TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13084515
Played Sep 5Finished
Aleksander Lilien
Home
1.22
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1141210113––––
Dawid Poloszczanski
Away
3.70
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:54 and never touched — 64.7% is still 64.7%
Graded at full timeAleksander Lilien to win
64.7%
64.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
51 points played in total.
Set by set
1141210113––––
H2H Aleksander Lilien 2–2 Dawid Poloszczanski Dead even across their 4 meetings.
Last 4 · 2–2Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:54What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.22 (75%)
Lilien
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-2 in 4
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Lilien 1508 vs Poloszczanski 1262
Lilien
Correct
both rated, 246 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Lilien 60% vs Poloszczanski 20%
Lilien
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Lilien 70% vs Poloszczanski 30%
Lilien
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Lilien +2 · Poloszczanski +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 78% — Strong (leans Lilien) · live re-read · sealed at 65% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lilien form (60%) is below what odds imply (82%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLilien 1.22 / Poloszczanski 3.70
Signal prob.78% / 22%
Edge (Lilien)+2.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13084515
Lilien1.22
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite60% won 249 of 417
Up 2–0, closes it96% 128 of 133
Up 1–0, closes it78% 189 of 244
Poloszczanski3.70
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog39% won 132 of 338
Down 0–1, comes back23% 45 of 194
Down 0–2, comes back6% 6 of 108
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeLilien2wins
AwayPoloszczanski2wins
3 of 4 to a deciderLevel at 2–2, and 3 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Lilien2Poloszczanski2n = 4split evenly
S2Lilien3Poloszczanski1n = 4Lilien took 3 of 4
S3Lilien2Poloszczanski2n = 4split evenly
S4Lilien2Poloszczanski1n = 3Lilien took 2 of 3
S5Lilien1Poloszczanski2n = 3Poloszczanski took 2 of 3
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home125%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home125%
2–3Decider, away250%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricLilienPoloszczanskiL − PBasisWins220in 4 meetingsFirst set220of 4Avg pointsper match44.041.0+3.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLilienPoloszczanskiBasisWin rate · lifetime828 / 1530 vs 333 / 84254.1%39.6%828 / 1530 vs 333 / 842Avg sets wonper match2.11.8per matchAvg pointsper match38.638.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LilienLilien 1.22/Poloszczanski 3.70
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
78%
Lilien · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Lilien won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
WSep 5 · 15:25A. Lilien—911128113D. Poloszczanski—119101172
LMar 14 · 07:15A. Lilien—51181172D. Poloszczanski—116116113
LMar 14 · 04:45A. Lilien—126111192D. Poloszczanski—1011139113
WApr 12 · 14:20A. Lilien—1111123D. Poloszczanski—16100
A. Lilien10
LSep 7 · 24:10A. Myszewski2.401211113A. Lilien1.5110490LSep 6 · 23:45A. Lilien1.66118991A. Linek2.1071111113LSep 6 · 22:55A. Lilien1.66511961B. Sulkowski2.0511711113WSep 6 · 21:05A. Lilien1.471111113M. Trela2.453880WSep 6 · 20:05A. Wos1.63115111082A. Lilien2.10911712113LSep 6 · 19:20A. Myszewski2.301111113A. Lilien1.528560LSep 6 · 17:20J. Michalczyk1.90111275113A. Lilien1.80710111182WSep 6 · 16:35B. Sulkowski2.258115101A. Lilien1.5511811123LSep 6 · 15:00M. Trela3.051111113A. Lilien1.319890LSep 6 · 24:10A. Lilien1.83713291K. Kufel1.83111111113
D. Poloszczanski10
LSep 6 · 24:35D. Poloszczanski2.60101380J. Michalczyk1.411215113LSep 5 · 23:45K. Kufel1.601111113D. Poloszczanski2.103260LSep 5 · 22:35D. Poloszczanski2.9541013111B. Sulkowski1.35111211133WSep 5 · 19:40D. Poloszczanski2.40128612113B. Kwodawski1.501011111082LSep 5 · 18:30D. Poloszczanski2.47911110J. Michalczyk1.461113133LSep 5 · 17:20D. Poloszczanski—111251192K. Kufel—1310118113LSep 5 · 16:15B. Sulkowski1.6011116113D. Poloszczanski2.15791181LSep 5 · 15:25D. Poloszczanski3.50119101172A. Lilien1.25911128113LSep 5 · 24:35K. Sulkowski1.8511118113D. Poloszczanski1.85681171WSep 4 · 22:55S. Wnek1.907230D. Poloszczanski1.771111113
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