TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13078122
Played Sep 4Finished
Dawid Kotwica
Home
1.75
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
911118911118911
Dawid Poloszczanski
Away
1.95
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:48 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeDawid Kotwica to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
98 points played in total.
Set by set
911118911118911
H2H Dawid Kotwica 16–14 Dawid Poloszczanski Dawid Poloszczanski has won 14 of their 30 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 15:48What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.75 (53%)
Kotwica
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
16-14 in 30
Kotwica
Wrong
gap of 2 in 30, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kotwica 1329 vs Poloszczanski 1259
Kotwica
Wrong
both rated, 70 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kotwica 20% vs Poloszczanski 40%
Poloszczanski
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kotwica 40% vs Poloszczanski 20%
Kotwica
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kotwica +1 · Poloszczanski -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kotwica)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Poloszczanski form (40%) is below what odds imply (51%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKotwica 1.75 / Poloszczanski 1.95
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Kotwica)+1.3pp
TT Elite Series · #13078122
Kotwica1.75
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As favourite54% won 70 of 130
Up 2–0, closes it85% 29 of 34
Up 1–0, closes it77% 51 of 66
Poloszczanski1.95
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog40% won 137 of 343
Down 0–1, comes back25% 48 of 195
Down 0–2, comes back7% 7 of 107
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKotwica6wins
AwayPoloszczanski4wins
5 of 10 to a deciderKotwica leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKotwica71.4%5 of 7
AwayPoloszczanski66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kotwica7Poloszczanski3n = 10Kotwica took 7 of 10
S2Kotwica7Poloszczanski3n = 10Kotwica took 7 of 10
S3Kotwica6Poloszczanski4n = 10Kotwica took 6 of 10
S4Kotwica1Poloszczanski7n = 8Poloszczanski took 7 of 8
S5Kotwica3Poloszczanski2n = 5Kotwica took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricKotwicaPoloszczanskiK − PBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match42.840.7+2.1per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKotwicaPoloszczanskiBasisWin rate · lifetime663 / 1599 vs 327 / 82941.5%39.5%663 / 1599 vs 327 / 829Avg sets wonper match1.71.8per matchAvg pointsper match35.438.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KotwicaKotwica 1.75/Poloszczanski 1.95
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Kotwica · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Poloszczanski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 8 · 23:20D. Kotwica—11813101D. Poloszczanski—81115123
LAug 8 · 15:50D. Kotwica—11117972D. Poloszczanski—891111113
WMay 9 · 01:35D. Kotwica—11128113D. Poloszczanski—7101191
WMay 8 · 23:05D. Kotwica—1111113D. Poloszczanski—4980
WApr 25 · 12:35D. Kotwica—911117153D. Poloszczanski—119411132
WMar 7 · 02:00D. Kotwica—114118113D. Poloszczanski—81191172
WMar 6 · 23:35D. Kotwica—1111113D. Poloszczanski—8490
LDec 17 · 06:50D. Kotwica—8811101D. Poloszczanski—11119123
LDec 17 · 04:20D. Kotwica—311125112D. Poloszczanski—1171011133
WDec 12 · 24:45D. Kotwica—11121111113D. Poloszczanski—310131342
D. Kotwica10
WSep 4 · 23:20K. Golaszewski2.15711781D. Kotwica1.6011811113LSep 4 · 22:35K. Sulkowski1.85811611133D. Kotwica1.85113119112WSep 4 · 22:15D. Kotwica1.5711118113D. Poloszczanski2.20771191LSep 4 · 21:05S. Wnek2.1511711113D. Kotwica1.62511731LSep 4 · 20:30D. Kotwica1.904880K. Golaszewski1.801111113LSep 4 · 18:55D. Kotwica1.47119741P. Strus2.5081111113WSep 4 · 17:45D. Kotwica2.20121011113D. Szlubowski1.571012651WSep 4 · 15:00D. Kotwica1.901311113S. Wnek1.7511650LAug 31 · 24:10D. Kotwica1.9587111672A. Mugowski1.751111914113LAug 30 · 23:20D. Kotwica1.9012351182M. Trela1.801011119113
D. Poloszczanski10
LSep 6 · 24:35D. Poloszczanski2.60101380J. Michalczyk1.411215113LSep 5 · 23:45K. Kufel1.601111113D. Poloszczanski2.103260LSep 5 · 22:35D. Poloszczanski2.9541013111B. Sulkowski1.35111211133LSep 5 · 21:55A. Lilien1.221112113D. Poloszczanski3.7041030WSep 5 · 19:40D. Poloszczanski2.40128612113B. Kwodawski1.501011111082LSep 5 · 18:30D. Poloszczanski2.47911110J. Michalczyk1.461113133LSep 5 · 17:20D. Poloszczanski—111251192K. Kufel—1310118113LSep 5 · 16:15B. Sulkowski1.6011116113D. Poloszczanski2.15791181LSep 5 · 15:25D. Poloszczanski3.50119101172A. Lilien1.25911128113LSep 4 · 22:15D. Kotwica1.5711118113D. Poloszczanski2.20771191
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