TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #12444178
Played Aug 16Finished
Kamil Kostyk
Home
1.57
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
116118711119––
Aleksander Lilien
Away
2.20
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:22 and never touched — 58.3% is still 58.3%
Graded at full timeAleksander Lilien to win
58.3%
58.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
74 points played in total.
Set by set
116118711119––
H2H Kamil Kostyk 3–4 Aleksander Lilien Kamil Kostyk has won 3 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 15:22What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (58%)
Kostyk
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-4 in 7
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kostyk 1464 vs Lilien 1451
Kostyk
Correct
both rated, 13 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kostyk 60% vs Lilien 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kostyk 40% vs Lilien 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kostyk +2 · Lilien +3
Lilien
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Kostyk) · live re-read · sealed at 42% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lilien form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKostyk 1.57 / Lilien 2.20
Signal prob.57% / 43%
Edge (Kostyk)-1.0pp
TT Elite Series · #12444178
Kostyk1.57
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite63% won 51 of 81
Up 2–0, closes it96% 24 of 25
Up 1–0, closes it73% 38 of 52
Lilien2.20
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog34% won 73 of 212
Down 0–1, comes back18% 22 of 121
Down 0–2, comes back4% 3 of 74
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeKostyk3wins
AwayLilien4wins
5 of 7 to a deciderLilien leads 4–3, and 5 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKostyk33.3%1 of 3
AwayLilien50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kostyk3Lilien4n = 7Lilien took 4 of 7
S2Kostyk5Lilien2n = 7Kostyk took 5 of 7
S3Kostyk4Lilien3n = 7Kostyk took 4 of 7
S4Kostyk1Lilien5n = 6Lilien took 5 of 6
S5Kostyk2Lilien3n = 5Lilien took 3 of 5
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home114%
3–2Decider, home229%
2–3Decider, away343%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away114%
These 7 meetings
MetricKostykLilienK − LBasisWins34−1in 7 meetingsFirst set34−1of 7Avg pointsper match42.944.3−1.4per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKostykLilienBasisWin rate · lifetime212 / 412 vs 841 / 156551.5%53.7%212 / 412 vs 841 / 1565Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.038.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KostykKostyk 1.57/Lilien 2.20
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
57.4%
Kostyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Kostyk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
LMay 19 · 08:35K. Kostyk—12115982A. Lilien—1031111113
LMar 30 · 08:35K. Kostyk—812113102A. Lilien—1110811123
LDec 21 · 21:40K. Kostyk—8890A. Lilien—1111113
WSep 26 · 13:55K. Kostyk—12118113A. Lilien—1081141
WSep 26 · 08:35K. Kostyk—911115113A. Lilien—11961172
WSep 25 · 09:00K. Kostyk—917119113A. Lilien—111571172
LSep 25 · 05:15K. Kostyk—122114112A. Lilien—1011611133
K. Kostyk10
LSep 7 · 16:30K. Glazowski1.2811911113K. Kostyk3.50611541WSep 7 · 15:00K. Staszczyk1.6154110K. Kostyk2.201111133WAug 16 · 23:20B. Mleczko1.85112651K. Kostyk1.8591111113LAug 16 · 22:35D. Solilo2.85131198113K. Kostyk1.36119111192LAug 16 · 22:15K. Kostyk1.678811121A. Lilien2.0311118143WAug 16 · 21:05D. Kotwica2.4011155732K. Kostyk1.518131111113LAug 16 · 20:30K. Kostyk1.6614117992B. Mleczko2.051271111113WAug 16 · 18:55K. Kostyk1.301011158153J. Michalczyk3.251221311132WAug 16 · 16:15K. Kostyk2.001111113D. Solilo1.716780WAug 16 · 15:00K. Kostyk1.2511512113D. Kotwica3.508111051
A. Lilien10
LSep 7 · 24:10A. Myszewski2.401211113A. Lilien1.5110490LSep 6 · 23:45A. Lilien1.66118991A. Linek2.1071111113LSep 6 · 22:55A. Lilien1.66511961B. Sulkowski2.0511711113WSep 6 · 21:05A. Lilien1.471111113M. Trela2.453880WSep 6 · 20:05A. Wos1.63115111082A. Lilien2.10911712113LSep 6 · 19:20A. Myszewski2.301111113A. Lilien1.528560LSep 6 · 17:20J. Michalczyk1.90111275113A. Lilien1.80710111182WSep 6 · 16:35B. Sulkowski2.258115101A. Lilien1.5511811123LSep 6 · 15:00M. Trela3.051111113A. Lilien1.319890WAug 16 · 22:15K. Kostyk1.678811121A. Lilien2.0311118143
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A. Lilien
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