TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13077217
Played Sep 5Finished
Artur Grela
Home
1.30
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
8111161171210––
Szymon Sporek
Away
3.40
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:00 and never touched — 75.9% is still 75.9%
Graded at full timeArtur Grela to win
75.9%
75.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingArtur Grela above · Szymon Sporek below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 12-10
Point 76 set 4, 12-10 — our read held Artur Grela at 75.9%
76 points played in total.
H2H Artur Grela 5–3 Szymon Sporek Szymon Sporek has won 3 of their 8 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 12:00What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.30 (72%)
Grela
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-3 in 8
Grela
Correct
gap of 2 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Grela 1945 vs Sporek 1735
Grela
Correct
both rated, 210 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Grela 60% vs Sporek 100%
Sporek
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Grela 60% vs Sporek 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Grela +2 · Sporek +5
Sporek
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 76% — Strong (leans Grela)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sporek form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (29%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGrela 1.30 / Sporek 3.40
Signal prob.76% / 24%
Edge (Grela)+3.6pp
TT Elite Series · #13077217
Grela1.30
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite65% won 164 of 251
Up 2–0, closes it95% 57 of 60
Up 1–0, closes it76% 110 of 145
Sporek3.40
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 5
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog43% won 68 of 158
Down 0–1, comes back19% 14 of 73
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 36
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeGrela5wins
AwaySporek3wins
2 of 8 to a deciderGrela leads 5–3, and 2 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeGrela75%3 of 4
AwaySporek50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Grela4Sporek4n = 8split evenly
S2Grela5Sporek3n = 8Grela took 5 of 8
S3Grela4Sporek4n = 8split evenly
S4Grela5Sporek3n = 8Grela took 5 of 8
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home450%
3–2Decider, home113%
2–3Decider, away113%
1–3Four sets, away225%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 8 meetings
MetricGrelaSporekG − SBasisWins53+2in 8 meetingsFirst set440of 8Avg pointsper match39.937.1+2.8per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGrelaSporekBasisWin rate · lifetime626 / 1240 vs 409 / 81750.5%50.1%626 / 1240 vs 409 / 817Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.439.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
GrelaGrela 1.30/Sporek 3.40
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
75.9%
Grela · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Grela won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
WMay 28 · 15:10A. Grela—511147113S. Sporek—114121182
WMay 28 · 08:25A. Grela—51111113S. Sporek—118831
WApr 24 · 17:00A. Grela—11711113S. Sporek—911771
LJan 11 · 16:35A. Grela—811171S. Sporek—11114113
WNov 25 · 13:25A. Grela—111110113S. Sporek—351271
LJul 27 · 17:55A. Grela—911991S. Sporek—11811113
WApr 28 · 19:25A. Grela—11119113S. Sporek—841181
LMar 12 · 17:40A. Grela—11951262S. Sporek—8111110113
A. Grela10
LSep 5 · 13:45A. Grela1.8391111492S. Kolasa1.83117811113LSep 5 · 12:30A. Grela1.5314381142M. Nowalinski2.381211114113WSep 5 · 11:15A. Grela1.33811711113G. Adamiak3.2511611732WSep 5 · 10:00M. Domin3.251111471A. Grela1.3313711113WSep 5 · 09:20A. Grela1.3011712113S. Sporek3.407111071LSep 5 · 08:30A. Grela1.8081141182S. Kolasa1.91117116113LSep 5 · 06:55A. Grela1.3011611982M. Domin3.40911611113WSep 5 · 04:10A. Grela1.3311117113G. Adamiak3.25641151WSep 5 · 03:00A. Grela1.4011511123M. Nowalinski2.759115101LSep 4 · 15:45A. Grela1.61116100K. Kolodziej2.201311123
S. Sporek10
LSep 6 · 14:10S. Sporek1.8011911181M. Domin1.9171113203LSep 6 · 12:30G. Adamiak1.831111715113S. Sporek1.8387111752WSep 6 · 11:40S. Kolasa1.40121211592S. Sporek2.751014611113WSep 6 · 10:50S. Sporek2.75811711113J. Braun1.4011911562WSep 6 · 09:40S. Sporek1.9111111110113M. Nowalinski1.8079131282LSep 6 · 08:30S. Sporek1.9141111672M. Nowalinski1.80116711113LSep 6 · 06:55S. Sporek2.7591190S. Kolasa1.401113113WSep 6 · 05:40S. Sporek2.751711102113J. Braun1.40157121192LSep 6 · 04:10S. Sporek2.101178101M. Domin1.6781111123LSep 5 · 09:20A. Grela1.3011712113S. Sporek3.407111071
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