TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13077164
Played Sep 5Finished
Artur Grela
Home
1.40
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1195111151210––
Maciej Nowalinski
Away
2.75
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:50 and never touched — 70.3% is still 70.3%
Graded at full timeArtur Grela to win
70.3%
70.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingArtur Grela above · Maciej Nowalinski below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 12-10
Point 74 set 4, 12-10 — our read held Artur Grela at 70.3%
74 points played in total.
H2H Artur Grela 25–13 Maciej Nowalinski Maciej Nowalinski has won 13 of their 38 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 11:50What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Grela
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
25-13 in 38
Grela
Correct
gap of 12 in 38, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Grela 1927 vs Nowalinski 1772
Grela
Correct
both rated, 155 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Grela 20% vs Nowalinski 40%
Nowalinski
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Grela 50% vs Nowalinski 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Grela -1 · Nowalinski -3
Nowalinski
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 70% — Strong (leans Grela)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Grela form (20%) is below what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGrela 1.40 / Nowalinski 2.75
Signal prob.70% / 30%
Edge (Grela)+4.0pp
TT Elite Series · #13077164
Grela1.40
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite66% won 160 of 243
Up 2–0, closes it95% 55 of 58
Up 1–0, closes it76% 107 of 141
Nowalinski2.75
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog37% won 133 of 360
Down 0–1, comes back18% 37 of 208
Down 0–2, comes back2% 2 of 95
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeGrela6wins
AwayNowalinski4wins
2 of 10 to a deciderGrela leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeGrela100%5 of 5
AwayNowalinski80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Grela5Nowalinski5n = 10split evenly
S2Grela5Nowalinski5n = 10split evenly
S3Grela7Nowalinski3n = 10Grela took 7 of 10
S4Grela4Nowalinski3n = 7Grela took 4 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricGrelaNowalinskiG − NBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match37.534.6+2.9per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGrelaNowalinskiBasisWin rate · lifetime623 / 1237 vs 838 / 173850.4%48.2%623 / 1237 vs 838 / 1738Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.438.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
GrelaGrela 1.40/Nowalinski 2.75
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
70.3%
Grela · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Grela won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJul 5 · 08:30A. Grela—910111132M. Nowalinski—111288113
WMay 28 · 05:25A. Grela—11711113M. Nowalinski—711681
LMay 14 · 15:10A. Grela—311871M. Nowalinski—11911113
WMay 14 · 08:25A. Grela—1111113M. Nowalinski—3880
WApr 24 · 14:50A. Grela—711114123M. Nowalinski—116711102
WApr 17 · 14:30A. Grela—11911113M. Nowalinski—711481
WApr 17 · 05:15A. Grela—11811113M. Nowalinski—711681
LApr 4 · 15:10A. Grela—911981M. Nowalinski—11511113
LApr 3 · 12:50A. Grela—111090M. Nowalinski—1312113
WMar 6 · 14:40A. Grela—1112113M. Nowalinski—61060
A. Grela10
LSep 5 · 13:45A. Grela1.8391111492S. Kolasa1.83117811113LSep 5 · 12:30A. Grela1.5314381142M. Nowalinski2.381211114113WSep 5 · 11:15A. Grela1.33811711113G. Adamiak3.2511611732WSep 5 · 10:00M. Domin3.251111471A. Grela1.3313711113WSep 5 · 09:20A. Grela1.3011712113S. Sporek3.407111071LSep 5 · 08:30A. Grela1.8081141182S. Kolasa1.91117116113LSep 5 · 06:55A. Grela1.3011611982M. Domin3.40911611113WSep 5 · 05:40A. Grela1.3081111123S. Sporek3.401167101WSep 5 · 04:10A. Grela1.3311117113G. Adamiak3.25641151LSep 4 · 15:45A. Grela1.61116100K. Kolodziej2.201311123
M. Nowalinski10
LSep 6 · 13:45G. Adamiak1.83113611113M. Nowalinski1.8361111662LSep 6 · 12:55S. Kolasa1.6111811113M. Nowalinski2.20811761LSep 6 · 12:05M. Nowalinski2.50115991J. Braun1.5021111113WSep 6 · 10:25M. Nowalinski1.5711511113M. Domin2.25911791LSep 6 · 09:40S. Sporek1.9111111110113M. Nowalinski1.8079131282WSep 6 · 08:30S. Sporek1.9141111672M. Nowalinski1.80116711113LSep 6 · 07:20M. Nowalinski1.508138101G. Poliniewicz2.50111111123WSep 6 · 06:05S. Kolasa1.73101151182M. Nowalinski2.00126118113LSep 6 · 04:55J. Braun1.5011128113M. Nowalinski2.504101161WSep 5 · 12:30A. Grela1.5314381142M. Nowalinski2.381211114113
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