TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13067436
Played Sep 4Finished
Maciej Kolek
Home
2.63
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
811311116911––
Mateusz Rutkowski
Away
1.44
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:58 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMateusz Rutkowski to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMaciej Kolek above · Mateusz Rutkowski below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 3-11
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 70 set 4, 9-11 — our read held Mateusz Rutkowski at 54.0%
70 points played in total.
H2H Maciej Kolek 20–23 Mateusz Rutkowski Maciej Kolek has won 20 of their 43 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 21:58What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Rutkowski
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
20-23 in 43
Rutkowski
Correct
gap of 3 in 43, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kolek 1626 vs Rutkowski 1604
Kolek
Wrong
both rated, 22 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kolek 60% vs Rutkowski 20%
Kolek
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kolek 80% vs Rutkowski 30%
Kolek
Wrong
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kolek +1 · Rutkowski +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% — Clear lean (leans Rutkowski) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Rutkowski form (20%) is below what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKolek 2.63 / Rutkowski 1.44
Signal prob.34% / 66%
Edge (Rutkowski)+1.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13067436
Kolek2.63
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog39% won 184 of 473
Down 0–1, comes back21% 58 of 281
Down 0–2, comes back2% 3 of 133
Rutkowski1.44
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite69% won 381 of 552
Up 2–0, closes it96% 184 of 191
Up 1–0, closes it89% 306 of 345
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKolek3wins
AwayRutkowski7wins
4 of 10 to a deciderRutkowski leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKolekn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayRutkowski87.5%7 of 8
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kolek2Rutkowski8n = 10Rutkowski took 8 of 10
S2Kolek5Rutkowski5n = 10split evenly
S3Kolek3Rutkowski7n = 10Rutkowski took 7 of 10
S4Kolek5Rutkowski1n = 6Kolek took 5 of 6
S5Kolek1Rutkowski3n = 4Rutkowski took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricKolekRutkowskiK − RBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set28−6of 10Avg pointsper match34.438.3−3.9per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKolekRutkowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime675 / 1361 vs 761 / 135949.6%56%675 / 1361 vs 761 / 1359Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.937.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
RutkowskiKolek 2.63/Rutkowski 1.44
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
65.7%
Rutkowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Rutkowski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJul 2 · 17:00M. Kolek—41271162M. Rutkowski—1110119113
LJul 2 · 16:30M. Kolek—41271162M. Rutkowski—1110119113
LJun 24 · 01:10M. Kolek—511761M. Rutkowski—11811113
LJun 23 · 22:50M. Kolek—8860M. Rutkowski—1111113
LJun 14 · 16:25M. Kolek—9360M. Rutkowski—1111113
WJun 13 · 20:15M. Kolek—1111113M. Rutkowski—9690
LMay 28 · 01:30M. Kolek—96111192M. Rutkowski—111156113
WMay 27 · 23:00M. Kolek—116911113M. Rutkowski—91111682
LApr 30 · 19:00M. Kolek—9980M. Rutkowski—1111113
WApr 22 · 01:30M. Kolek—91111113M. Rutkowski—114471
M. Kolek10
WSep 5 · 01:10M. Rutkowski1.57812111192M. Kolek2.251110139113LSep 5 · 24:45M. Kolek3.0088121162J. Kuzmicz1.361111108113WSep 4 · 23:55M. Kolek2.1011911113T. Filbrandt1.67411791LSep 4 · 22:05M. Kolek2.38791121P. Jendrzejewski1.5311116113LSep 4 · 21:20T. Filbrandt1.6711411113M. Kolek2.10711491LSep 4 · 20:30M. Rutkowski1.57101211113M. Kolek2.251210961WSep 4 · 18:30A. Daniel1.30123561M. Kolek3.40101111113LSep 4 · 17:40K. Kolodziej1.1451111113M. Kolek5.00113921WSep 4 · 16:05P. Jendrzejewski1.6189111172M. Kolek2.20111167113WSep 3 · 23:45J. Glanowski2.2561060M. Kolek1.571112113
M. Rutkowski10
LSep 5 · 01:10M. Rutkowski1.57812111192M. Kolek2.251110139113WSep 5 · 24:20M. Rutkowski1.801413113P. Jendrzejewski1.91121150WSep 4 · 22:50M. Rutkowski1.731111113J. Kuzmicz2.009680WSep 4 · 22:30M. Rutkowski1.731111113T. Filbrandt2.007380LSep 4 · 21:45P. Jendrzejewski1.801111113M. Rutkowski1.919550WSep 4 · 20:30M. Rutkowski1.57101211113M. Kolek2.251210961LSep 4 · 19:15K. Kolodziej1.361311113M. Rutkowski3.0011610WSep 4 · 18:05T. Filbrandt2.101191171M. Rutkowski1.6771113113LSep 4 · 16:30A. Daniel1.501271113113M. Rutkowski2.50141141192WSep 3 · 22:55J. Glanowski3.75121050M. Rutkowski1.251412113
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