TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13077190
Played Sep 5Finished
Artur Grela
Home
1.53
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
1412311811114411
Maciej Nowalinski
Away
2.38
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:59 and never touched — 70.3% is still 70.3%
Graded at full timeArtur Grela to win
70.3%
70.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingArtur Grela above · Maciej Nowalinski below
Set 1 · 14-12
Set 2 · 3-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 11-4
Set 5 · 4-11
Point 89 set 5, 4-11 — our read held Artur Grela at 70.3%
89 points played in total.
H2H Artur Grela 25–13 Maciej Nowalinski Maciej Nowalinski has won 13 of their 38 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 11:59What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Grela
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
25-13 in 38
Grela
Wrong
gap of 12 in 38, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Grela 1943 vs Nowalinski 1739
Grela
Wrong
both rated, 204 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Grela 60% vs Nowalinski 40%
Grela
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Grela 60% vs Nowalinski 30%
Grela
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Grela +3 · Nowalinski -1
Grela
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% — Clear lean (leans Grela) · live re-read · sealed at 70% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGrela 1.53 / Nowalinski 2.38
Signal prob.65% / 35%
Edge (Grela)+4.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13077190
Grela1.53
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite65% won 164 of 251
Up 2–0, closes it95% 57 of 60
Up 1–0, closes it76% 110 of 145
Nowalinski2.38
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog37% won 130 of 349
Down 0–1, comes back18% 36 of 201
Down 0–2, comes back2% 2 of 93
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeGrela6wins
AwayNowalinski4wins
2 of 10 to a deciderGrela leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeGrela100%5 of 5
AwayNowalinski80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Grela5Nowalinski5n = 10split evenly
S2Grela5Nowalinski5n = 10split evenly
S3Grela7Nowalinski3n = 10Grela took 7 of 10
S4Grela4Nowalinski3n = 7Grela took 4 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricGrelaNowalinskiG − NBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match37.534.6+2.9per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGrelaNowalinskiBasisWin rate · lifetime629 / 1245 vs 839 / 174150.5%48.2%629 / 1245 vs 839 / 1741Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.438.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
GrelaGrela 1.53/Nowalinski 2.38
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
64.8%
Grela · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Nowalinski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJul 5 · 08:30A. Grela—910111132M. Nowalinski—111288113
WMay 28 · 05:25A. Grela—11711113M. Nowalinski—711681
LMay 14 · 15:10A. Grela—311871M. Nowalinski—11911113
WMay 14 · 08:25A. Grela—1111113M. Nowalinski—3880
WApr 24 · 14:50A. Grela—711114123M. Nowalinski—116711102
WApr 17 · 14:30A. Grela—11911113M. Nowalinski—711481
WApr 17 · 05:15A. Grela—11811113M. Nowalinski—711681
LApr 4 · 15:10A. Grela—911981M. Nowalinski—11511113
LApr 3 · 12:50A. Grela—111090M. Nowalinski—1312113
WMar 6 · 14:40A. Grela—1112113M. Nowalinski—61060
A. Grela10
LSep 5 · 13:45A. Grela1.8391111492S. Kolasa1.83117811113WSep 5 · 11:15A. Grela1.33811711113G. Adamiak3.2511611732WSep 5 · 10:00M. Domin3.251111471A. Grela1.3313711113WSep 5 · 09:20A. Grela1.3011712113S. Sporek3.407111071LSep 5 · 08:30A. Grela1.8081141182S. Kolasa1.91117116113LSep 5 · 06:55A. Grela1.3011611982M. Domin3.40911611113WSep 5 · 05:40A. Grela1.3081111123S. Sporek3.401167101WSep 5 · 04:10A. Grela1.3311117113G. Adamiak3.25641151WSep 5 · 03:00A. Grela1.4011511123M. Nowalinski2.759115101LSep 4 · 15:45A. Grela1.61116100K. Kolodziej2.201311123
M. Nowalinski10
LSep 6 · 13:45G. Adamiak1.83113611113M. Nowalinski1.8361111662LSep 6 · 12:55S. Kolasa1.6111811113M. Nowalinski2.20811761LSep 6 · 12:05M. Nowalinski2.50115991J. Braun1.5021111113WSep 6 · 10:25M. Nowalinski1.5711511113M. Domin2.25911791LSep 6 · 09:40S. Sporek1.9111111110113M. Nowalinski1.8079131282WSep 6 · 08:30S. Sporek1.9141111672M. Nowalinski1.80116711113LSep 6 · 07:20M. Nowalinski1.508138101G. Poliniewicz2.50111111123WSep 6 · 06:05S. Kolasa1.73101151182M. Nowalinski2.00126118113LSep 6 · 04:55J. Braun1.5011128113M. Nowalinski2.504101161LSep 5 · 03:00A. Grela1.4011511123M. Nowalinski2.759115101
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