TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13083477
Played Sep 5Finished
Dawid Poloszczanski
Home
2.47
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 4
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
91111131113––––
Jakub Michalczyk
Away
1.46
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 16:30 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJakub Michalczyk to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
68 points played in total.
Set by set
91111131113––––
H2H Dawid Poloszczanski 1–3 Jakub Michalczyk Dawid Poloszczanski has won 1 of their 4 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 16:30What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.46 (63%)
Michalczyk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-3 in 4
Michalczyk
Correct
gap of 2 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Poloszczanski 1258 vs Michalczyk 1365
Michalczyk
Correct
both rated, 107 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Poloszczanski 20% vs Michalczyk 40%
Michalczyk
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Poloszczanski 40% vs Michalczyk 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Poloszczanski -4 · Michalczyk -2
Poloszczanski
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% — Clear lean (leans Michalczyk) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Michalczyk form (40%) is below what odds imply (68%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPoloszczanski 2.47 / Michalczyk 1.46
Signal prob.34% / 66%
Edge (Michalczyk)+2.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13083477
Poloszczanski2.47
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog39% won 132 of 338
Down 0–1, comes back23% 45 of 194
Down 0–2, comes back6% 6 of 108
Michalczyk1.46
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite60% won 21 of 35
Up 2–0, closes it92% 11 of 12
Up 1–0, closes it84% 16 of 19
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomePoloszczanski1wins
AwayMichalczyk3wins
3 of 4 to a deciderMichalczyk leads 3–1, and 3 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Poloszczanski2Michalczyk2n = 4split evenly
S2Poloszczanski1Michalczyk3n = 4Michalczyk took 3 of 4
S3Poloszczanski2Michalczyk2n = 4split evenly
S4Poloszczanski2Michalczyk2n = 4split evenly
S5Poloszczanski1Michalczyk2n = 3Michalczyk took 2 of 3
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home125%
2–3Decider, away250%
1–3Four sets, away125%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricPoloszczanskiMichalczykP − MBasisWins13−2in 4 meetingsFirst set220of 4Avg pointsper match44.549.8−5.3per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPoloszczanskiMichalczykBasisWin rate · lifetime332 / 840 vs 176 / 33639.5%52.4%332 / 840 vs 176 / 336Avg sets wonper match1.82.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.240.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MichalczykPoloszczanski 2.47/Michalczyk 1.46
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
65.6%
Michalczyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Michalczyk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
LAug 2 · 12:40D. Poloszczanski—991281J. Michalczyk—111110113
WJan 31 · 10:45D. Poloszczanski—115516113J. Michalczyk—811111462
LJan 24 · 13:10D. Poloszczanski—131271162J. Michalczyk—1114117113
LAug 9 · 10:55D. Poloszczanski—81211482J. Michalczyk—1110911113
D. Poloszczanski10
LSep 6 · 24:35D. Poloszczanski2.60101380J. Michalczyk1.411215113LSep 5 · 23:45K. Kufel1.601111113D. Poloszczanski2.103260LSep 5 · 22:35D. Poloszczanski2.9541013111B. Sulkowski1.35111211133LSep 5 · 21:55A. Lilien1.221112113D. Poloszczanski3.7041030WSep 5 · 19:40D. Poloszczanski2.40128612113B. Kwodawski1.501011111082LSep 5 · 17:20D. Poloszczanski—111251192K. Kufel—1310118113LSep 5 · 16:15B. Sulkowski1.6011116113D. Poloszczanski2.15791181LSep 5 · 15:25D. Poloszczanski3.50119101172A. Lilien1.25911128113LSep 5 · 24:35K. Sulkowski1.8511118113D. Poloszczanski1.85681171WSep 4 · 22:55S. Wnek1.907230D. Poloszczanski1.771111113
J. Michalczyk10
LSep 6 · 19:40J. Michalczyk2.21811981B. Sulkowski1.5711211113WSep 6 · 18:30J. Michalczyk2.50411117113A. Wos1.4611681172WSep 6 · 17:20J. Michalczyk1.90111275113A. Lilien1.80710111182LSep 6 · 16:15M. Trela2.604101111113J. Michalczyk1.4211127772WSep 6 · 15:25J. Michalczyk1.541111108113A. Myszewski2.2569121192WSep 6 · 14:35J. Michalczyk1.6311711113T. Pisarczyk2.10611871WSep 6 · 13:00J. Michalczyk1.791315113M. Zagajewski1.88111330WSep 6 · 11:45J. Michalczyk1.77111120113P. Staniszewski1.90972281LSep 6 · 10:05J. Michalczyk1.9589111162I. Dabrowski1.74111174113WSep 6 · 24:35D. Poloszczanski2.60101380J. Michalczyk1.411215113
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