TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13091626
Played Sep 7Finished
Karol Strowski
Home
1.22
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1141198111113113
Kamil Kostyk
Away
4.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:40 and never touched — 56.8% is still 56.8%
Graded at full timeKamil Kostyk to win
56.8%
56.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingKarol Strowski above · Kamil Kostyk below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 11-13
Set 5 · 11-3
Point 92 set 5, 11-3 — our read held Kamil Kostyk at 56.8%
92 points played in total.
H2H Karol Strowski 4–0 Kamil Kostyk Kamil Kostyk has won 0 of their 4 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 09:40What took a side0 for · 4 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.22 (77%)
Strowski
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-0 in 4
Strowski
Correct
gap of 4 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Strowski 1824 vs Kostyk 1479
Strowski
Correct
both rated, 346 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Strowski 80% vs Kostyk 40%
Strowski
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Strowski 60% vs Kostyk 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Strowski +2 · Kostyk -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
0 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 79% — Strong (leans Strowski) · live re-read · sealed at 43% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kostyk form (40%) outperforms what odds imply (25%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStrowski 1.22 / Kostyk 4.00
Signal prob.79% / 21%
Edge (Strowski)+2.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13091626
Strowski1.22
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite66% won 269 of 405
Up 2–0, closes it96% 98 of 102
Up 1–0, closes it84% 182 of 218
Kostyk4.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog37% won 45 of 122
Down 0–1, comes back22% 16 of 72
Down 0–2, comes back8% 3 of 39
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeStrowski4wins
AwayKostyk0wins
Strowski leads 4–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Strowski2Kostyk2n = 4split evenly
S2Strowski3Kostyk1n = 4Strowski took 3 of 4
S3Strowski4Kostyk0n = 4Strowski took 4 of 4
S4Strowski3Kostyk0n = 3Strowski took 3 of 3
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home125%
3–1Four sets, home375%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricStrowskiKostykS − KBasisWins40+4in 4 meetingsFirst set220of 4Avg pointsper match39.827.5+12.3per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStrowskiKostykBasisWin rate · lifetime821 / 1402 vs 217 / 42158.6%51.5%821 / 1402 vs 217 / 421Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.938.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StrowskiStrowski 1.22/Kostyk 4.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
79.4%
Strowski · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Strowski won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
WJul 24 · 16:30K. Strowski—71113113K. Kostyk—1121161
WJun 20 · 18:30K. Strowski—71111113K. Kostyk—116521
WApr 7 · 13:10K. Strowski—11811113K. Kostyk—711961
WNov 22 · 11:20K. Strowski—1111143K. Kostyk—56120
K. Strowski10
WSep 7 · 16:05K. Staszczyk3.50561131K. Strowski1.2811114113WSep 7 · 15:25K. Strowski1.6111111113M. Rutkowski2.20911341LSep 7 · 14:35K. Strowski1.7471161182K. Glazowski1.94115119113WSep 7 · 13:00K. Strowski1.6011115113G. Poliniewicz2.15971171WSep 7 · 11:45K. Strowski1.471113123K. Wisniewski2.45911100WSep 7 · 10:05K. Strowski1.43119116123M. Sklensky2.60911511102LSep 7 · 09:00K. Strowski2.5091312101K. Wloczko1.44111510123LSep 1 · 19:40K. Strowski2.0091171152L. Jarocki1.73117119113LSep 1 · 18:30K. Strowski2.00781181K. Glazowski1.7311117113WSep 1 · 17:20K. Strowski1.611111113M. Sklensky2.208470
K. Kostyk10
LSep 7 · 16:30K. Glazowski1.2811911113K. Kostyk3.50611541WSep 7 · 15:00K. Staszczyk1.6154110K. Kostyk2.201111133WAug 16 · 23:20B. Mleczko1.85112651K. Kostyk1.8591111113LAug 16 · 22:35D. Solilo2.85131198113K. Kostyk1.36119111192LAug 16 · 22:15K. Kostyk1.678811121A. Lilien2.0311118143WAug 16 · 21:05D. Kotwica2.4011155732K. Kostyk1.518131111113LAug 16 · 20:30K. Kostyk1.6614117992B. Mleczko2.051271111113WAug 16 · 18:55K. Kostyk1.301011158153J. Michalczyk3.251221311132WAug 16 · 17:45K. Kostyk1.5711117113A. Lilien2.20681191WAug 16 · 16:15K. Kostyk2.001111113D. Solilo1.716780
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