TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13077213
Played Sep 5Finished
Artur Grela
Home
1.33
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
811116711117113
Grzegorz Adamiak
Away
3.25
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:59 and never touched — 72.6% is still 72.6%
Graded at full timeArtur Grela to win
72.6%
72.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingArtur Grela above · Grzegorz Adamiak below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 11-3
Point 86 set 5, 11-3 — our read held Artur Grela at 72.6%
86 points played in total.
H2H Artur Grela 11–1 Grzegorz Adamiak Grzegorz Adamiak has won 1 of their 12 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 11:59What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.33 (71%)
Grela
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
11-1 in 12
Grela
Correct
gap of 10 in 12, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Grela 1938 vs Adamiak 1786
Grela
Correct
both rated, 152 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Grela 60% vs Adamiak 80%
Adamiak
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Grela 60% vs Adamiak 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Grela +2 · Adamiak +4
Adamiak
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 74% — Strong (leans Grela) · live re-read · sealed at 73% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Adamiak form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (31%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGrela 1.33 / Adamiak 3.25
Signal prob.74% / 26%
Edge (Grela)+3.5pp
TT Elite Series · #13077213
Grela1.33
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite65% won 164 of 251
Up 2–0, closes it95% 57 of 60
Up 1–0, closes it76% 110 of 145
Adamiak3.25
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog29% won 64 of 223
Down 0–1, comes back14% 20 of 144
Down 0–2, comes back4% 4 of 93
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeGrela9wins
AwayAdamiak1wins
4 of 10 to a deciderGrela leads 9–1, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeGrela100%6 of 6
AwayAdamiak25%1 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Grela6Adamiak4n = 10Grela took 6 of 10
S2Grela7Adamiak3n = 10Grela took 7 of 10
S3Grela6Adamiak4n = 10Grela took 6 of 10
S4Grela4Adamiak1n = 5Grela took 4 of 5
S5Grela4Adamiak0n = 4Grela took 4 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricGrelaAdamiakG − ABasisWins91+8in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match40.236.4+3.8per matchSweeps41+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGrelaAdamiakBasisWin rate · lifetime628 / 1244 vs 332 / 76350.5%43.5%628 / 1244 vs 332 / 763Avg sets wonper match2.01.8per matchAvg pointsper match38.435.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
GrelaGrela 1.33/Adamiak 3.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
74.4%
Grela · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Grela won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJun 7 · 11:10A. Grela—111211133G. Adamiak—8148111
WJun 7 · 06:40A. Grela—1112113G. Adamiak—71090
WMay 16 · 11:10A. Grela—414311113G. Adamiak—111211882
WMay 16 · 06:40A. Grela—1111133G. Adamiak—66110
WApr 26 · 13:40A. Grela—11111014123G. Adamiak—1381212102
WApr 26 · 09:35A. Grela—911611143G. Adamiak—117118122
LApr 25 · 15:10A. Grela—9360G. Adamiak—1111113
WApr 25 · 06:15A. Grela—1111113G. Adamiak—9770
WJan 4 · 16:10A. Grela—1111113G. Adamiak—5380
WJul 13 · 10:25A. Grela—119136113G. Adamiak—711111182
A. Grela10
LSep 5 · 13:45A. Grela1.8391111492S. Kolasa1.83117811113LSep 5 · 12:30A. Grela1.5314381142M. Nowalinski2.381211114113WSep 5 · 10:00M. Domin3.251111471A. Grela1.3313711113WSep 5 · 09:20A. Grela1.3011712113S. Sporek3.407111071LSep 5 · 08:30A. Grela1.8081141182S. Kolasa1.91117116113LSep 5 · 06:55A. Grela1.3011611982M. Domin3.40911611113WSep 5 · 05:40A. Grela1.3081111123S. Sporek3.401167101WSep 5 · 04:10A. Grela1.3311117113G. Adamiak3.25641151WSep 5 · 03:00A. Grela1.4011511123M. Nowalinski2.759115101LSep 4 · 15:45A. Grela1.61116100K. Kolodziej2.201311123
G. Adamiak10
WSep 6 · 13:45G. Adamiak1.83113611113M. Nowalinski1.8361111662WSep 6 · 12:30G. Adamiak1.831111715113S. Sporek1.8387111752LSep 6 · 11:15G. Adamiak1.80971191M. Domin1.9111113113LSep 6 · 10:00S. Kolasa1.4461111113G. Adamiak2.63117621LSep 6 · 09:20G. Adamiak2.75911961J. Braun1.4011911113WSep 6 · 08:05D. Wasilewski4.25117110G. Adamiak1.181311133WSep 6 · 07:15M. Zagajewski5.80691131G. Adamiak1.0911115113WSep 6 · 05:15P. Staniszewski5.405970G. Adamiak1.111111113WSep 6 · 04:25T. Pisarczyk6.906450G. Adamiak1.061111113LSep 5 · 04:10A. Grela1.3311117113G. Adamiak3.25641151
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