TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13087307
Played Sep 7Finished
Karol Strowski
Home
1.62
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
119111113114––
Mateusz Rutkowski
Away
2.20
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:29 and never touched — 56.6% is still 56.6%
Graded at full timeKarol Strowski to win
56.6%
56.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingKarol Strowski above · Mateusz Rutkowski below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 1-11
Set 3 · 11-3
Set 4 · 11-4
Point 61 set 4, 11-4 — our read held Karol Strowski at 56.6%
61 points played in total.
H2H Karol Strowski 14–5 Mateusz Rutkowski Mateusz Rutkowski has won 5 of their 19 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 12:29What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Strowski
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
14-5 in 19
Strowski
Correct
gap of 9 in 19, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Strowski 1812 vs Rutkowski 1668
Strowski
Correct
both rated, 144 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Strowski 60% vs Rutkowski 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Strowski 50% vs Rutkowski 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Strowski -1 · Rutkowski -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% — Clear lean (leans Strowski) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Rutkowski form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStrowski 1.61 / Rutkowski 2.20
Signal prob.62% / 38%
Edge (Strowski)+4.4pp
TT Elite Series · #13087307
Strowski1.61
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite66% won 269 of 405
Up 2–0, closes it96% 98 of 102
Up 1–0, closes it84% 182 of 218
Rutkowski2.20
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog44% won 164 of 376
Down 0–1, comes back22% 47 of 212
Down 0–2, comes back7% 7 of 100
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeStrowski7wins
AwayRutkowski3wins
4 of 10 to a deciderStrowski leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStrowski100%7 of 7
AwayRutkowski100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Strowski7Rutkowski3n = 10Strowski took 7 of 10
S2Strowski3Rutkowski7n = 10Rutkowski took 7 of 10
S3Strowski6Rutkowski4n = 10Strowski took 6 of 10
S4Strowski5Rutkowski3n = 8Strowski took 5 of 8
S5Strowski3Rutkowski1n = 4Strowski took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricStrowskiRutkowskiS − RBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match42.237.4+4.8per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStrowskiRutkowskiBasisWin rate · lifetime819 / 1400 vs 767 / 136958.5%56%819 / 1400 vs 767 / 1369Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.037.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StrowskiStrowski 1.61/Rutkowski 2.20
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
62.1%
Strowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Strowski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJun 16 · 16:30K. Strowski—11116113M. Rutkowski—941121
WMay 26 · 17:25K. Strowski—1110129113M. Rutkowski—812101172
LMay 1 · 19:45K. Strowski—10111191M. Rutkowski—12132113
WApr 24 · 14:45K. Strowski—11911113M. Rutkowski—711391
WApr 23 · 16:40K. Strowski—1110711113M. Rutkowski—71211652
WApr 21 · 16:20K. Strowski—1111123M. Rutkowski—79100
LApr 14 · 16:20K. Strowski—96111292M. Rutkowski—1111710113
WApr 10 · 17:25K. Strowski—11118113M. Rutkowski—681171
LMar 19 · 20:45K. Strowski—7890M. Rutkowski—1111113
WMar 12 · 20:45K. Strowski—128137113M. Rutkowski—1011111172
K. Strowski10
WSep 7 · 16:05K. Staszczyk3.50561131K. Strowski1.2811114113LSep 7 · 14:35K. Strowski1.7471161182K. Glazowski1.94115119113WSep 7 · 13:00K. Strowski1.6011115113G. Poliniewicz2.15971171WSep 7 · 11:45K. Strowski1.471113123K. Wisniewski2.45911100WSep 7 · 10:05K. Strowski1.43119116123M. Sklensky2.60911511102LSep 7 · 09:00K. Strowski2.5091312101K. Wloczko1.44111510123LSep 1 · 19:40K. Strowski2.0091171152L. Jarocki1.73117119113LSep 1 · 18:30K. Strowski2.00781181K. Glazowski1.7311117113WSep 1 · 17:20K. Strowski1.611111113M. Sklensky2.208470LSep 1 · 16:05A. Spychala2.20111278113K. Strowski1.61910111162
M. Rutkowski10
LSep 5 · 01:10M. Rutkowski1.57812111192M. Kolek2.251110139113WSep 5 · 24:20M. Rutkowski1.801413113P. Jendrzejewski1.91121150WSep 4 · 22:50M. Rutkowski1.731111113J. Kuzmicz2.009680WSep 4 · 22:30M. Rutkowski1.731111113T. Filbrandt2.007380LSep 4 · 21:45P. Jendrzejewski1.801111113M. Rutkowski1.919550WSep 4 · 20:30M. Rutkowski1.57101211113M. Kolek2.251210961LSep 4 · 19:15K. Kolodziej1.361311113M. Rutkowski3.0011610WSep 4 · 18:05T. Filbrandt2.101191171M. Rutkowski1.6771113113LSep 4 · 16:30A. Daniel1.501271113113M. Rutkowski2.50141141192WSep 4 · 24:35M. Kolek2.63831191M. Rutkowski1.4411116113
Upcoming Matches
K. Strowski
M. Rutkowski1 of 10 neutral
Sep 7 · 18:05M. Rutkowski1.83K. Glazowski1.83—Sep 7 · 19:15M. Rutkowski1.40K. Kostyk2.75—Sep 7 · 20:30M. Rutkowski2.00K. Staszczyk1.73—Sep 7 · 21:25M. Rutkowski1.80K. Kapik1.91—Sep 7 · 21:50M. Rutkowski1.22B. Sulkowski4.00—Sep 7 · 23:20M. Rutkowski2.00K. Staszczyk1.73—Sep 8 · 24:10M. Rutkowski1.40K. Kostyk2.75—Sep 8 · 15:00M. Rutkowski—K. Kostyk——Sep 8 · 16:30M. Rutkowski—K. Glazowski——Sep 8 · 17:20M. Rutkowski—A. Daniel——
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