TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #12449862
Played Aug 18Finished
Krystian Kolodziej
Home
1.25
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
112117115––––
Konrad Staszczyk
Away
3.75
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:41 and never touched — 54.4% is still 54.4%
Graded at full timeKrystian Kolodziej to win
54.4%
54.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingKrystian Kolodziej above · Konrad Staszczyk below
Set 1 · 11-2
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-5
Point 47 set 3, 11-5 — our read held Krystian Kolodziej at 54.4%
47 points played in total.
H2H Krystian Kolodziej 6–2 Konrad Staszczyk Konrad Staszczyk has won 2 of their 8 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 12:41What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.25 (75%)
Kolodziej
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-2 in 8
Kolodziej
Correct
gap of 4 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kolodziej 1879 vs Staszczyk 1621
Kolodziej
Correct
both rated, 258 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kolodziej 80% vs Staszczyk 0%
Kolodziej
Correct
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kolodziej 60% vs Staszczyk 10%
Kolodziej
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kolodziej +3 · Staszczyk -5
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 86% — Strong (leans Kolodziej) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Staszczyk form (0%) is below what odds imply (27%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKolodziej 1.25 / Staszczyk 3.75
Signal prob.86% / 14%
Edge (Kolodziej)+11.0pp
TT Elite Series · #12449862
Kolodziej1.25
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite76% won 539 of 709
Up 2–0, closes it98% 338 of 344
Up 1–0, closes it88% 446 of 508
Staszczyk3.75
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 5
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog39% won 27 of 69
Down 0–1, comes back17% 7 of 41
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 27
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeKolodziej6wins
AwayStaszczyk2wins
2 of 8 to a deciderKolodziej leads 6–2, and 2 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKolodziej100%6 of 6
AwayStaszczykn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kolodziej6Staszczyk2n = 8Kolodziej took 6 of 8
S2Kolodziej5Staszczyk3n = 8Kolodziej took 5 of 8
S3Kolodziej6Staszczyk2n = 8Kolodziej took 6 of 8
S4Kolodziej2Staszczyk1n = 3Kolodziej took 2 of 3
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home450%
3–1Four sets, home113%
3–2Decider, home113%
2–3Decider, away113%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away113%
These 8 meetings
MetricKolodziejStaszczykK − SBasisWins62+4in 8 meetingsFirst set62+4of 8Avg pointsper match39.029.2+9.8per matchSweeps41+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKolodziejStaszczykBasisWin rate · lifetime1319 / 1947 vs 172 / 29867.8%57.7%1319 / 1947 vs 172 / 298Avg sets wonper match2.42.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.538.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KolodziejKolodziej 1.25/Staszczyk 3.75
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
86%
Kolodziej · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Kolodziej won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
WJun 7 · 02:00K. Kolodziej—11917123K. Staszczyk—51115101
LJun 6 · 23:30K. Kolodziej—109111192K. Staszczyk—121159113
WJun 6 · 21:35K. Kolodziej—1111113K. Staszczyk—3360
WMay 16 · 17:05K. Kolodziej—111186113K. Staszczyk—37111162
WMay 15 · 18:35K. Kolodziej—1211123K. Staszczyk—103100
WMay 11 · 02:00K. Kolodziej—1111113K. Staszczyk—3590
LMay 10 · 23:30K. Kolodziej—131180K. Staszczyk—1513113
WMay 10 · 21:35K. Kolodziej—1111113K. Staszczyk—5380
K. Kolodziej10
LSep 7 · 12:30S. Kolasa1.734111110113K. Kolodziej2.0011251282WSep 7 · 11:40P. David1.3061381162K. Kolodziej3.401111115113LSep 7 · 10:50K. Kolodziej3.259780J. Kosowski1.331111113LSep 7 · 09:40K. Kolodziej4.5011781192J. Folwarski1.17511117113LSep 4 · 21:00A. Daniel2.10581211113K. Kolodziej1.67111110592WSep 4 · 20:05P. Jendrzejewski2.63471291K. Kolodziej1.44111110113WSep 4 · 19:15K. Kolodziej1.361311113M. Rutkowski3.0011610WSep 4 · 17:40K. Kolodziej1.1451111113M. Kolek5.00113921WSep 4 · 16:55T. Filbrandt2.63116110K. Kolodziej1.441311133WSep 4 · 15:45A. Grela1.61116100K. Kolodziej2.201311123
K. Staszczyk10
LSep 7 · 16:05K. Staszczyk3.50561131K. Strowski1.2811114113LSep 7 · 15:00K. Staszczyk1.6154110K. Kostyk2.201111133WAug 19 · 24:35D. Solilo3.00106100K. Staszczyk1.361211123LAug 18 · 22:55M. Rutkowski1.9111117113K. Staszczyk1.80851151WAug 18 · 22:10J. Kuzmicz1.441151091K. Staszczyk2.6351112113LAug 18 · 21:25M. Olbrycht2.331311113K. Staszczyk1.5111880LAug 18 · 20:05K. Staszczyk2.20511471K. Glazowski1.6111911113LAug 18 · 17:40J. Kuzmicz1.4411118113K. Staszczyk2.63821131LAug 18 · 16:55K. Staszczyk2.0091151152M. Olbrycht1.73119119113LAug 18 · 15:45K. Staszczyk1.83811661A. Spychala1.8311511113
Upcoming Matches
K. Kolodziej
K. Staszczyk2 of 10 neutral
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