TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #12437081
Played Aug 15Finished
Karol Wisniewski
Home
1.57
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
5111311118911119
Kamil Kostyk
Away
2.25
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:51 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeKarol Wisniewski to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingKarol Wisniewski above · Kamil Kostyk below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 13-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 99 set 5, 11-9 — our read held Karol Wisniewski at 54.0%
99 points played in total.
H2H Karol Wisniewski 1–2 Kamil Kostyk Karol Wisniewski has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 22:51What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Wisniewski
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-2 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Wisniewski 1625 vs Kostyk 1447
Wisniewski
Correct
both rated, 178 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Wisniewski 60% vs Kostyk 20%
Wisniewski
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Wisniewski 60% vs Kostyk 20%
Wisniewski
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Wisniewski +3 · Kostyk -1
Wisniewski
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% — Clear lean (leans Wisniewski) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kostyk form (20%) is below what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsWisniewski 1.57 / Kostyk 2.25
Signal prob.66% / 34%
Edge (Wisniewski)+7.0pp
TT Elite Series · #12437081
Wisniewski1.57
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite58% won 132 of 228
Up 2–0, closes it89% 59 of 66
Up 1–0, closes it79% 96 of 122
Kostyk2.25
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog39% won 48 of 124
Down 0–1, comes back24% 17 of 72
Down 0–2, comes back10% 4 of 39
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeWisniewski1wins
AwayKostyk2wins
Kostyk leads 2–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Wisniewski1Kostyk2n = 3Kostyk took 2 of 3
S2Wisniewski0Kostyk3n = 3Kostyk took 3 of 3
S3Wisniewski1Kostyk2n = 3Kostyk took 2 of 3
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home133%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away267%
These 3 meetings
MetricWisniewskiKostykW − KBasisWins12−1in 3 meetingsFirst set12−1of 3Avg pointsper match29.333.7−4.4per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricWisniewskiKostykBasisWin rate · lifetime1038 / 2268 vs 210 / 40945.8%51.3%1038 / 2268 vs 210 / 409Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.538.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
WisniewskiWisniewski 1.57/Kostyk 2.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
65.9%
Wisniewski · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Wisniewski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
LJul 27 · 10:30K. Wisniewski—6870K. Kostyk—1111113
WApr 7 · 03:30K. Wisniewski—11611113K. Kostyk—911851
LDec 21 · 07:35K. Wisniewski—11890K. Kostyk—1311113
K. Wisniewski10
WSep 7 · 14:15K. Wisniewski2.80111136113K. Wloczko1.3798111162LSep 7 · 12:35M. Sklensky1.35711911113K. Wisniewski2.9511211432LSep 7 · 11:45K. Strowski1.471113123K. Wisniewski2.45911100LSep 7 · 10:55K. Wisniewski2.759811101K. Glazowski1.4011118123WSep 7 · 09:45K. Wisniewski2.331111313123G. Poliniewicz1.51891115102LSep 7 · 08:30M. Sklensky1.3711118113K. Wisniewski2.80761171LSep 7 · 07:15K. Wisniewski1.6881191132D. Solilo2.05113115113LSep 7 · 06:00A. Sobel2.60121111113K. Wisniewski1.42149591LSep 7 · 04:50M. Minda2.80101113153K. Wisniewski1.3712811131WSep 7 · 03:20J. Zochniak2.95881141K. Wisniewski1.3311116113
K. Kostyk10
LSep 7 · 16:30K. Glazowski1.2811911113K. Kostyk3.50611541WSep 7 · 15:00K. Staszczyk1.6154110K. Kostyk2.201111133WAug 16 · 23:20B. Mleczko1.85112651K. Kostyk1.8591111113LAug 16 · 22:35D. Solilo2.85131198113K. Kostyk1.36119111192LAug 16 · 22:15K. Kostyk1.678811121A. Lilien2.0311118143WAug 16 · 21:05D. Kotwica2.4011155732K. Kostyk1.518131111113LAug 16 · 20:30K. Kostyk1.6614117992B. Mleczko2.051271111113WAug 16 · 18:55K. Kostyk1.301011158153J. Michalczyk3.251221311132WAug 16 · 17:45K. Kostyk1.5711117113A. Lilien2.20681191WAug 16 · 16:15K. Kostyk2.001111113D. Solilo1.716780
Upcoming Matches
K. Wisniewski
K. Kostyk2 of 10 neutral
Sep 7 · 17:20K. Kostyk4.50K. Strowski1.17—Sep 7 · 19:15K. Kostyk2.75M. Rutkowski1.40—Sep 7 · 20:05K. Kostyk2.25K. Kapik1.57—Sep 7 · 21:00K. Kostyk2.20K. Staszczyk1.61—Sep 7 · 22:55K. Kostyk2.25K. Kapik1.57—Sep 7 · 23:45K. Kostyk1.44B. Sulkowski2.63—Sep 8 · 24:10K. Kostyk2.75M. Rutkowski1.40—Sep 8 · 15:00K. Kostyk—M. Rutkowski——Sep 8 · 16:05K. Kostyk—A. Daniel——Sep 8 · 17:40K. Kostyk—L. Pietraszko——
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.