
55.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
85 points played in total.
Set by set
411131112101311––
H2H Jakub Zochniak 77–63 Arkadiusz Mugowski Arkadiusz Mugowski has won 63 of their 140 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 04:09What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.52 (60%)
Zochniak
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
77-63 in 140
Zochniak
Correct
gap of 14 in 140, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Zochniak 1592 vs Mugowski 1417
Zochniak
Correct
both rated, 175 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Zochniak 60% vs Mugowski 40%
Zochniak
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Zochniak 50% vs Mugowski 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Zochniak +2 · Mugowski -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% — Clear lean (leans Zochniak) · live re-read · sealed at 56% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsZochniak 1.52 / Mugowski 2.30
Signal prob.63% / 37%
Edge (Zochniak)+3.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13075499
Zochniak1.52
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite66% won 334 of 508
Up 2–0, closes it94% 152 of 162
Up 1–0, closes it77% 243 of 314
Mugowski2.30
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog42% won 215 of 517
Down 0–1, comes back26% 80 of 311
Down 0–2, comes back12% 21 of 171
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeZochniak6wins
AwayMugowski4wins
5 of 10 to a deciderZochniak leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeZochniak50%4 of 8
AwayMugowskin = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Zochniak8Mugowski2n = 10Zochniak took 8 of 10
S2Zochniak4Mugowski6n = 10Mugowski took 6 of 10
S3Zochniak5Mugowski5n = 10split evenly
S4Zochniak4Mugowski4n = 8split evenly
S5Zochniak3Mugowski2n = 5Zochniak took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricZochniakMugowskiZ − MBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match43.139.9+3.2per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricZochniakMugowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime1192 / 2262 vs 949 / 207052.7%45.9%1192 / 2262 vs 949 / 2070Avg sets wonper match2.11.8per matchAvg pointsper match38.037.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ZochniakZochniak 1.52/Mugowski 2.30
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
63.4%
Zochniak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Zochniak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WMay 24 · 12:45J. Zochniak—1111113A. Mugowski—7390
WMay 20 · 23:45J. Zochniak—91112113A. Mugowski—1181031
LMay 20 · 21:20J. Zochniak—1112117102A. Mugowski—714911123
WMay 6 · 18:10J. Zochniak—11101011113A. Mugowski—81212692
LApr 29 · 10:10J. Zochniak—1210951A. Mugowski—101211113
LApr 27 · 01:10J. Zochniak—1161091A. Mugowski—61112113
WApr 26 · 22:45J. Zochniak—1211113A. Mugowski—10980
WApr 23 · 23:45J. Zochniak—891111113A. Mugowski—11115672
WApr 23 · 21:20J. Zochniak—119911113A. Mugowski—91111672
LApr 17 · 07:45J. Zochniak—111410362A. Mugowski—7121211113
J. Zochniak10
WSep 7 · 07:40J. Zochniak1.72119119133A. Sobel2.00711811112WSep 7 · 06:25J. Zochniak1.54111111113M. Minda2.25881381LSep 7 · 05:15J. Zochniak1.75991281D. Solilo1.95111110113LSep 7 · 04:00M. Sklensky1.42111111113J. Zochniak2.60471351LSep 7 · 03:20J. Zochniak2.95881141K. Wisniewski1.3311116113LSep 6 · 19:40D. Jadam1.61178912113J. Zochniak2.201511111092WSep 6 · 18:50F. Mlynarski1.40810111192J. Zochniak2.75111254113WSep 6 · 18:05J. Zochniak2.6371111123K. Kapik1.441159101WSep 6 · 16:30J. Zochniak2.75139144113J. Kuzmicz1.401111121162LSep 6 · 15:45L. Pietraszko1.73961111113J. Zochniak2.0011119562
A. Mugowski10
WSep 5 · 13:50A. Mugowski1.921311143J. Wozniak1.76115120LSep 5 · 12:35A. Mugowski1.73111181242K. Klocek2.00991114113LSep 5 · 11:20A. Mugowski2.609980M. Minda1.421111113LSep 5 · 10:05J. Przewlocki1.951211123A. Mugowski1.74104100WSep 5 · 09:20A. Mugowski1.90921111113B. Kwodawski1.7511115842LSep 4 · 08:05A. Mugowski2.608890D. Solilo1.421111113LSep 4 · 06:25A. Lilien1.451111123A. Mugowski2.5075100LSep 4 · 04:50A. Mugowski5.20581471G. Poliniewicz1.12111112113WSep 4 · 03:40A. Mugowski2.201111113M. Minda1.606770LSep 3 · 13:55A. Mugowski2.5094100R. Stapor1.471111123
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