TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13070615
Played Sep 3Finished
Rafal Stapor
Home
1.86
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1168111181113911
Bartosz Czerwinski
Away
1.80
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:41 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeBartosz Czerwinski to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
99 points played in total.
Set by set
1168111181113911
H2H Rafal Stapor 0–5 Bartosz Czerwinski Rafal Stapor has won 0 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 09:41What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Czerwinski
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-5 in 5
Czerwinski
Correct
gap of 5 in 5, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Stapor 1487 vs Czerwinski 1415
Stapor
Wrong
both rated, 72 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stapor 80% vs Czerwinski 60%
Stapor
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stapor 60% vs Czerwinski 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Stapor +1 · Czerwinski -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Czerwinski)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Stapor form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (54%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStapor 1.86 / Czerwinski 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Czerwinski)+3.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13070615
Stapor1.86
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog38% won 105 of 280
Down 0–1, comes back17% 30 of 175
Down 0–2, comes back7% 7 of 99
Czerwinski1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite60% won 69 of 115
Up 2–0, closes it100% 30 of 30
Up 1–0, closes it84% 51 of 61
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeStapor0wins
AwayCzerwinski5wins
5 of 5 to a deciderCzerwinski leads 5–0, and 5 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStapor0%0 of 3
AwayCzerwinskin = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stapor3Czerwinski2n = 5Stapor took 3 of 5
S2Stapor2Czerwinski3n = 5Czerwinski took 3 of 5
S3Stapor2Czerwinski3n = 5Czerwinski took 3 of 5
S4Stapor3Czerwinski2n = 5Stapor took 3 of 5
S5Stapor0Czerwinski5n = 5Czerwinski took 5 of 5
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away5100%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 5 meetings
MetricStaporCzerwinskiS − CBasisWins05−5in 5 meetingsFirst set32+1of 5Avg pointsper match43.644.4−0.8per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStaporCzerwinskiBasisWin rate · lifetime634 / 1116 vs 494 / 106656.8%46.3%634 / 1116 vs 494 / 1066Avg sets wonper match2.21.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.937.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
CzerwinskiStapor 1.86/Czerwinski 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Czerwinski · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Czerwinski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
LJun 23 · 07:15R. Stapor—81181172B. Czerwinski—113114113
LJun 23 · 04:50R. Stapor—11117882B. Czerwinski—921111113
LJun 22 · 07:15R. Stapor—11811432B. Czerwinski—711511113
LJun 22 · 04:50R. Stapor—11781192B. Czerwinski—811118113
LJun 10 · 05:15R. Stapor—96111182B. Czerwinski—111174113
R. Stapor10
WSep 3 · 13:55A. Mugowski2.5094100R. Stapor1.471111123LSep 3 · 13:05M. Kolek1.5012115123R. Stapor2.4010911101LSep 3 · 12:15R. Stapor2.156118101J. Witkowski1.6011711123WSep 3 · 09:50A. Lilien1.65613481R. Stapor2.07111111113LSep 3 · 08:35A. Mugowski2.1511511113R. Stapor1.60411961WSep 3 · 07:20R. Stapor1.3891115113S. Wnek2.751151381WSep 3 · 06:05B. Sulkowski1.8094100R. Stapor1.861111123WSep 3 · 04:55K. Klocek2.006101161R. Stapor1.7011125113LSep 3 · 03:25M. Lukaszewski3.60111111113R. Stapor1.26713891WSep 2 · 14:20K. Rudomina1.411213781R. Stapor2.60141111113
B. Czerwinski10
LSep 7 · 06:30B. Czerwinski1.86115751S. Brud1.8361111113WSep 7 · 05:15B. Czerwinski1.541111113K. Sulkowski2.254950WSep 7 · 04:10A. Szoltysek2.6511561182B. Czerwinski1.40711119113WSep 7 · 03:25B. Czerwinski—117118113M. Zwolinski—71161132WSep 3 · 14:20A. Lilien2.05116117102B. Czerwinski1.66511711123WSep 3 · 13:30J. Witkowski1.8079120B. Czerwinski1.901111143LSep 3 · 11:25A. Mugowski2.008111111113B. Czerwinski1.7011791342LSep 3 · 09:00M. Kolek1.7011711113B. Czerwinski2.00711561WSep 1 · 14:40G. Kesik1.861590B. Czerwinski1.811111113WSep 1 · 13:30B. Czerwinski1.88611911113K. Rudomina1.7911711582
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