TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13077159
Played Sep 5Finished
Maciej Domin
Home
3.25
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1113117411711––
Artur Grela
Away
1.33
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:49 and never touched — 75.1% is still 75.1%
Graded at full timeArtur Grela to win
75.1%
75.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMaciej Domin above · Artur Grela below
Set 1 · 11-13
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 4-11
Set 4 · 7-11
Point 75 set 4, 7-11 — our read held Artur Grela at 75.1%
75 points played in total.
H2H Maciej Domin 4–2 Artur Grela Artur Grela has won 2 of their 6 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 11:49What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.33 (71%)
Grela
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-2 in 6
Domin
Wrong
gap of 2 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Domin 1783 vs Grela 1938
Grela
Correct
both rated, 155 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Domin 40% vs Grela 60%
Grela
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Domin 50% vs Grela 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Domin -2 · Grela +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 73% — Strong (leans Grela) · live re-read · sealed at 75% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Grela form (60%) is below what odds imply (75%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDomin 3.25 / Grela 1.33
Signal prob.28% / 73%
Edge (Grela)+1.6pp
TT Elite Series · #13077159
Domin3.25
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog43% won 75 of 173
Down 0–1, comes back30% 31 of 105
Down 0–2, comes back11% 6 of 54
Grela1.33
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite65% won 164 of 251
Up 2–0, closes it95% 57 of 60
Up 1–0, closes it76% 110 of 145
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeDomin4wins
AwayGrela2wins
2 of 6 to a deciderDomin leads 4–2, and 2 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDominn = 1, below the 3 needed
AwayGrela40%2 of 5
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Domin1Grela5n = 6Grela took 5 of 6
S2Domin4Grela2n = 6Domin took 4 of 6
S3Domin2Grela4n = 6Grela took 4 of 6
S4Domin4Grela1n = 5Domin took 4 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home233%
3–2Decider, home233%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away117%
0–3Straight, away117%
These 6 meetings
MetricDominGrelaD − GBasisWins42+2in 6 meetingsFirst set15−4of 6Avg pointsper match38.236.7+1.5per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDominGrelaBasisWin rate · lifetime485 / 931 vs 628 / 124452.1%50.5%485 / 931 vs 628 / 1244Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.638.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
GrelaDomin 3.25/Grela 1.33
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
72.5%
Grela · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Grela won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
LSep 5 · 10:00M. Domin—1111471A. Grela—13711113
WSep 5 · 06:55M. Domin—911611113A. Grela—11611982
WAug 27 · 03:00M. Domin—511611113A. Grela—11211792
LAug 21 · 03:00M. Domin—6890A. Grela—1111113
WAug 20 · 05:15M. Domin—41111113A. Grela—114991
WJul 27 · 21:10M. Domin—111111113A. Grela—513541
M. Domin10
WSep 6 · 14:10S. Sporek1.8011911181M. Domin1.9171113203WSep 6 · 13:20J. Braun1.404111271M. Domin2.7511514113WSep 6 · 11:15G. Adamiak1.80971191M. Domin1.9111113113LSep 6 · 10:25M. Nowalinski1.5711511113M. Domin2.25911791LSep 6 · 09:00S. Kolasa1.44121169113M. Domin2.63106111162LSep 6 · 07:45M. Domin2.63710100S. Kolasa1.441112123WSep 6 · 06:30M. Domin2.75111113113J. Braun1.405131161LSep 6 · 05:15M. Domin1.5711115192G. Poliniewicz2.25871111113WSep 6 · 04:10S. Sporek2.101178101M. Domin1.6781111123WSep 6 · 03:25M. Domin2.2512511113M. Nowalinski1.571011841
A. Grela10
LSep 5 · 13:45A. Grela1.8391111492S. Kolasa1.83117811113LSep 5 · 12:30A. Grela1.5314381142M. Nowalinski2.381211114113WSep 5 · 11:15A. Grela1.33811711113G. Adamiak3.2511611732WSep 5 · 09:20A. Grela1.3011712113S. Sporek3.407111071LSep 5 · 08:30A. Grela1.8081141182S. Kolasa1.91117116113LSep 5 · 06:55A. Grela1.3011611982M. Domin3.40911611113WSep 5 · 05:40A. Grela1.3081111123S. Sporek3.401167101WSep 5 · 04:10A. Grela1.3311117113G. Adamiak3.25641151WSep 5 · 03:00A. Grela1.4011511123M. Nowalinski2.759115101LSep 4 · 15:45A. Grela1.61116100K. Kolodziej2.201311123
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