TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13073964
Played Sep 4Finished
Maciej Kolek
Home
2.10
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
114911117119––
Tomasz Filbrandt
Away
1.67
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:01 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMaciej Kolek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMaciej Kolek above · Tomasz Filbrandt below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 73 set 4, 11-9 — our read held Maciej Kolek at 54.0%
73 points played in total.
H2H Maciej Kolek 4–8 Tomasz Filbrandt Maciej Kolek has won 4 of their 12 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 22:01What took a side1 for · 4 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Filbrandt
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-8 in 12
Filbrandt
Wrong
gap of 4 in 12, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kolek 1607 vs Filbrandt 1635
Filbrandt
Wrong
both rated, 28 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kolek 20% vs Filbrandt 60%
Filbrandt
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kolek 30% vs Filbrandt 30%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kolek -3 · Filbrandt -2
Kolek
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Filbrandt) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kolek form (20%) is below what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKolek 2.10 / Filbrandt 1.67
Signal prob.43% / 57%
Edge (Filbrandt)+1.2pp
TT Elite Series · #13073964
Kolek2.10
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog39% won 185 of 476
Down 0–1, comes back21% 58 of 283
Down 0–2, comes back2% 3 of 134
Filbrandt1.67
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite63% won 146 of 233
Up 2–0, closes it97% 56 of 58
Up 1–0, closes it79% 97 of 123
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKolek4wins
AwayFilbrandt6wins
2 of 10 to a deciderFilbrandt leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKolek66.7%2 of 3
AwayFilbrandt71.4%5 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kolek3Filbrandt7n = 10Filbrandt took 7 of 10
S2Kolek6Filbrandt4n = 10Kolek took 6 of 10
S3Kolek6Filbrandt4n = 10Kolek took 6 of 10
S4Kolek3Filbrandt6n = 9Filbrandt took 6 of 9
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away550%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricKolekFilbrandtK − FBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match37.237.5−0.3per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKolekFilbrandtBasisWin rate · lifetime678 / 1369 vs 677 / 126649.5%53.5%678 / 1369 vs 677 / 1266Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.939.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
FilbrandtKolek 2.10/Filbrandt 1.67
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
57%
Filbrandt · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Kolek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 4 · 23:55M. Kolek—11911113T. Filbrandt—411791
LSep 4 · 21:20M. Kolek—711491T. Filbrandt—11411113
LAug 14 · 22:05M. Kolek—671191T. Filbrandt—11118113
LJul 5 · 23:35M. Kolek—811981T. Filbrandt—11711113
LJul 5 · 21:20M. Kolek—78111162T. Filbrandt—111166113
WJul 4 · 23:55M. Kolek—121111113T. Filbrandt—145961
WJul 4 · 21:45M. Kolek—611118113T. Filbrandt—11881172
LJul 4 · 18:50M. Kolek—1145111T. Filbrandt—91111133
WJun 28 · 17:45M. Kolek—1111113T. Filbrandt—6880
LApr 22 · 24:40M. Kolek—811571T. Filbrandt—11311113
M. Kolek10
WSep 5 · 01:10M. Rutkowski1.57812111192M. Kolek2.251110139113LSep 5 · 24:45M. Kolek3.0088121162J. Kuzmicz1.361111108113LSep 4 · 22:05M. Kolek2.38791121P. Jendrzejewski1.5311116113LSep 4 · 21:20T. Filbrandt1.6711411113M. Kolek2.10711491LSep 4 · 20:30M. Rutkowski1.57101211113M. Kolek2.251210961WSep 4 · 18:30A. Daniel1.30123561M. Kolek3.40101111113LSep 4 · 17:40K. Kolodziej1.1451111113M. Kolek5.00113921WSep 4 · 16:05P. Jendrzejewski1.6189111172M. Kolek2.20111167113LSep 4 · 24:35M. Kolek2.63831191M. Rutkowski1.4411116113WSep 3 · 23:45J. Glanowski2.2561060M. Kolek1.571112113
T. Filbrandt10
WSep 5 · 23:20A. Wos2.38101115572T. Filbrandt1.531291311113LSep 5 · 22:35P. Jendrzejewski1.731111113T. Filbrandt2.008980WSep 5 · 22:10T. Filbrandt1.67119124113F. Mlynarski2.10411101172WSep 5 · 21:00D. Jadam2.0091490T. Filbrandt1.731116113WSep 5 · 20:30T. Filbrandt1.5711711113A. Wos2.25711691WSep 5 · 18:50T. Filbrandt1.83121177123P. Jendrzejewski1.831071111102LSep 5 · 17:40T. Filbrandt1.83511761F. Mlynarski1.8311911113LSep 5 · 16:05T. Filbrandt2.251111781J. Kuzmicz1.5791311103LSep 5 · 15:00T. Filbrandt1.7361111952D. Jadam2.00113711113WSep 4 · 21:20T. Filbrandt1.6711411113M. Kolek2.10711491
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