TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13078107
Played Sep 5Finished
Dawid Poloszczanski
Home
3.50
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1199111012118711
Aleksander Lilien
Away
1.25
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:49 and never touched — 62.7% is still 62.7%
Graded at full timeAleksander Lilien to win
62.7%
62.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
99 points played in total.
Set by set
1199111012118711
H2H Dawid Poloszczanski 2–1 Aleksander Lilien Aleksander Lilien has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 15:49What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.25 (74%)
Lilien
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-1 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Poloszczanski 1278 vs Lilien 1507
Lilien
Correct
both rated, 230 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Poloszczanski 40% vs Lilien 80%
Lilien
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Poloszczanski 50% vs Lilien 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Poloszczanski -1 · Lilien +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 77% — Strong (leans Lilien) · live re-read · sealed at 63% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Poloszczanski form (40%) outperforms what odds imply (29%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPoloszczanski 3.50 / Lilien 1.25
Signal prob.24% / 77%
Edge (Lilien)+2.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13078107
Poloszczanski3.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog39% won 132 of 338
Down 0–1, comes back23% 45 of 194
Down 0–2, comes back6% 6 of 108
Lilien1.25
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite60% won 249 of 417
Up 2–0, closes it96% 128 of 133
Up 1–0, closes it78% 189 of 244
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomePoloszczanski2wins
AwayLilien1wins
2 of 3 to a deciderPoloszczanski leads 2–1, and 2 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Poloszczanski1Lilien2n = 3Lilien took 2 of 3
S2Poloszczanski1Lilien2n = 3Lilien took 2 of 3
S3Poloszczanski2Lilien1n = 3Poloszczanski took 2 of 3
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home267%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away133%
These 3 meetings
MetricPoloszczanskiLilienP − LBasisWins21+1in 3 meetingsFirst set12−1of 3Avg pointsper match38.741.7−3.0per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPoloszczanskiLilienBasisWin rate · lifetime332 / 837 vs 824 / 152439.7%54.1%332 / 837 vs 824 / 1524Avg sets wonper match1.82.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.238.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LilienPoloszczanski 3.50/Lilien 1.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
76.5%
Lilien · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Lilien won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
WMar 14 · 07:15D. Poloszczanski—116116113A. Lilien—51181172
WMar 14 · 04:45D. Poloszczanski—1011139113A. Lilien—126111192
LApr 12 · 14:20D. Poloszczanski—16100A. Lilien—1111123
D. Poloszczanski10
LSep 6 · 24:35D. Poloszczanski2.60101380J. Michalczyk1.411215113LSep 5 · 23:45K. Kufel1.601111113D. Poloszczanski2.103260LSep 5 · 22:35D. Poloszczanski2.9541013111B. Sulkowski1.35111211133LSep 5 · 21:55A. Lilien1.221112113D. Poloszczanski3.7041030WSep 5 · 19:40D. Poloszczanski2.40128612113B. Kwodawski1.501011111082LSep 5 · 18:30D. Poloszczanski2.47911110J. Michalczyk1.461113133LSep 5 · 17:20D. Poloszczanski—111251192K. Kufel—1310118113LSep 5 · 16:15B. Sulkowski1.6011116113D. Poloszczanski2.15791181LSep 5 · 24:35K. Sulkowski1.8511118113D. Poloszczanski1.85681171WSep 4 · 22:55S. Wnek1.907230D. Poloszczanski1.771111113
A. Lilien10
LSep 7 · 24:10A. Myszewski2.401211113A. Lilien1.5110490LSep 6 · 23:45A. Lilien1.66118991A. Linek2.1071111113LSep 6 · 22:55A. Lilien1.66511961B. Sulkowski2.0511711113WSep 6 · 21:05A. Lilien1.471111113M. Trela2.453880WSep 6 · 20:05A. Wos1.63115111082A. Lilien2.10911712113LSep 6 · 19:20A. Myszewski2.301111113A. Lilien1.528560LSep 6 · 17:20J. Michalczyk1.90111275113A. Lilien1.80710111182WSep 6 · 16:35B. Sulkowski2.258115101A. Lilien1.5511811123LSep 6 · 15:00M. Trela3.051111113A. Lilien1.319890WSep 5 · 21:55A. Lilien1.221112113D. Poloszczanski3.7041030
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