TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13077144
Played Sep 5Finished
Artur Grela
Home
1.30
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
119611116911811
Maciej Domin
Away
3.40
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:50 and never touched — 75.1% is still 75.1%
Graded at full timeArtur Grela to win
75.1%
75.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingArtur Grela above · Maciej Domin below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 93 set 5, 8-11 — our read held Artur Grela at 75.1%
93 points played in total.
H2H Artur Grela 2–4 Maciej Domin Artur Grela has won 2 of their 6 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 11:50What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.30 (72%)
Grela
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-4 in 6
Domin
Correct
gap of 2 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Grela 1880 vs Domin 1805
Grela
Wrong
both rated, 74 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Grela 80% vs Domin 60%
Grela
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Grela 60% vs Domin 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Grela +3 · Domin -1
Grela
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 72% — Strong (leans Grela) · live re-read · sealed at 75% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Domin form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (29%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGrela 1.30 / Domin 3.40
Signal prob.72% / 28%
Edge (Grela)-0.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13077144
Grela1.30
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite65% won 165 of 254
Up 2–0, closes it95% 56 of 59
Up 1–0, closes it75% 110 of 146
Domin3.40
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog44% won 84 of 189
Down 0–1, comes back30% 34 of 115
Down 0–2, comes back11% 6 of 57
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeGrela2wins
AwayDomin4wins
2 of 6 to a deciderDomin leads 4–2, and 2 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeGrela40%2 of 5
AwayDominn = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Grela5Domin1n = 6Grela took 5 of 6
S2Grela2Domin4n = 6Domin took 4 of 6
S3Grela4Domin2n = 6Grela took 4 of 6
S4Grela1Domin4n = 5Domin took 4 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home117%
3–1Four sets, home117%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away233%
1–3Four sets, away233%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 6 meetings
MetricGrelaDominG − DBasisWins24−2in 6 meetingsFirst set51+4of 6Avg pointsper match36.738.2−1.5per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGrelaDominBasisWin rate · lifetime629 / 1247 vs 493 / 94450.4%52.2%629 / 1247 vs 493 / 944Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.438.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
GrelaGrela 1.30/Domin 3.40
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
71.9%
Grela · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Domin won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
WSep 5 · 10:00A. Grela—13711113M. Domin—1111471
LSep 5 · 06:55A. Grela—11611982M. Domin—911611113
LAug 27 · 03:00A. Grela—11211792M. Domin—511611113
WAug 21 · 03:00A. Grela—1111113M. Domin—6890
LAug 20 · 05:15A. Grela—114991M. Domin—41111113
LJul 27 · 21:10A. Grela—513541M. Domin—111111113
A. Grela10
LSep 5 · 13:45A. Grela1.8391111492S. Kolasa1.83117811113LSep 5 · 12:30A. Grela1.5314381142M. Nowalinski2.381211114113WSep 5 · 11:15A. Grela1.33811711113G. Adamiak3.2511611732WSep 5 · 10:00M. Domin3.251111471A. Grela1.3313711113WSep 5 · 09:20A. Grela1.3011712113S. Sporek3.407111071LSep 5 · 08:30A. Grela1.8081141182S. Kolasa1.91117116113WSep 5 · 05:40A. Grela1.3081111123S. Sporek3.401167101WSep 5 · 04:10A. Grela1.3311117113G. Adamiak3.25641151WSep 5 · 03:00A. Grela1.4011511123M. Nowalinski2.759115101LSep 4 · 15:45A. Grela1.61116100K. Kolodziej2.201311123
M. Domin10
WSep 6 · 14:10S. Sporek1.8011911181M. Domin1.9171113203WSep 6 · 13:20J. Braun1.404111271M. Domin2.7511514113WSep 6 · 11:15G. Adamiak1.80971191M. Domin1.9111113113LSep 6 · 10:25M. Nowalinski1.5711511113M. Domin2.25911791LSep 6 · 09:00S. Kolasa1.44121169113M. Domin2.63106111162LSep 6 · 07:45M. Domin2.63710100S. Kolasa1.441112123WSep 6 · 06:30M. Domin2.75111113113J. Braun1.405131161LSep 6 · 05:15M. Domin1.5711115192G. Poliniewicz2.25871111113WSep 6 · 04:10S. Sporek2.101178101M. Domin1.6781111123LSep 5 · 10:00M. Domin3.251111471A. Grela1.3313711113
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