TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13091630
Played Sep 7Finished
Konrad Staszczyk
Home
1.62
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
5114111113––––
Kamil Kostyk
Away
2.20
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:38 and never touched — 54.3% is still 54.3%
Graded at full timeKamil Kostyk to win
54.3%
54.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingKonrad Staszczyk above · Kamil Kostyk below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 11-13
Point 55 set 3, 11-13 — our read held Kamil Kostyk at 54.3%
55 points played in total.
H2H Konrad Staszczyk 6–7 Kamil Kostyk Konrad Staszczyk has won 6 of their 13 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 09:38What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Staszczyk
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-7 in 13
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Staszczyk 1613 vs Kostyk 1463
Staszczyk
Wrong
both rated, 150 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Staszczyk 40% vs Kostyk 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Staszczyk 20% vs Kostyk 60%
Kostyk
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Staszczyk +1 · Kostyk +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Staszczyk) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Staszczyk form (40%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStaszczyk 1.61 / Kostyk 2.20
Signal prob.59% / 42%
Edge (Staszczyk)+0.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13091630
Staszczyk1.61
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite64% won 144 of 226
Up 2–0, closes it86% 57 of 66
Up 1–0, closes it82% 103 of 125
Kostyk2.20
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog37% won 45 of 122
Down 0–1, comes back22% 16 of 72
Down 0–2, comes back8% 3 of 39
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeStaszczyk4wins
AwayKostyk6wins
5 of 10 to a deciderKostyk leads 6–4, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStaszczyk66.7%2 of 3
AwayKostyk71.4%5 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Staszczyk3Kostyk7n = 10Kostyk took 7 of 10
S2Staszczyk8Kostyk2n = 10Staszczyk took 8 of 10
S3Staszczyk8Kostyk2n = 10Staszczyk took 8 of 10
S4Staszczyk0Kostyk8n = 8Kostyk took 8 of 8
S5Staszczyk2Kostyk3n = 5Kostyk took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricStaszczykKostykS − KBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match38.640.6−2.0per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStaszczykKostykBasisWin rate · lifetime174 / 304 vs 216 / 41957.2%51.6%174 / 304 vs 216 / 419Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.238.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StaszczykStaszczyk 1.61/Kostyk 2.20
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
58.5%
Staszczyk · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Kostyk won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJul 12 · 16:55K. Staszczyk—1111113K. Kostyk—7960
LJul 12 · 24:10K. Staszczyk—111138112K. Kostyk—451111133
WJul 11 · 21:45K. Staszczyk—1111113K. Kostyk—7790
LJun 14 · 10:05K. Staszczyk—691121K. Kostyk—11119113
LJun 14 · 06:15K. Staszczyk—911117102K. Kostyk—119811123
LJun 14 · 03:45K. Staszczyk—41211832K. Kostyk—1110711113
WJun 13 · 09:00K. Staszczyk—1011114113K. Kostyk—12681182
LJun 13 · 06:15K. Staszczyk—6111071K. Kostyk—11912113
LJun 13 · 03:45K. Staszczyk—641391K. Kostyk—111111113
WMay 30 · 10:30K. Staszczyk—911117113K. Kostyk—11651192
K. Staszczyk10
WAug 19 · 24:35D. Solilo3.00106100K. Staszczyk1.361211123LAug 18 · 22:55M. Rutkowski1.9111117113K. Staszczyk1.80851151WAug 18 · 22:10J. Kuzmicz1.441151091K. Staszczyk2.6351112113LAug 18 · 21:25M. Olbrycht2.331311113K. Staszczyk1.5111880LAug 18 · 20:05K. Staszczyk2.20511471K. Glazowski1.6111911113LAug 18 · 18:30K. Kolodziej1.251111113K. Staszczyk3.752750LAug 18 · 17:40J. Kuzmicz1.4411118113K. Staszczyk2.63821131LAug 18 · 16:55K. Staszczyk2.0091151152M. Olbrycht1.73119119113LAug 18 · 15:45K. Staszczyk1.83811661A. Spychala1.8311511113LAug 18 · 24:35K. Rudomina3.00811911123K. Staszczyk1.36117117102
K. Kostyk10
WAug 16 · 23:20B. Mleczko1.85112651K. Kostyk1.8591111113LAug 16 · 22:35D. Solilo2.85131198113K. Kostyk1.36119111192LAug 16 · 22:15K. Kostyk1.678811121A. Lilien2.0311118143WAug 16 · 21:05D. Kotwica2.4011155732K. Kostyk1.518131111113LAug 16 · 20:30K. Kostyk1.6614117992B. Mleczko2.051271111113WAug 16 · 18:55K. Kostyk1.301011158153J. Michalczyk3.251221311132WAug 16 · 17:45K. Kostyk1.5711117113A. Lilien2.20681191WAug 16 · 16:15K. Kostyk2.001111113D. Solilo1.716780WAug 16 · 15:00K. Kostyk1.2511512113D. Kotwica3.508111051LAug 15 · 23:20K. Wisniewski1.57513119113K. Kostyk2.25111181192
Upcoming Matches
K. Staszczyk2 of 10 neutral
Sep 7 · 17:40K. Staszczyk1.83K. Kapik1.83—Sep 7 · 18:50K. Staszczyk2.25K. Glazowski1.57—Sep 7 · 20:30K. Staszczyk1.73M. Rutkowski2.00—Sep 7 · 21:00K. Staszczyk1.61K. Kostyk2.20—Sep 7 · 22:10K. Staszczyk1.91K. Kapik1.80—Sep 7 · 22:35K. Staszczyk1.28B. Sulkowski3.50—Sep 7 · 23:20K. Staszczyk1.73M. Rutkowski2.00—Sep 8 · 21:50K. Staszczyk—K. Kapik——Sep 8 · 22:35K. Staszczyk—K. Kostyk——Sep 8 · 23:45K. Staszczyk—M. Rutkowski——
K. Kostyk2 of 10 neutral
Sep 7 · 16:30K. Kostyk3.50K. Glazowski1.28—Sep 7 · 17:20K. Kostyk4.50K. Strowski1.17—Sep 7 · 19:15K. Kostyk2.75M. Rutkowski1.40—Sep 7 · 20:05K. Kostyk2.25K. Kapik1.57—Sep 7 · 21:00K. Kostyk2.20K. Staszczyk1.61—Sep 7 · 22:55K. Kostyk2.25K. Kapik1.57—Sep 7 · 23:45K. Kostyk1.44B. Sulkowski2.63—Sep 8 · 24:10K. Kostyk2.75M. Rutkowski1.40—Sep 8 · 15:00K. Kostyk—M. Rutkowski——Sep 8 · 16:05K. Kostyk—A. Daniel——
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