TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13075444
Played Sep 4Finished
Artur Grela
Home
1.62
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
11136111012––––
Krystian Kolodziej
Away
2.20
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 03:48 and never touched — 70.6% is still 70.6%
Graded at full timeArtur Grela to win
70.6%
70.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingArtur Grela above · Krystian Kolodziej below
Set 1 · 11-13
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 10-12
Point 63 set 3, 10-12 — our read held Artur Grela at 70.6%
63 points played in total.
H2H Artur Grela 5–1 Krystian Kolodziej Krystian Kolodziej has won 1 of their 6 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 03:48What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Grela
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-1 in 6
Grela
Wrong
gap of 4 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Grela 1944 vs Kolodziej 1875
Grela
Wrong
both rated, 68 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Grela 40% vs Kolodziej 80%
Kolodziej
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Grela 60% vs Kolodziej 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Grela +1 · Kolodziej +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% — Slight lean (leans Grela) · live re-read · sealed at 71% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kolodziej form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGrela 1.61 / Kolodziej 2.20
Signal prob.62% / 38%
Edge (Grela)+4.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13075444
Grela1.61
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite66% won 160 of 243
Up 2–0, closes it95% 55 of 58
Up 1–0, closes it76% 107 of 141
Kolodziej2.20
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog35% won 68 of 196
Down 0–1, comes back20% 23 of 114
Down 0–2, comes back3% 2 of 62
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeGrela5wins
AwayKolodziej1wins
3 of 6 to a deciderGrela leads 5–1, and 3 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeGrelan = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayKolodziej20%1 of 5
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Grela1Kolodziej5n = 6Kolodziej took 5 of 6
S2Grela3Kolodziej3n = 6split evenly
S3Grela5Kolodziej1n = 6Grela took 5 of 6
S4Grela3Kolodziej2n = 5Grela took 3 of 5
S5Grela3Kolodziej0n = 3Grela took 3 of 3
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home233%
3–2Decider, home350%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away117%
These 6 meetings
MetricGrelaKolodziejG − KBasisWins51+4in 6 meetingsFirst set15−4of 6Avg pointsper match41.237.8+3.4per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGrelaKolodziejBasisWin rate · lifetime623 / 1236 vs 1328 / 197150.4%67.4%623 / 1236 vs 1328 / 1971Avg sets wonper match2.02.4per matchAvg pointsper match38.438.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
GrelaGrela 1.61/Kolodziej 2.20
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
61.7%
Grela · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Kolodziej won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
WApr 24 · 15:55A. Grela—91111113K. Kolodziej—117191
WFeb 24 · 16:55A. Grela—571111113K. Kolodziej—11117952
WMar 12 · 16:55A. Grela—91111113K. Kolodziej—117591
WMar 4 · 18:50A. Grela—127119113K. Kolodziej—101191162
LJan 15 · 16:55A. Grela—31160K. Kolodziej—1113113
WJan 8 · 20:00A. Grela—911116113K. Kolodziej—11561192
A. Grela10
LSep 5 · 13:45A. Grela1.8391111492S. Kolasa1.83117811113LSep 5 · 12:30A. Grela1.5314381142M. Nowalinski2.381211114113WSep 5 · 11:15A. Grela1.33811711113G. Adamiak3.2511611732WSep 5 · 10:00M. Domin3.251111471A. Grela1.3313711113WSep 5 · 09:20A. Grela1.3011712113S. Sporek3.407111071LSep 5 · 08:30A. Grela1.8081141182S. Kolasa1.91117116113LSep 5 · 06:55A. Grela1.3011611982M. Domin3.40911611113WSep 5 · 05:40A. Grela1.3081111123S. Sporek3.401167101WSep 5 · 04:10A. Grela1.3311117113G. Adamiak3.25641151WSep 5 · 03:00A. Grela1.4011511123M. Nowalinski2.759115101
K. Kolodziej10
LSep 4 · 21:00A. Daniel2.10581211113K. Kolodziej1.67111110592WSep 4 · 20:05P. Jendrzejewski2.63471291K. Kolodziej1.44111110113WSep 4 · 19:15K. Kolodziej1.361311113M. Rutkowski3.0011610WSep 4 · 17:40K. Kolodziej1.1451111113M. Kolek5.00113921WSep 4 · 16:55T. Filbrandt2.63116110K. Kolodziej1.441311133WSep 4 · 14:35K. Kolodziej2.751181011113A. Dosz1.4061112752WSep 4 · 13:20M. Jadczyk1.44591191K. Kolodziej2.6311118113LSep 4 · 12:05D. Michna1.671111113K. Kolodziej2.109480WSep 4 · 10:25A. Wiecek1.331171121K. Kolodziej3.2513119113WSep 3 · 14:10A. Wiecek1.339980K. Kolodziej3.251111113
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