TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13070610
Played Sep 3Finished
Arkadiusz Mugowski
Home
2.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
8111171191113114
Bartosz Czerwinski
Away
1.70
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:37 and never touched — 54.7% is still 54.7%
Graded at full timeBartosz Czerwinski to win
54.7%
54.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
96 points played in total.
Set by set
8111171191113114
H2H Arkadiusz Mugowski 0–2 Bartosz Czerwinski Arkadiusz Mugowski has won 0 of their 2 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 09:37What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.70 (54%)
Czerwinski
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-2 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Mugowski 1414 vs Czerwinski 1428
Czerwinski
Wrong
both rated, 13 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mugowski 40% vs Czerwinski 60%
Czerwinski
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mugowski 50% vs Czerwinski 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Mugowski -1 · Czerwinski +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Czerwinski) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMugowski 2.00 / Czerwinski 1.70
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Czerwinski)+0.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13070610
Mugowski2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog41% won 211 of 510
Down 0–1, comes back26% 79 of 308
Down 0–2, comes back12% 21 of 170
Czerwinski1.70
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite60% won 69 of 115
Up 2–0, closes it100% 30 of 30
Up 1–0, closes it84% 51 of 61
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeMugowski0wins
AwayCzerwinski2wins
2 of 2 to a deciderCzerwinski leads 2–0, and 2 of those 2 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away2
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricMugowskiCzerwinskiM − CBasisWins02−2in 2 meetingsFirst set20+2of 2Avg pointsper match43.046.5−3.5per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMugowskiCzerwinskiBasisWin rate · lifetime947 / 2068 vs 495 / 106745.8%46.4%947 / 2068 vs 495 / 1067Avg sets wonper match1.81.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.037.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
CzerwinskiMugowski 2.00/Czerwinski 1.70
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.1%
Czerwinski · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Mugowski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
LAug 27 · 07:40A. Mugowski—12661162B. Czerwinski—1011114113
LNov 17 · 05:35A. Mugowski—111161162B. Czerwinski—613115113
A. Mugowski10
WSep 5 · 13:50A. Mugowski1.921311143J. Wozniak1.76115120LSep 5 · 12:35A. Mugowski1.73111181242K. Klocek2.00991114113LSep 5 · 11:20A. Mugowski2.609980M. Minda1.421111113LSep 5 · 10:05J. Przewlocki1.951211123A. Mugowski1.74104100WSep 5 · 09:20A. Mugowski1.90921111113B. Kwodawski1.7511115842LSep 4 · 08:05A. Mugowski2.608890D. Solilo1.421111113LSep 4 · 06:25A. Lilien1.451111123A. Mugowski2.5075100LSep 4 · 05:35J. Zochniak1.5241312133A. Mugowski2.30111110111LSep 4 · 04:50A. Mugowski5.20581471G. Poliniewicz1.12111112113WSep 4 · 03:40A. Mugowski2.201111113M. Minda1.606770
B. Czerwinski10
LSep 7 · 06:30B. Czerwinski1.86115751S. Brud1.8361111113WSep 7 · 05:15B. Czerwinski1.541111113K. Sulkowski2.254950WSep 7 · 04:10A. Szoltysek2.6511561182B. Czerwinski1.40711119113WSep 7 · 03:25B. Czerwinski—117118113M. Zwolinski—71161132WSep 3 · 14:20A. Lilien2.05116117102B. Czerwinski1.66511711123WSep 3 · 13:30J. Witkowski1.8079120B. Czerwinski1.901111143WSep 3 · 10:35R. Stapor1.86118111192B. Czerwinski1.80611813113LSep 3 · 09:00M. Kolek1.7011711113B. Czerwinski2.00711561WSep 1 · 14:40G. Kesik1.861590B. Czerwinski1.811111113WSep 1 · 13:30B. Czerwinski1.88611911113K. Rudomina1.7911711582
Upcoming Matches
A. Mugowski
Nothing scheduled
B. Czerwinski
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