TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13077184
Played Sep 5Finished
Artur Grela
Home
1.80
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
811117411116811
Szymon Kolasa
Away
1.91
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:00 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeArtur Grela to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingArtur Grela above · Szymon Kolasa below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 4-11
Set 4 · 11-6
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 88 set 5, 8-11 — our read held Artur Grela at 54.0%
88 points played in total.
H2H Artur Grela 20–15 Szymon Kolasa Szymon Kolasa has won 15 of their 35 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 12:00What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Grela
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
20-15 in 35
Grela
Wrong
gap of 5 in 35, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Grela 1916 vs Kolasa 1886
Grela
Wrong
both rated, 30 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Grela 60% vs Kolasa 40%
Grela
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Grela 50% vs Kolasa 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Grela -1 · Kolasa +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Grela)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kolasa form (40%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGrela 1.80 / Kolasa 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Grela)+2.5pp
TT Elite Series · #13077184
Grela1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite65% won 164 of 251
Up 2–0, closes it95% 57 of 60
Up 1–0, closes it76% 110 of 145
Kolasa1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog45% won 63 of 139
Down 0–1, comes back35% 30 of 86
Down 0–2, comes back15% 6 of 39
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeGrela6wins
AwayKolasa4wins
6 of 10 to a deciderGrela leads 6–4, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeGrela57.1%4 of 7
AwayKolasa33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Grela7Kolasa3n = 10Grela took 7 of 10
S2Grela5Kolasa5n = 10split evenly
S3Grela2Kolasa8n = 10Kolasa took 8 of 10
S4Grela6Kolasa4n = 10Grela took 6 of 10
S5Grela4Kolasa2n = 6Grela took 4 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home440%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricGrelaKolasaG − KBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match40.443.1−2.7per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGrelaKolasaBasisWin rate · lifetime626 / 1241 vs 279 / 50950.4%54.8%626 / 1241 vs 279 / 509Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.439.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
GrelaGrela 1.80/Kolasa 1.91
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Grela · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Kolasa won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 27 · 13:45A. Grela—511116113S. Kolasa—11791162
WAug 27 · 08:30A. Grela—117611113S. Kolasa—91111872
WAug 26 · 14:35A. Grela—11115113S. Kolasa—791181
LAug 26 · 06:30A. Grela—117761S. Kolasa—81111113
LJul 31 · 11:40A. Grela—911661S. Kolasa—11711113
LJul 31 · 03:25A. Grela—11881152S. Kolasa—911116113
WJul 30 · 10:00A. Grela—11124113S. Kolasa—7101191
WJul 30 · 06:05A. Grela—5111011113S. Kolasa—11912882
LJul 15 · 03:00A. Grela—11471242S. Kolasa—6111110113
WJul 14 · 05:15A. Grela—118114123S. Kolasa—911211102
A. Grela10
LSep 5 · 13:45A. Grela1.8391111492S. Kolasa1.83117811113LSep 5 · 12:30A. Grela1.5314381142M. Nowalinski2.381211114113WSep 5 · 11:15A. Grela1.33811711113G. Adamiak3.2511611732WSep 5 · 10:00M. Domin3.251111471A. Grela1.3313711113WSep 5 · 09:20A. Grela1.3011712113S. Sporek3.407111071LSep 5 · 06:55A. Grela1.3011611982M. Domin3.40911611113WSep 5 · 05:40A. Grela1.3081111123S. Sporek3.401167101WSep 5 · 04:10A. Grela1.3311117113G. Adamiak3.25641151WSep 5 · 03:00A. Grela1.4011511123M. Nowalinski2.759115101LSep 4 · 15:45A. Grela1.61116100K. Kolodziej2.201311123
S. Kolasa10
WSep 7 · 06:55S. Kolasa2.00131111113M. Jadczyk1.73156591LSep 7 · 05:40S. Kolasa2.00613791P. David1.73111111113LSep 7 · 04:10S. Kolasa2.386270J. Kosowski1.531111113WSep 6 · 14:35S. Kolasa1.7311811113J. Braun2.00711751WSep 6 · 12:55S. Kolasa1.6111811113M. Nowalinski2.20811761LSep 6 · 11:40S. Kolasa1.40121211592S. Sporek2.751014611113WSep 6 · 10:00S. Kolasa1.4461111113G. Adamiak2.63117621WSep 6 · 09:00S. Kolasa1.44121169113M. Domin2.63106111162WSep 6 · 07:45M. Domin2.63710100S. Kolasa1.441112123WSep 5 · 13:45A. Grela1.8391111492S. Kolasa1.83117811113
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