TT Lossbeater/TT Elite Series
TT Elite SeriesMatch #13088284
Played Sep 7Finished
Krzysztof Kapik
Home
1.57
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 4
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
8111171199111210
Kamil Kostyk
Away
2.25
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:37 and never touched — 59.0% is still 59.0%
Graded at full timeKrzysztof Kapik to win
59.0%
59.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingKrzysztof Kapik above · Kamil Kostyk below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 12-10
Point 99 set 5, 12-10 — our read held Krzysztof Kapik at 59.0%
99 points played in total.
H2H Krzysztof Kapik 2–1 Kamil Kostyk Kamil Kostyk has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 15:37What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Kapik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-1 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kapik 1690 vs Kostyk 1465
Kapik
Correct
both rated, 225 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kapik 80% vs Kostyk 40%
Kapik
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kapik 60% vs Kostyk 40%
Kapik
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kapik +4 · Kostyk -3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% — Slight lean (leans Kapik) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kapik form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKapik 1.57 / Kostyk 2.25
Signal prob.62% / 38%
Edge (Kapik)+2.8pp
TT Elite Series · #13088284
Kapik1.57
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite62% won 258 of 415
Up 2–0, closes it97% 132 of 136
Up 1–0, closes it79% 178 of 226
Kostyk2.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog37% won 45 of 122
Down 0–1, comes back22% 16 of 72
Down 0–2, comes back8% 3 of 39
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeKapik2wins
AwayKostyk1wins
1 of 3 to a deciderKapik leads 2–1, and 1 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kapik2Kostyk1n = 3Kapik took 2 of 3
S2Kapik3Kostyk0n = 3Kapik took 3 of 3
S3Kapik3Kostyk0n = 3Kapik took 3 of 3
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home267%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away133%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricKapikKostykKapik − KostykBasisWins21+1in 3 meetingsFirst set21+1of 3Avg pointsper match37.030.0+7.0per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKapikKostykBasisWin rate · lifetime1121 / 2112 vs 217 / 42353.1%51.3%1121 / 2112 vs 217 / 423Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.138.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KapikKapik 1.57/Kostyk 2.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
61.7%
Kapik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Kapik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
WJul 27 · 13:25K. Kapik—1111113K. Kostyk—7870
LJun 22 · 24:20K. Kapik—91111862K. Kostyk—118711113
WJun 21 · 22:05K. Kapik—1111113K. Kostyk—7580
K. Kapik10
WSep 7 · 18:30K. Strowski1.5781111662K. Kapik2.25118911113WSep 7 · 17:40K. Staszczyk1.8391161182K. Kapik1.83117119113WSep 7 · 16:55K. Kapik1.911112113M. Rutkowski1.8081070WSep 7 · 15:45K. Kapik2.2512511113K. Glazowski1.571011661LSep 7 · 24:10K. Kapik2.251261081D. Jadam1.57101112113LSep 6 · 23:20K. Kapik1.9161151172F. Mlynarski1.80119115113WSep 6 · 21:50K. Kapik1.441111113A. Wos2.638640LSep 6 · 21:25K. Kapik1.671091181L. Pietraszko2.1012119113WSep 6 · 20:30F. Mlynarski1.8311811382K. Kapik1.83811811113LSep 6 · 19:15K. Kapik2.258911101J. Kuzmicz1.5711115123
K. Kostyk10
LSep 7 · 19:15M. Rutkowski1.401111113K. Kostyk2.759980LSep 7 · 17:20K. Strowski1.221111811113K. Kostyk4.0049111332LSep 7 · 16:30K. Glazowski1.2811911113K. Kostyk3.50611541WSep 7 · 15:00K. Staszczyk1.6154110K. Kostyk2.201111133WAug 16 · 23:20B. Mleczko1.85112651K. Kostyk1.8591111113LAug 16 · 22:35D. Solilo2.85131198113K. Kostyk1.36119111192LAug 16 · 22:15K. Kostyk1.678811121A. Lilien2.0311118143WAug 16 · 21:05D. Kotwica2.4011155732K. Kostyk1.518131111113LAug 16 · 20:30K. Kostyk1.6614117992B. Mleczko2.051271111113WAug 16 · 18:55K. Kostyk1.301011158153J. Michalczyk3.251221311132
Upcoming Matches
K. Kapik3 of 10 neutral
Sep 7 · 21:25K. Kapik2.00M. Rutkowski1.73—Sep 7 · 22:10K. Kapik1.80K. Staszczyk1.91—Sep 7 · 22:55K. Kapik1.57K. Kostyk2.25—Sep 8 · 24:35K. Kapik1.30B. Sulkowski3.40—Sep 8 · 15:25K. Kapik—A. Daniel——Sep 8 · 16:55K. Kapik—L. Pietraszko——Sep 8 · 18:05K. Kapik—K. Glazowski——Sep 8 · 19:15K. Kapik—M. Rutkowski——Sep 8 · 20:30K. Kapik—K. Kostyk——Sep 8 · 21:25K. Kapik—L. Pietraszko——
K. Kostyk1 of 10 neutral
Sep 7 · 22:55K. Kostyk2.25K. Kapik1.57—Sep 7 · 23:45K. Kostyk1.44B. Sulkowski2.63—Sep 8 · 24:10K. Kostyk2.50M. Rutkowski1.50—Sep 8 · 15:00K. Kostyk—M. Rutkowski——Sep 8 · 16:05K. Kostyk—A. Daniel——Sep 8 · 17:40K. Kostyk—L. Pietraszko——Sep 8 · 18:50K. Kostyk—K. Glazowski——Sep 8 · 20:30K. Kostyk—K. Kapik——Sep 8 · 21:00K. Kostyk—M. Rutkowski——Sep 8 · 22:10K. Kostyk—L. Pietraszko——
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