TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #12445282
Played Aug 16Finished
Kamil Kostyk
Home
1.67
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
8118111181214––
Aleksander Lilien
Away
2.03
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:03 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeKamil Kostyk to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
83 points played in total.
Set by set
8118111181214––
H2H Kamil Kostyk 4–4 Aleksander Lilien Dead even across their 8 meetings.
Last 8 · 4–4Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:03What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (55%)
Kostyk
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-4 in 8
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kostyk 1476 vs Lilien 1448
Kostyk
Wrong
both rated, 28 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kostyk 80% vs Lilien 60%
Kostyk
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kostyk 60% vs Lilien 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kostyk +1 · Lilien -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Kostyk) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Lilien form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (49%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKostyk 1.67 / Lilien 2.03
Signal prob.55% / 45%
Edge (Kostyk)+0.0pp
TT Elite Series · #12445282
Kostyk1.67
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite63% won 51 of 81
Up 2–0, closes it96% 24 of 25
Up 1–0, closes it73% 38 of 52
Lilien2.03
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog34% won 73 of 212
Down 0–1, comes back18% 22 of 121
Down 0–2, comes back4% 3 of 74
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeKostyk4wins
AwayLilien4wins
5 of 8 to a deciderLevel at 4–4, and 5 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKostyk50%2 of 4
AwayLilien50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kostyk4Lilien4n = 8split evenly
S2Kostyk6Lilien2n = 8Kostyk took 6 of 8
S3Kostyk4Lilien4n = 8split evenly
S4Kostyk2Lilien5n = 7Lilien took 5 of 7
S5Kostyk2Lilien3n = 5Lilien took 3 of 5
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home225%
3–2Decider, home225%
2–3Decider, away338%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away113%
These 8 meetings
MetricKostykLilienK − LBasisWins440in 8 meetingsFirst set440of 8Avg pointsper match42.543.0−0.5per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKostykLilienBasisWin rate · lifetime215 / 416 vs 843 / 156951.7%53.7%215 / 416 vs 843 / 1569Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.138.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KostykKostyk 1.67/Lilien 2.03
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.9%
Kostyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Lilien won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
WAug 16 · 17:45K. Kostyk—11117113A. Lilien—681191
LMay 19 · 08:35K. Kostyk—12115982A. Lilien—1031111113
LMar 30 · 08:35K. Kostyk—812113102A. Lilien—1110811123
LDec 21 · 21:40K. Kostyk—8890A. Lilien—1111113
WSep 26 · 13:55K. Kostyk—12118113A. Lilien—1081141
WSep 26 · 08:35K. Kostyk—911115113A. Lilien—11961172
WSep 25 · 09:00K. Kostyk—917119113A. Lilien—111571172
LSep 25 · 05:15K. Kostyk—122114112A. Lilien—1011611133
K. Kostyk10
LSep 7 · 16:30K. Glazowski1.2811911113K. Kostyk3.50611541WSep 7 · 15:00K. Staszczyk1.6154110K. Kostyk2.201111133WAug 16 · 23:20B. Mleczko1.85112651K. Kostyk1.8591111113LAug 16 · 22:35D. Solilo2.85131198113K. Kostyk1.36119111192WAug 16 · 21:05D. Kotwica2.4011155732K. Kostyk1.518131111113LAug 16 · 20:30K. Kostyk1.6614117992B. Mleczko2.051271111113WAug 16 · 18:55K. Kostyk1.301011158153J. Michalczyk3.251221311132WAug 16 · 17:45K. Kostyk1.5711117113A. Lilien2.20681191WAug 16 · 16:15K. Kostyk2.001111113D. Solilo1.716780WAug 16 · 15:00K. Kostyk1.2511512113D. Kotwica3.508111051
A. Lilien10
LSep 7 · 24:10A. Myszewski2.401211113A. Lilien1.5110490LSep 6 · 23:45A. Lilien1.66118991A. Linek2.1071111113LSep 6 · 22:55A. Lilien1.66511961B. Sulkowski2.0511711113WSep 6 · 21:05A. Lilien1.471111113M. Trela2.453880WSep 6 · 20:05A. Wos1.63115111082A. Lilien2.10911712113LSep 6 · 19:20A. Myszewski2.301111113A. Lilien1.528560LSep 6 · 17:20J. Michalczyk1.90111275113A. Lilien1.80710111182WSep 6 · 16:35B. Sulkowski2.258115101A. Lilien1.5511811123LSep 6 · 15:00M. Trela3.051111113A. Lilien1.319890LAug 16 · 17:45K. Kostyk1.5711117113A. Lilien2.20681191
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A. Lilien
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